Cash another one! Tampa Bay took care of business last week as we found green on a +145 upset ticket. Let’s do it again, shall we? Week 5 has the makings of another crazy weekend with a couple of dogs barking too loud to ignore. The first month of the season is done and teams have revealed a lot about their identity. Still, there’s some early uncertainty in a couple of games, which presents us with some value on dogs for us to exploit. Let’s turn to Atlanta for our Week 5 NFL upset and underdog pick.
NFL Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 5
Texans-Falcons Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Texans: +110 | Falcons: -130
Texans +2.5: -110 | Falcons -2.5: -110
Over 41: -112 | Under 41: -108
Texans-Falcons Upset Pick
The Falcons have a problem. It’s at the most crucial and important position in arguably all of professional sports: quarterback. The Falcons foolishly decided to announce they were sticking with Desmond Ridder, for at least the foreseeable future, and what did the public do? Rush to the window to bet the Falcons. Atlanta was humiliated on another continent by a mediocre Jags team and returns home against what most people believe is still a bad Texans team.
Most public bettors are behind on everything, so it will take time for them to realize that Atlanta is truly a fraud and Houston is legit. Look no further than the most important position on the field. Atlanta is struggling to come to grips with how bad their new quarterback is while Houston is relishing in the C.J. Stroud era. Last week saw the Texans destroy Mike Tomlin and TJ Watt — despite the Texans starting a third-string left tackle against Watt. All Stroud did was lead his Texans to an emphatic beatdown of the Steelers.
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Houston is riding a two-game win streak behind Stroud, who has yet to throw a pick in his four games as a starter. The offense is supposed to break down each week because of injuries up front, but that hasn’t happened. Meanwhile, Atlanta was able to bounce back on the ground, Bijan Robinson gained over 100 yards, but for the first time this season, a strong performance on the ground did not correlate to victory.
So much of this game comes down to coaching and quarterback play, the rest are important variables, but teams rarely overcome a poor combination of leaders. Ridder is far worse than Stroud — the former struggles to complete NFL passes. Arthur Smith has had more time to establish a resume than Texans coach DeMeco Ryans, but the former still has a sub-.500 record against the spread and garners little to no advantage playing at home. Atlanta, you have a problem.
NFL Upset Pick for Week 4: Texans +110 at DraftKings
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