It is time. Do not listen to anyone who tells you it is too early to be on the NFL, even if that individual is smarter than you and named Ben Rasa. It is never too early! Last year saw a profit of +51 units in the NFL and NCAAF streets on all my public plays on the OddsShopper Discord. A big reason was jumping off on the right foot and nailing a bunch of Week 1 action. The best thing about betting Week 1 early is taking advantage of what is known: Quarterbacks and coaches lose games. Yes, they are the two most important vehicles for success in Week 1, especially with preparation being so vital in the preseason, but it is lack of experience or being overmatched in these areas where teams are routinely undone. Let’s look at the NFL Week 1 odds and the three best locks to bet right now!
NFL Week 1 Odds: Aaron Rodgers’ Jets Debut & More
Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets
Let’s not bury any lead despite moving to the end of the opening week. There are plenty of exciting games, from the Thursday opener through the weekend — including the Cowboys-Giants game. But nothing will be hyped as much as Rodgers making his debut for his new team at home on Monday night against the best team in the AFC East. There are a couple of reasons why the Jets simply make more sense, but nothing is more important than the run game. The Jets are not going to just ask Rodgers to throw the ball 40 times to beat the Bills — or anyone for that matter. There will be a healthy commitment to balancing their offense with a large lean on the run game.
The other side of this is what Robert Saleh can go back to focusing on — primarily stopping the run against other teams. Saleh was in charge of some of the stingiest rush defenses in San Francisco before seeing the numbers dip in his first year with the Jets. They improved last year, holding teams to 122 yards rushing per game (17th overall) and were 10th in the NFL in limiting yards per rush (4.2). The idea is having a capable quarterback and coordinator so Saleh can continue to revamp the defense. Taking the run game away from Buffalo is the first step in the Jets winning this game outright.
Rodgers is 13-2 against the spread in home openers, with an absurd 36-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is 14-1 straight up over those 15 games as well. The last thing is history favoring an aging winner like Rodgers. Peyton Manning in Denver, Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles and even Alex Smith with the 2-14 Chiefs took their new teams to the playoffs in their first season. Rodgers’ thumb is healthy, and the Jets will win the game.
Best Bet: New York Jets +106 FanDuel
Coaching Matters
There is currently a game featuring two division rivals where the wrong team is favored. There just is not any logical reason outside of the public appeal of the favored quarterback and mass hysteria surrounding the other guy. The football logic would say to jump on this home dog right now, be it trend, coaching or recent history. Justin Fields is 5-20 straight up as a starting quarterback in the NFL. That is just putrid. He has two wins against winless teams and beat Trey Lance last year in Chicago’s opener. This is not a resume worth betting on, yet the public cannot help themselves. The reality is, while everyone is focused on the raw talent of Fields, it is Jordan Love who should be getting … well, the love. Shout out to Mike Winsmore for this gem — since 2004 there have been 19 times when a team lost its entrenched (star) quarterback to a trade, free agency or retirement. In Week 1 of the following season, those teams are 15-2-2 against the spread. That is incredible. The human element would indicate that Love, his teammates and Matt LaFleur have been told for months that their team is bad and to not even show up this season. It seems to have a reverse effect.
Since 2009, division home dogs are 22-4 against the spread in Week 1, with an impressive 19-6-1 straight-up record. The total broken into a spread score would indicate the Bears are going to hold the Packers to 20 or fewer points. How? This Chicago team allowed a league-worst 27 points per game and was hammered all day in yards per pass attempt and — even worse — third-down conversion percentage. Speaking of LaFleur, it is not even close in terms of the records of coaches. Matt Eberflus is most likely gone after this year, while his Green Bay counterpart will make the playoffs with a backup. That run starts in Week 1 with the Packers winning outright.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers +120 DraftKings
Repeating Ain’t Easy
The Philadelphia Eagles played a lot of football last year and returned a ton of starters on both sides of the ball. That is clearly a recipe to repeat as division and conference champions, but that does not mean it will not have an effect on them for the start of the season. The Eagles open with a tough road game against a revamped offense — at least mentally — and one of the best coaches with time that the league has ever seen. While Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts will have a super-scaled-down preseason to counter the lingering effects of playing into the Super Bowl, there are two spots that are shaky and exploitable on the Eagles: Coordinators. The Eagles on paper look like nothing has truly changed, specifically that monster offensive line, but such has been the case with most Super Bowl losers returning top talent, and since 2005 they are just 4-14 against the spread in Week 1. Another fact with top offenses is immediate regression factoring in to covering Week 1 spreads. Since 2008, teams finishing in the top 5 in total offense are just 33-40-3 against the spread in the first week of the following season. It is a struggle to keep things flowing each year, especially when starting the season against Bill Belichick.
On that note, the Belichick gets two favorable matchups with opposing coordinators, but first it is the move he made that separates this team from last year. Matt Patricia is out (yes, no one in Philadelphia is happy about his landing spot), and that is a glorious thing. The offense can go back to focusing on maximizing Mac Jones while not asking him to throw 40 times. The run game will test the Eagles interior defensive line and linebackers — one area where the team did lose some starting play. Brian Johnson was bumped up from quarterback coach to offensive coordinator, and while he will not be as integral as Sirianni in executing the gameplan, Johnson will not be standing still holding a clipboard either. He is going to be involved, even calling some plays. That is not great against a seasoned coach/coordinator like Belichick. Johnathan Gannon is in Arizona, which means the new defensive coordinator in Philadelphia is Sean Desai, coming in with just one season of coordinating a defense. Bill O’Brien returns to boost the Patriots offense, while Desai will be learning on the job. Coaching is so vital in the first week of the NFL season that this one is just too juicy to pass.
Best Bet: New England Patriots +5 -110 Caesars
