Each week the NFL provides its own brand of craziness unmatched by any other sport. Now is the time for the confidence pool to ramp up our own intensity as we have five upsets this week! It’s the point of the season where bumping up higher confidence upsets will gain more leverage, especially if you’ve taken a hit the recent week or two. There are still some logical favorites to smash so don’t get too crazy! Here are our NFL Week 10 Confidence Pool Picks!
NFL Week 10 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 10 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
- Buffalo Bills (-345) vs Denver Broncos
Denver should be fresh off a bye week and handling the Kansas City Chiefs at home. The problem for the Broncos – amid a bunch of internal issues – is they face one of the most desperate teams right now in the NFL. Bad teams this late in the year aren’t desperate, they are deflated. Teams like the Bills with playoff aspirations and a myriad of injuries – especially on defense – still have some life left. Unfortunately for Sean Payton’s crew, that great feeling of victory will be short lived from the Chiefs game.
- Baltimore Ravens (-245) vs Cleveland Browns
Here come the Ravens. No, seriously – here comes one of the few teams with a realistic shot to win the Super Bowl. Partly because they don’t have to go up against themselves in the playoffs, the other is how efficient both sides of the ball are playing. Lamar Jackson is steering this ship with smart play and a ton of talent.
They are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and play ridiculous defense, holding both the Lions and Seahawks to just one combined TD. The Browns come off a big win over someone named Clayton Tune and are touting they found some momentum. Nonsense as Deshaun Watson has been a beacon of inconsistency all year.
This is a heavy hitter for 13 points as the Browns offense won’t be able to keep up, and Jim Schwartz’s defenses hit a little harder at home versus on the road.
- Seattle Seahawks (-258) vs Washington Commanders
Seattle was the latest victim to a scorching hot Ravens team but should not be forgotten this week. Fade Seattle at home at your own risk as this game gets bumped up for 12 points. Washington really is the fade here as some obvious regression back to the mean is expected for Seattle – especially returning home.
Their defense is aggressive, physical, and can cause turnovers. Washington escaped defeat against a Patriots team so bad they are truly considering firing the best coach of all time. Unfortunately for Washington, they will be reminded this week they are just a bad team that shipped their two best defensive players during the deadline. The Seahawks are going to punish the Commanders up front and beat them down all game.
- Detroit Lions (-135) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers won two straight with a point differential of 57-19, allowing less than 14 points to each of their opponents. They happened to be the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, but hey, they technically go down as wins so Brandon Staley is happy.
LA has beaten the Vikings – before their recent spurt, the Raiders – before they fired their coach and benched their QB, the Bears – who lost their starting QB, and the Jets – who also lost their starting QB. It’s ridiculous to think the Chargers are doing anything other than losing to a much better team.
This is dropped to 11 because while LA’s defense is atrocious, and the Lions should be able to run and throw all day, Justin Herbert and this offense can move the ball. They have at times even in defeat, plus they play at home despite not truly having a home field advantage.
- Dallas Cowboys (-1100) vs New York Giants
Dallas isn’t going to lose; they nearly beat the Eagles and are good enough to bounce back against the Giants. Dak Prescott played great against the Birds, and they should have their way with the Giants defense, not to mention suffocate their banged-up offense. Neither Jalen Hurts nor Patrick Mahomes could walk into MetLife on Sunday and lead this pitiful Giants team to victory.
They might cover that ridiculous spread but no need to dive deep into an obvious win for a team that’s hammered bad teams all year.
- New Orleans Saints (-135) at Minnesota Vikings**
Feel free to bump this up even higher if you are starting to slip in your contests as this is the best upset pick of the week. Joshua Dobbs restored life in the Vikings locker room as they won their fourth game without Justin Jefferson. Dobbs barely had a week to prepare for a game he basically won without the best wide receiver in the NFL.
