The NFL season is upon us, which means it’s time to start making predictions and cashing bets on them. We have a loaded Week 1 card in store that features great games like Lions-Chiefs and Jets-Bills — but I’m more interested in some of the less popular spots where there is more betting value. Of course, I’ve still got picks for the marquee games. Let’s dive into my NFL Week 1 predictions so that we can talk about the best NFL picks for Packers-Bears, Rams-Seahawks and more Week 1 action.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
NFL Week 1 Predictions: Picks for Packers-Bears, Rams-Seahawks and More
Lions-Chiefs NFL Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Lions: +190 | Chiefs: -200
Lions +5.5: -110 | Chiefs -5.5: -105
Over 52.5: -112 | Under 52.5: -108
For updated Lions-Chiefs odds and picks, click here!
In the 2023 season opener, the Detroit Lions will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. It’s been an eventful offseason for both teams, but the Chiefs may have gotten worse than we fully appreciate. Gone are both of last year’s starting tackles, Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie, and replacing them are two worse performers, per PFF: Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both gone, too, with only a possibly-still-injured Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson left to pick up the slack. On defense, defensive end Frank Clark is gone, and tackle Chris Jones is still holding out. Now tight end Travis Kelce might miss Week 1, too.
Everybody is still in love with the Chiefs after their impressive Super Bowl performance. They lead in the power rankings at almost every site — not this one, though — largely because of the elite combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. But let’s not forget that Mahomes has struggled behind bad offensive lines before, which is why the Chiefs sprung to acquire Brown in the first place. It’s well within the realm of possibilities that the Chiefs are trading at the highest price they’ll trade all season because of how much has changed in the offseason. Jones scored a PFF grade of 92 last year while Clark scored a 67.2. The Chiefs have no one of that caliber behind them who is ready to take over.
The Lions, meanwhile, actually got better in the offseason — but they were already pretty good, too. Detroit’s offense ranked a steady sixth (0.07) in expected points added (EPA) per play in 2022. Although Detroit still trailed Kansas City’s league-leading unit (0.18), they showed more than enough potential, especially with several key pieces like wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown missing time. Detroit’s defense ranked a putrid 31st (0.08) in EPA allowed, well behind 15th-ranked Kansas City (0), but the Lions added some pieces to help change that. Cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley are now in town, as are rookie linebacker Jack Campbell and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Who knows where the Chiefs are trading at by kickoff, but if you can get the Lions plus anything more than a field goal, that’ll be hard to pass up. The Chiefs are good, Mahomes is great, but the market is far too high on a much worse Kansas City squad. Also, the Chiefs weren’t so great against the spread last year, anyway — they went only 8-11-1 and were just 3-6-1 at home. It feels weird to fade the defending Super Bowl champions at home, but just remember what happened to the Los Angeles Rams last season after they hemorrhaged talent on both sides of the ball.
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Lions-Chiefs NFL Week 1 Pick: Detroit +5.5 -115 at FanDuel
Bengals-Browns NFL Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bengals: -134 | Browns: +114
Bengals -2.5: -110 | Browns +2.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
For updated Bengals-Browns odds and picks, click here!
Can Deshaun Watson return to form? Will Joe Burrow suit up for Week 1? Those are both reasonable questions, but I’m willing to bet the answer to both of them is yes. Watson struggled after returning from his suspension, but his disastrous performance was so far below his career average that some regression feels inevitable. Likewise, Burrow might be worse for wear on Sunday, but he has progressed steadily since his injury, all signs point to him playing, per Ian Rapoport, and the Browns are preparing for him to start.
But even if both quarterbacks aren’t their old selves, they’ll have an easy job ahead of them in Week 1. The Bengals lost safety Jessie Bates III in the offseason, which will significantly hurt their secondary — Bates recorded a PFF grade of 76.8 last year, and the Bengals don’t have a good replacement — second-year safety Dax Hill scored a 58.1 last year, better than the 54.2 veteran safety Nick Scott recorded with the Rams. Bates’ contributions have been important for a Bengals team that lacks talent at boundary cornerback, so his absence could spell disaster.
