No sport returns from its offseason slumber quite like the National Football League. Beyond the opening Thursday night matchup, there’s a ton of games on Sunday that feature great upset value. The schedule is full of intriguing matchups pitting accomplished head coaches against each other, watching a fresh start for rookie and seeing how the heavy favorites match up with predictions. There is no better place to start than in Pittsburgh, where one coach is getting all the love and it doesn’t make any sense. Here is the NFL Upset for Week 1.
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NFL Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 1
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
Odds via BetMGM
49ers: -135| Steelers: +115
49ers -2.0: -110 | Steelers +2.0: -110
Over 41.0: -110 | Under 41.0: -110
49ers-Steelers Upset Pick
The 49ers are road favorites in an out-of-conference game, starting a quarterback coming off a massive injury. To make matters worse for the Niners, Brock Purdy is still trying to claim last year’s success was not catching lightning in a bottle. The Steelers are out to prove the opposite, knowing they face a team with a massive undertaking around the quarterback position. Kudos to anyone who got this spread at +3 when it opened, as the value is now on Mike Tomlin’s crew winning this outright. While it should be enough from a logical standpoint to take the Steelers — Purdy overcoming a major injury while trying to sustain his limited success from last year, and now starting this year on the road — there are quite a few alarming numbers trending towards Pittsburgh. T.J. Watt is the lynchpin in the Steelers defense, but it’s way more than that. Tomlin is 27-12-1 straight up with a healthy Watt — game-changing numbers.
Purdy isn’t the only one trying to prove himself on the Niners side, as his coach Kyle Shanahan needs a turnaround of his own. One of the best current coaches in the game owes a lot of his success to a quarterback that’s no longer on his roster. Shanahan is 44-19 straight up and 37-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, versus 14-30 straight up (20-24 against the spread) without him. A trend is one thing, but that’s including the run last year under Purdy. The kicker lies in the better coach, especially at home in an opener. Tomlin is 11-5 straight up opening the season in Pittsburgh.
NFL Upset Pick for Week 1: Pittsburgh Steelers +120 (BetMGM)