Did you know if you bet Dennis Allen’s team ATS each game you would be down over 18u? On top of that, he has a 26% chance of covering as a favorite. Forget the spread, any spread, Allen has a 26% chance of winning and covering. Derek Carr is 2-6-1 ATS after blowing another cover last week against Chicago. Only a fool would fade the Vikings as Minnesota has new life in their search for a playoff spot. Whatever is dumber than a fool would be the person riding Dennis Allen and Derek Carr.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-166) vs Green Bay Packers
Congratulations to the Packers who snapped a four game losing streak by beating a QB that’s no longer on a team. They only scored 20+ points one time during that skid, and three of their eight games overall. Pittsburgh loves games like those especially against a QB so easy to scheme as Jordan Love. Green Bay still has a massive issue at the position and whatever that win was last week isn’t fixing it long term.
That locker room is still questioning their QB and will be reinforced after the first turnover. Pittsburgh has a healthy Kenny Pickett and won three of their last four – beating Baltimore and losing to one of the conference’s best teams in Jacksonville. The Steelers are good this year as their defense is allowing them to take some chances on offense. Tomlin should have something extra special for Love this week.
- San Francisco 49ers (-160) at Jacksonville Jaguars**
Another upset bumped up the list as Jacksonville should be favored at home. The Jags are coming off a bye as Doug Pederson’s team won five straight before the break. It doesn’t matter the opponent as Trevor Lawrence and the offense seem to adapt quickly in games, allowing for some breathing room for their defense.
Two big road wins for Jacksonville before their bye should be a major advantage against a 49ers team that’s just coming back from injury. Neither Zay Jones nor Deebo Samuel may play this week, but San Francisco drastically needs their guy to win this game.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-295) vs Houston Texans
CJ Stroud is just amazing. His ability might be second to his poise which is unmatched from a rookie QB in quite some time. This kid has command of his offense and the game and is a weapon each week. The Bengals come off a huge win, emotions flying and knowing they needed to jump ahead of Buffalo ultimately for any wild card spot.
Now they take on a dangerous Houston team that will come away a loser, but that doesn’t remove Cincy from the upset watch.
- New York Jets (-118) at Las Vegas Raiders**
The rest of these teams are just way too volatile to put any higher, even for an upset. The Raiders are the better football team; Aidan O’Connell the better QB and Davante Adams better than any offensive weapon provided by the Jets. It’s early, but the Raiders seem to respond to their new coach better than the Jets with their seasoned vet in Robert Saleh.
New York handed over a football game to the Chargers in rather embarrassing form. Their defense still played amazing, but their offense can duplicate that performance again.
- Indianapolis Colts (-120) at New England Patriots
The Colts aren’t bad when they aren’t turning over the football. The Patriots are rumored to be firing Bill Belichik following this season. Maybe in-season if they lose this game? It’s an utter disaster up in New England and many fanbases are preparing to celebrate another loss.
The Patriots had a prime opportunity to take down a Washington squad that traded away their two best defensive players, instead it was a total mess. Hard to think there’s any remaining rally call or really any life left at all for New England.
- Chicago Bears (-190) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Bears are finally getting some reps from Tyson Bagent to at least establish some consistent connections with Cole Kmet. The Panthers are lost as they have the anti-Stroud in Bryce Young. Carolina will be lucky to put up 10 points in this game, mostly due to their QBs inability to make basic throws under pressure.
Chicago should win this game, but then again they are the same Bears team that just blew two early leads against the Saints and have just one road win.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-113) vs Tennessee Titans**
Another good spot for Mike Vrabel as he’s a tight road dog in Tampa. Good teams take what happened last week with the Bucs then bounce back with a strong performance. At 3-5 it’s just hard to argue Tampa is anything close to that. That type of loss carries over and should ultimately undo a team led by Baker Mayfield.
Will Levis is their starter for the rest of the year as Tennessee should simply show more fight with a better prepared team.
- Atlanta Falcons (-117) at Arizona Cardinals**
The Cardinals should get a nice push with the return of Kyler Murray, but they are still having significant issues on defense. Who knows what Murray looks like returning from a serious injury and it may limit his mobility.
The Falcons defense has fallen off a cliff and as they have dropped their last two games. This is a gross football game where the edge goes to the home team with a recognizable upgrade at QB – even if Murray isn’t 100 percent.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for NFL Week 10 now!