The Browns had a notoriously bad secondary last year that gave up game-winning comeback drives to Joe Flacco and Marcus Mariota. Cleveland didn’t do enough to fix its secondary in the offseason. The Browns are betting on a bounce-back campaign from Denzel Ward, who was one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL last year, per PFF. Safety Juan Thornhill comes over from Kansas City to join Grant Delpit, but I’m just not convinced that those two are good enough to compensate for poor play on the boundary, which is that much more significant because the Bengals boast both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Cleveland and Cincinnati met twice last season, and those games are an interesting measuring stick for this one. In their first meeting, the Burrow-led Bengals put only 13 points on the board — all of which came in the fourth quarter — with Chase sidelined. Jacoby Brissett led the Browns to 32 points, good for a final total of 45. In their second meeting, Watson struggled and led the Browns to only 10 points, while Burrow and Chase helped the Bengals put up 23 without Higgins. With both Cincinnati receivers healthy, a likely better Watson under center and a worse Bengals secondary, give me the over at anything under 51 as one of our NFL Week 1 picks.
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Bengals-Browns NFL Week 1 Pick: Over 47.5 -110 at Caesars
Buccaneers-Vikings NFL Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Buccaneers: +210 | Vikings: -255
Buccaneers +6: -110 | Vikings -6: -110
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
For updated Buccaneers-Vikings odds and picks, click here!
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the misfortune of visiting the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, meaning their home faithful will have to wait to truly welcome Baker Mayfield to Tampa Bay. The Vikings aren’t great, but they went on a tear last season, winning the NFC North handily but getting sent home from the playoffs early by Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. Both teams lost some key pieces in the offseason, but the Buccaneers are categorically worse for wear than the Vikings — losing star quarterback Tom Brady is a huge hit, and star center Ryan Jensen, who was supposed to be available for Week 1, is still on injured reserve. The defense remained mostly intact but lost some pieces like linemen Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Akiem Hicks, while the secondary lost safety Keanu Neal.
The Buccaneers will turn to Mayfield under center, which, if Tampa Bay’s offensive line plays like it did last year, could prove disastrous. Brady has elite processing speed and spent just 2.2 seconds in the pocket per play last year, but Mayfield took 2.5 seconds with the Panthers and 2.6 seconds with the Rams. Tampa Bay’s offensive line recorded a pass-block win rate of just 55%, which ranks 25th, worse than what both the Panthers (62%) and Rams (61%) recorded. Mayfield’s slower processing speed will test Tampa Bay’s offensive line further, and right tackle Luke Goedeke, who recorded a 43.7 PFF grade last year, and rookie right guard Cody Mauch could get exposed early, limiting Tampa Bay’s ability to get the ball downfield.
I didn’t love what the Vikings did in the offseason, but they’re still a much better team than the Buccaneers, and their offense is still scary. Losing defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson to Cleveland will hurt more than some realize, but at least Khyiris Tonga looked steady last year. Linebacker Eric Kendricks is gone, thrusting Brian Asamoah II into a larger role. Incoming are defensive ends Marcus Davenport and Dean Lowry, both of whom posted solid numbers last season. They should help shore up the pass rush enough to pressure Mayfield in his debut. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is still in town, and he’ll get to work with some exciting playmakers in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison. Cousins ranked 20th in adjusted EPA per dropback (0.08) last year, which isn’t great, but it was far better than 37th-ranked Mayfield (-0.11).
I think the spread for this game is efficient: Minnesota deserves to be a touchdown favorite. However, we can eke out some value on the moneyline as part of a teaser. Minnesota slots in at only -250 (71.4%) to win Sunday’s game, which is more an overestimation of the Buccaneers than an underestimation of the Vikings. Mayfield will struggle behind a thin, inexperienced group of blockers, and the Vikings should roll through the Buccaneers for an easy home win. They could take it by more than a touchdown, but pair this NFL Week 1 moneyline pick with the moneyline pick for Rams-Seahawks to build a sharp teaser bet.
