It’s ba-ack! The 2023 NFL has finally arrived, and player prop markets have returned with it. Our staff is locking down some action on four NFL player props for Week 1’s afternoon slate. OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 1, including Lamar Jackson, for Texans-Ravens, Eagles-Patriots and more.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and Week 1 picks. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Lamar Jackson, Dallas Goedert & More
Buccaneers-Vikings Player Prop Bet
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Who: Rachaad White at DraftKings
The Tampa Bay Buccanneers have a difficult matchup against the Minnesota Vikings on the schedule. The Tom Brady era came to a disappointing end in Tampa, and now the Buccaneers will have to make do with Baker Mayfield. Unfortunately for the former first-overall pick, he won’t get much help from this offensive line. The Buccaneers ranked 25th in pass-block win rate last year and relied on Tom Brady’s quick processing speed to make up for their struggles in the trenches.
Mayfield lacks Brady’s processing speed, which means the Buccaneers are likely to give him less intricate plays with which to work. I suspect that’s good news for running back Rachaad White, who now gets the backfield mostly to himself with Leonard Fournette gone. Behind him, Tampa Bay only has undrafted free agent rookie Sean Tucker, Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Chase Edmonds. Even though Tucker has flashed some upside, expect White to get all the snaps he can handle.
White found ways to contribute as a receiver early in his NFL career. He took over as the starter in Week 10 and proceeded to average 3.8 receptions for 19.4 yards per game, beating his prop total of 18.5 in four of those eight games. The Vikings coughed up the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs last year at 39.3 per game. Veteran inside linebacker Eric Kendricks is gone, leaving Jordan Hicks and Brian Asamoah II to pick up the slack. Both struggled in pass coverage last year and allowed passer ratings of 101.4 and 110.4 when targeted, respectively.
Best Buccaneers-Vikings NFL Player Prop Pick for Week 1: Rachaad White Over 18.5 Receiving Yards -110 at DraftKings
Bengals-Browns Player Prop Bet
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Who: David Njoku at FanDuel
David Njoku made the most of his opportunities in the five games he played with quarterback Deshaun Watson last season and will look to finally put it all together with the best quarterback he has ever gotten to play with. The former first-round pick has one of the most athletic frames at the tight end position in all of football and is primed to break out after arguably the best season of his career.
The first week of the NFL offers a great opportunity for bettors to find soft lines. We have one here. FanDuel is the only book at the time of publication to offer this line at 33.5 yards. Caesars Sportsbook has Njoku at 34.5 with the juice on the over. The rest of the market has settled at 35.5. With a low receiving line like this, every yard matters. Be sure to use OddsShopper’s tools to shop the best lines.
The Browns will be slight underdogs at home against the Cincinnati Bengals which is no surprise. The reigning AFC North champions are the favorites to win the division while the Browns may have to settle for a Wild Card spot in the competitive AFC. With Sunday’s total set to 47.5, a higher number than we’ve seen in years past between these two teams, the books are signaling some confidence in both offenses.
The Bengals can put up points in a hurry with their explosive offense, which bodes well for us. The Browns should be throwing early and often and now have to settle with just Nick Chubb out of the backfield after deciding not to bring back Kareem Hunt. In the lone game last season that Watson and Njoku suited up together against the Bengals, Njoku reeled in seven catches on nine targets for 59 yards in a 23-10 defeat. Expect another positive game script for Njoku and him to be leaned upon heavily this season in year two with Watson.
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Best Bengals-Browns NFL Player Prop Pick for Week 1: David Njoku Over 33.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Texans-Ravens Player Prop Bet
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Who: Lamar Jackson at Caesars
When the Baltimore Ravens parted ways with Greg Roman and brought in Todd Monken from Georgia, they made it clear that their run-first playbook was a thing of the past. While Monken should still call plenty of rushing plays — and quarterback Lamar Jackson will certainly scramble on some designed passing plays — I’m a big believer in the new-look offense. Expect Jackson to show off his arm and his new receivers against the lowly Houston Texans on Sunday. I need some exposure to Lamar Jackson in the Texans-Ravens player prop markets.
Let’s back Jackson to cross the 225-passing yard mark on Sunday. He may have cleared that bar in only 21 of his 61 regular-season starts, but most of those came with Roman calling the plays. Jackson now gets a more balanced play-caller and has plenty of new weapons to work with, including rookie Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. While veteran tight end Mark Andrews is questionable, he was able to log limited practice sessions all week and should suit up. Even if he can’t go, Isaiah Likely proved quite capable at the position last year.
Although Houston’s defense only coughed up 222 passing yards per game last year, largely because opposing teams ran all over them, new head coach DeMeco Ryans will make some meaningful changes. Houston now has a solid defensive line that features rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and free-agent defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. But although the Texans bulked up in the trenches, they still have some questions at cornerback — Derek Stingley Jr. earned a 49.1 PFF grade last year. With veteran safety Jimmie Ward not ready for Week 1, Jackson’s wideouts should be open downfield often.
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Best Texans-Ravens NFL Player Prop Pick for Week 1: Lamar Jackson 225+ Passing Yards -103 at Caesars
Eagles-Patriots Player Prop Bet
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Who: Dallas Goedert at FanDuel
The chemistry between Dallas Goedert and Jalen Hurts is not only unmatched but underrated. He gets outshined by top duo A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside, but Goedert has filled the shoes of Zach Ertz as best as one could and is now seen as a top-five tight end in the league. The reigning NFC champions will battle the New England Patriots on the road as four-point favorites in what many presume to be a dogfight. If there’s one coach in the league that you don’t want preparing to play for you for months, it’s Bill Belichick.
Hurts could have a nice day on the ground come Sunday. Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields each had historic games on the ground against the Patriots last season, but I expect Belichick to gameplan against Hurts and his legs. This should open up check-downs to Goedert, who has the potential to take a reception for 15-plus yards, which he did in 12 of 15 games last season.
The Patriots, like the Lions did on Thursday Night, will try to control the clock and keep the lethal Eagles offense off the field. They may have some trouble doing that. DraftKings has New England’s team total set at 20.5 juiced to the under. Philadelphia’s defensive front is one of the best units in the league and is loaded with veterans and young Georgia Bulldogs. Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to play come Sunday but is dealing with a stomach bug issue. This put a ton of pressure on quarterback Mac Jones to move the ball down the field. I’ll gladly side with the Eagles on that side of the ball.
Last season, the Eagles ranked in the top five in time of possession due to their top rushing attack. With Miles Sanders now in Carolina, and the Patriots presuming to gameplan against Hurts’ legs, give me Goedert to shine in the middle of the field and eclipse over 40 yards as he did in 11 of 15 games last season.
Best Eagles-Patriots NFL Player Prop Pick for Week 1: Dallas Goedert 40+ Receiving Yards -120 at FanDuel
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