The Detroit Lions looked impressive this past weekend, barely breaking a sweat against the lowly Carolina Panthers. It’s been a fun season in Detroit, with their lone blemish coming at the hands of Seattle in a shootout. Looking a little deeper into their schedule and what lies ahead for them, the Lions may not be roaring as loudly come Sunday in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are rested following a bye week and have no doubt heard by now how they are underdogs at home. Let’s look at this week’s NFL Upset of the Week and see how far disrespect can take Tampa.
NFL Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 6
Lions-Buccaneers Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Lions: -175 | Buccaneers: +145
Lions -3.0: -110 | Buccaneers +3.0: -110
Over 44.0: -110 | Under 44.0: -110
Lions-Buccaneers Upset Pick
A familiar face headlines this week’s upset pick: Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. The extra time off will prove valuable for both sides of the ball, as the Buccaneers are 3-1 against the spread this year despite losing their only game as a home dog. They were one of five victims of the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, facing an offense that presents a more favorable matchup. Detroit was without Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs in their win over the Panthers, and while both are trending towards playing, the Lions are dealing with injuries to their interior offensive line. Tampa expects to have Mike Evans as he fights back from a hamstring injury that kept him out of most of the game two weeks ago against New Orleans.
The edge is actually going to be found on the defensive side of the ball for the Buccaneers, where they make the most impact. This is a top-10 rush defense in the NFL and will do a great job limiting Lions back David Montgomery. Jared Goff is going to have to make some tough throws under pressure, as Detroit will be turned one dimensional. Mayfield and the offense have been brutal running the football, but that has a chance to change, especially if they can get a quick score early in this game. Playing from behind is not ideal, and Tampa will take some chances looking to avoid any deep deficit.
Tampa Bay faces a tough challenge, with Detroit coming in red hot. This league is all about week-to-week matchups and how that influences any regression. It’s one thing to just rely on that, but finding games that fit that mantra makes the most sense. Mayfield should be able to throw against Detroit’s pass defense; it ranks 19th in passing yards allowed per game and will leave some spots open for the Buccaneers coaching staff. Once Tampa Bay sets the early tone and takes an aggressive stance on offense, it will get a lead and make it increasingly difficult for the Lions to move the ball. The Buccaneers are back!
NFL Upset Pick for Week 6: Buccaneers +145 at BetMGM
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles and Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 6 now!