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Buccaneers-Vikings NFL Week 1 Pick: Minnesota Moneyline -250 at BetMGM (Teaser Pick)
Rams-Seahawks NFL Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Rams: +200 | Seahawks: -245
Rams +5.5: -106 | Seahawks -5.5: -114
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
For updated Rams-Seahawks odds and picks, click here!
Some folks are really high on the Seattle Seahawks heading into 2023, and while I’m still somewhat skeptical of Geno Smith’s ability to maintain his high level of production from last year, I like the roster construction going on in Seattle. Meanwhile, the Rams are rebuilding, and I don’t expect them to truly contend this year. Their strategy of aggressively trading their future draft picks got them a Super Bowl victory, but they now have to face the consequences of their reckless overspending. The wheels started to come off last year, but with several veterans departing in the offseason, including star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, linebacker Bobby Wagner, safety Nick Scott and pass rusher Leonard Floyd, things are about to get much worse.
There was a massive disparity between these teams last year, and that will only grow this year. The Rams ranked 29th in EPA per play (-0.08) and 21st in EPA per play allowed (0.02). The Seahawks ranked 13th in EPA per play (0.01) and 26th in EPA per play allowed (0.03). Seattle’s defense should overtake their division rival in the metric with the addition of several interesting names, including defensive ends Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed, who should shore up a shaky rushing defense, along with Bobby Wagner, who returns from L.A. Safety Julian Love and cornerback Devon Witherspoon should help this secondary improve dramatically. They’ll work with last year’s fifth-round cornerback, Tariq Woolen, who surprised most by recording a PFF grade of 71.6 in his first season.
The only possible argument in favor of backing the Rams here is the return of veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. However, the benefits L.A. will reap from his return would easily be offset by Cooper Kupp’s absence if he can’t play. Without him, Stafford’s best targets aren’t all that impressive — Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Puka Nacua and Ben Skowronek are all low-ceiling weapons that can’t sniff Kupp’s production. Offseason rumors that Stafford was struggling to learn the names of his young teammates don’t mean much, but they at least offer some insight into how different — and worse — this Rams team will be this year.
Again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle knock off L.A. by a single touchdown, which is where the spread for this game currently sits. However, with Seattle trading at only -250 (71.4%) on the moneyline, I’m eager to add this leg to a teaser. The new-look Seahawks, who most expected to struggle last season, significantly beat expectations to make the playoffs. Although they weren’t facing much pressure to perform then, I expect them to roll into this season with momentum and beat a Rams team that is virtually unrecognizable from the one that won the Super Bowl just a few seasons ago. Let’s start the season by making Seattle moneyline one of our top NFL Week 1 predictions.
Rams-Seahawks NFL Week 1 Pick: Seattle Moneyline -250 at BetMGM (Teaser Pick)
Packers-Bears NFL Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Packers: +102 | Bears: -118
Packers +1.5: -118 | Bears -1.5: -104
Over 43.5: -110 | Under 43.5: -110
For updated Packers-Bears odds and picks, click here!
The Chicago Bears will host the Green Bay Packers in their season opener. The Bears will finally have a chance to take advantage of a Packers team in transition — with Aaron Rodgers gone, Green Bay will turn to Jordan Love and an inexperienced cast of receivers. Although the Bears looked terrible last season and earned the first overall pick, they also showed serious flashes at points. They won three games and suffered seven one-score losses, most of which came before the team actively sold key personnel like linebacker Roquan Smith and edge rusher Robert Quinn at the trade deadline.
The Bears are favored to beat the Packers at home, but only by the slimmest of margins — Chicago is a narrow one-point favorite. That suggests the books believe Green Bay is the better team, which, after this year’s offseason, makes little sense to me. The Bears filled the gap created by the Smith trade by signing Tremaine Edmunds from the Bills. They strengthened their receiving corps by trading for D.J. Moore and bolstered their offensive line by drafting tackle Darnell Wright in the first round. Wright joins a line that looked solid last year — left tackle Braxton Jones recorded a 75.4 PFF grade as a rookie, and the unit trailed only the Chiefs in pass-block win rate. The Bears also picked up pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue as well.
