The NFL is finally back. We got some fun teasers on Thursday and Friday, but once Sunday arrives, we can turn on red zone and turn off our brains for eight hours of commercial free football. What better way to celebrate than with a healthy number of NFL Week 1 player prop picks? That’s what we’re here to provide you with today. If you need help finding sharp bets on your own, check out our NFL player prop betting strategy guide!
NFL Week 1 Player Props: Best Bets for Sunday, September 8
NFL Week 1 Player Props for Week 1 | Best Bets for Sunday
Rhamondre Stevenson Player Prop: O/U 48.5 Rushing Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois. Find all of Isaiah’s expert picks now by clicking here!
Look, I get it. The New England Patriots aren’t an exciting team in Week 1 because of their refusal to start Drake Maye. They’re rolling with Jacoby Brissett instead, which sets up well for what should be a run-heavy game script.
The Patriots have a lot of problems, but Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t one of them. He ranked 11th among 48 eligible players last year in yards after contact per carry (2.1), tying him with… Derrick Henry.
Yards after contact will be important due to the lousy New England offensive line, but they’ll be easier to come by against a possibly worse Cincinnati defensive line.
The Bengals lost longtime nose tackle D.J. Reader in the offseason, leaving them with B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins to pick up the pieces. Reader (82.2 PFF grade) was far more effective than Rankins (64.2) and Hill (67.7).
The loss of talent at the point of attack is an even bigger issue due to the lack of talent at linebacker. Cincinnati’s three listed starters, Logan Wilson (62.6), Germaine Pratt (63.3) and Akeem Davis-Gaither (58.7) do not inspire confidence.
Best NFL Week 1 Player Prop Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing Yards -105 at DraftKings
Austin Ekeler Player Prop: O/U 27.5 Rushing Yards
Pick by Portfolio +EV. Find all of our model picks now!
At OddsShopper, we encourage you to think about sports betting like your other financial investments. You want a robust portfolio of wagers that are to be profitable over the long term to balance risk and reward.
You don’t want to place 50-leg parlays that win far less often than their odds suggest they should.
With that in mind, we’ve put together our portfolio +EV sports betting tools to help you do just that. You can customize your sports betting strategy based on certain parameters like expected win rate, total positive expected value (+EV) and more.
One bet the tools recommend adding to your portfolio: Austin Ekeler under 27.5 total rushing yards. FanDuel is offering this prop at odds of 27.5 despite most other books listing it at 25.5 or 23.5, and they’re charging the same price for it.
This bet should win 55% of the time. If you have a $1,000 bankroll, we’re getting enough edge to make this one worth $13.
Best NFL Week 1 Player Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Under 27.5 Rushing Yards -113 at FanDuel
Joshua Palmer Player Prop: O/U 45.5 Receiving Yards
Pick by Danny Burke. Find all of Danny’s expert picks now — get your first week for $1 with code “BURKESBETS”!
It feels like many are overlooking the strong possibility of Joshua Palmer emerging as the top wideout for the Los Angeles Chargers. With both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams gone, the opportunity is wide open for Palmer to step up. The only serious competition is rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey and an unproven second-year player in Quentin Johnston.
Last season, Palmer played in just 11 games, but he managed to haul in 38 of 61 targets for 581 yards, averaging a career-high 15.3 yards per catch. Now, he’s getting top reps with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Justin Herbert, has a competent coach in Jim Harbaugh stepping in to help design plays and faces a potentially favorable Week 1 matchup against the Raiders.
In the past, Palmer has feasted against Las Vegas. In his last three meetings versus them, Palmer has averaged 4.7 receptions on 7.7 targets, 83.3 receiving yards, and an impressive 21 yards per catch.
Of course, each team’s defense changes every year, so we can’t rely solely on past results for Week 1. However, when inspecting the Raiders’ defense, I do believe their strength will be in the trenches. That could limit the Chargers’ ground game, forcing them to rely more on their passing attack, which could create more opportunities for Palmer to get over his receiving yards prop.
Earlier this week, I dished out Palmer over 44.5 yards through my Premium Discord, and the best number now available is 45.5. I’d still recommend playing that line.
Best NFL Week 1 Player Prop Pick: Joshua Palmer Over 45.5 Receiving Yards -115 at Fanatics
Sam Darnold Player Prop: O/U 225.5 Passing Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois.
We learned a lot about head coach Kevin O’Connell last year once Kirk Cousins went down. Instead of being content to run the ball more, O’Connell trusted whoever was in the pocket to sling the rock. Minnesota ranked third in passing play percentage (63.3%). They did so despite starting the likes of Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs and Jaren Hall.
With Sam Darnold at the controls, O’Connell has his best passer since Cousins. Although T.J. Hockenson is still out, Darnold will get to work with Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, the two of which form a deadly duo that can beat you all over the field.
The New York Giants have invested heavily in their defensive front, but that investment hasn’t extended to their secondary. With safety Xavier McKinney (87.5) off to Green Bay, it’s up to an unproven set of safeties and cornerbacks to slow down O’Connell’s pass-heavy scheme.
Specifically, Dane Belton (50.7) and Jason Pinnock (67.8) will replace McKinney at safety. Those two will be tasked with bailing out cornerbacks Deonte Banks (51.5) and Cor’Dale Flott (53.4). With O’Connell so willing to throw the ball — and New York stacked in the trenches — look for the Vikings to assert themselves vertically.
Darnold might lead the NFL in passing yards after Week 1.
Best NFL Week 1 Player Prop Pick: Sam Darnold Over 225.5 Passing Yards -120 at Fanatics
