Last week, underdogs of 6-plus points once again crushed survivor entries, continuing a trend this season. So far, underdogs of 6 or more are 11-8 straight up and 16-2-2 (88.9%) against the spread. Looking ahead to Week 6, there are four games where the favorite is laying at least 6 points: Baltimore (-6) vs. Washington, Houston (-7) at New England, Philadelphia (-8.5) vs. Cleveland and Atlanta (-6) at Carolina. Can we trust these bigger favorites this week? Let’s dive into the top recommendations for your NFL survivor pool picks for Week 6.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 6: Texans, Packers or Eagles?
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Texans -7 at Patriots | NFL Survivor Week 6
After shocking the league with a 16-10 road victory against the Bengals in Week 1, the New England Patriots have since come back down to earth, aligning with my preseason expectations of being one of the worst teams in the NFL. However, a major shake-up is occurring within their lineup as rookie quarterback Drake Maye will now take over as the starter.
Despite this announcement, the betting markets haven’t reacted significantly, with the Texans opening as 6.5-point favorites and already ticking up to -7 before the news. The uncertainty around Maye’s NFL readiness, combined with Houston being on the road, makes backing the Texans a bit of a risky proposition. On paper, the Texans should handle the Patriots easily, but they haven’t won any games comfortably this season, with an average winning margin of just 3.8 points. Their largest victory was a 19-13 win over the Bears.
Despite CJ Stroud’s historic rookie season and the additions of running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the Texans offense has been underwhelming. They currently rank 20th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate. Additionally, star wideout Nico Collins was just placed on injured reserve and will miss the next four weeks, and Mixon, who hasn’t played since Week 2, is still listed as questionable.
While I don’t expect Houston to lose, there may be stronger survivor pool options for this week.
Packers -5 vs. Cardinals | NFL Survivor Week 6
Green Bay is laying around -5.5 against Arizona. While that may appear like too many points against a Cardinals offense that has shown flashes of stardom, it’s still a worthy spot to consider the home team for an outright win.
Somehow, the Cardinals managed to pull off an upset against the 49ers last week, despite being 7-point underdogs and trailing by as much as 13 points. A late turnover allowed Kyler Murray and company to march down the field for a game-winning field goal.
However, don’t let recency bias cloud your judgment — just one week earlier, Arizona was crushed 42-14 by the Washington Commanders. Their defense remains a major liability, ranking dead last in success rate and 26th in EPA per play allowed.
The Packers will also see the return of wide receiver Romeo Doubs following his brief suspension, further boosting their offensive firepower against an Arizona defense that ranks last in dropback success rate as well.
The next best time to use Green Bay in survivor pools is Week 13, when they host the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving night. But that’s still a long way off, and there are plenty of quality options during that week. Perhaps this is the right time to back the Pack.
Eagles -8.5 vs. Browns | NFL Survivor Week 6
The Cleveland Browns are in complete disarray. They’ve dropped their past three games, which includes losses to the Giants at home and the Raiders in Vegas, which practically plays like a home game for Cleveland. Most recently, they were pummeled 34-13 by the Commanders.
The Philadelphia Eagles are also coming off their second, and worst, loss of the season — a 33-16 drubbing by the Buccaneers. However, Philly was dealing with significant injuries in that game. Luckily, the bye week came at the right time. While A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are listed as questionable, there’s a strong chance both will return to the lineup this week.
The biggest story for the Browns revolves around their quarterback situation and whether it’s time to bench Deshaun Watson in favor of backup Jameis Winston. The answer should be resounding yes, but the Browns are the Browns and will inevitably make the wrong decision. Watson currently ranks 32nd in EPA per play among quarterbacks, with only Bryce Young ranking below him.
The Eagles are the biggest favorite on the board this week, and for good reason. Coming off their bye, this matchup sets up perfectly for Philadelphia to be trusted to win outright.
Best NFL Week 6 Survivor Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
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