Green Bay’s front office didn’t make any offseason moves to suggest that they intend to contend this year. They let wide receiver Allen Lazard walk, along with aging veteran defensive linemen Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry, who both inked multi-year contracts elsewhere. No big-name free agents came in and two tight ends — who notoriously struggle as rookies — were drafted before Day 3. The Packers secured some exciting young developmental pieces like Luke Musgrave, one of their new tight end, and pass rusher Lukas Van Ness, but it’s hard to imagine that this front office has serious plans to contend in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Bears signaled that they believe in this roster — or that they at least believe in rookie quarterback Justin Fields enough to give him a season with some more talented teammates. Ngakoue came in on a one-year, $10.5 million deal. The Bears also signed DeMarcus Walker, a 28-year-old defensive end, to a three-year, $21 million contract, as well as David Montgomery, a 25-year-old running back, to a three-year, $18 million contract. Chicago’s front office believes in what it’s putting together, but I’m not convinced Green Bay’s does, and I expect these teams’ differing points of view will have consequences for their on-field production. Let’s back the Bears with this NFL Week 1 pick.
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Packers-Bears NFL Week 1 Pick: Chicago Moneyline -115 at DraftKings
Bills-Jets NFL Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bills: -138 | Jets: +118
Bills -2.5: -110 | Jets +2.5: -110
Over 46.5: -105 | Under 46.5: -115
The Aaron Rodgers era will begin in New York on Monday. The veteran quarterback comes over from Green Bay, where he missed the playoffs just one year after winning his fourth MVP Award. He replaces a bad Zach Wilson in a New York offense that features plenty of talented weapons, including running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Rodgers brought over Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb from Green Bay, both of whom made the 53-man roster, and will have one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses supporting him. The Jets ranked sixth in EPA allowed per play (-0.05) last season, and they pressured opposing quarterbacks 25.4% of the time, third-most in the NFL.
There are a lot of things to like about the Rodgers-led Jets, but the offensive line isn’t one of them. The Jets will trust veteran Duane Brown at left tackle and struggling prospect Mekhi Becton at right. Brown recorded a PFF grade of 57.8 last year. Becton has played only 48 snaps since the end of the 2020 season. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and center Connor McGovern recorded grades of 52.2 and 56.8, respectively. It should come as no surprise, then, that the Jets ranked 21st in pass-block win rate (57%) and 30th in run-block win rate (69%). For comparison’s sake, the Packers ranked fifth (66%) and eighth (72%) in those metrics last season. The Jets are betting on Rodgers’ processing speed to make up for poor blocking, but that means quicker routes and shorter gains.
The Buffalo Bills will visit MetLife Stadium for Rodgers’ debut, and they could cause some problems for him on Monday night. The Bills took on Rodgers last October and held him to only 203 yards and two touchdowns, securing a 27-17 victory in the process. Rodgers didn’t face a ton of pressure — the Bills pressured him on only 15.2% of his dropbacks — but Rodgers struggled to move the ball regardless. Safety Jordan Poyer deserves plenty of credit, as does linebacker Matt Milano, who picked off Rodgers. The Bills may not have Von Miller this week, but they added Leonard Floyd to shore up their pass rush, and they’ll have both cornerback Tre’Davious White and safety Micah Hyde healthy for this one after they missed last year’s Packers game.
With two elite quarterbacks taking the field, it’s easy to forget about just how good both of these defenses truly are. Buffalo tied with New York in EPA allowed per play last season. The Bills went 11-7 (61.1%) to the under while the Jets went an NFL-best 12-5 (70.6%). The Jets lost some weapons on defense like linemen Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd, but the key pieces — tackle Quinnen Williams, cornerback Sauce Gardner and linebacker C.J. Mosley — are still in town. Even if New York’s defense loses a step, Buffalo’s shouldn’t, and this game should easily stay under a lofty total. Even though 58% of the tickets have come in on the over, 68% of the cash is on the under, making this NFL pick a sharp prediction for Week 1.
Bills-Jets NFL Week 1 Pick: Under 46.5 -110 at DraftKings
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