Player prop betting is one of the best parts of NFL season, and with us arriving at Week 10, we’re beginning to run out of opportunities to do it. We’ll still have the playoffs, of course, but by then the must-fade defenses will almost certainly have been eliminated. Our staff has identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 10, including Christian McCaffrey, for 49ers-Jagaurs, Falcons-Cardinals and more Week 10 action.
NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Christian McCaffrey, Kyler Murray & More
49ers-Jaguars Player Prop Bet | Week 10
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.
Who: Christian McCaffrey at FanDuel
The San Francisco 49ers had a rough few weeks before their Week 9 bye, but they’ll benefit from some extra rest before this one, and I suspect the time off will help Brock Purdy settle back down — and, you know, get over his concussion. One beneficiary of this should be running back Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 36.5 receiving yards per game on the year. Although the return of Deebo Samuel will reduce Purdy’s need to check the ball down, it should also create more openings in the short-yardage game for McCaffrey to exploit.
The road matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars should also benefit the star running back, especially as a receiver. The Jaguars have allowed the fewest total rushing yards to running backs on the year (449), likely because they field a stingy defensive front that ranks sixth in run-stop win rate (33%). Opposing teams have opted to involve their running backs as receivers against the Jaguars, and it’s worked nicely for them — the Jaguars have coughed up the most receptions (60) and the fourth-most receiving yards (395) to the position.
Recent games have highlighted Jacksonville’s struggle against running backs who can catch. Najee Harris caught five passes for 42 yards against them. Harris’ teammate, Jaylen Warren, added another 19 receiving yards on four catches. Alvin Kamara led the Saints in receiving yards with 91 on 12 receptions a week before that. Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss combined for 11 receptions and 82 receiving yards just one week before that. McCaffrey is a more talented receiver than all of those players, and I expect him to flash his receiving chops on Sunday.
Best NFL Week 10 Player Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 30.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Titans-Buccaneers Player Prop Bet | Week 10
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
Who: Derrick Henry at PointsBet
The reason why this Derrick Henry receiving yards prop bet is a total smash fest is because PointsBet is offering it at 10.5 yards, while every other book is at least a yard worse! So, you’re going to want to fire it up on PointsBet immediately. OddsShopper’s model has this bet winning nearly 60% of the time. You know, that tool that has helped us to a 15-4 winning streak on these props. It says jump, I ask how high. Or, rather, it says, “This is a good bet, smash it,” and I say, “HULK SMASH!”
Henry has cleared this 10.5-yard mark in seven of his eight games. He has hit the over in his last five games as well. The Titans are showing more of a willingness to let the big dog eat in the passing game, as he has averaged almost three targets per game in his last five contests.
The Bucs’ defensive stats against running backs look a little better than they should because they’ve faced teams that don’t utilize them in the passing game outside of the Saints and Lions. In those games, they gave up almost 60 receiving yards to Detroit’s running backs to go with 33 receiving yards for Alvin Kamara.
Obviously, Henry isn’t the pass-catcher Kamara is, but if he’s getting three targets per game to help out as a safety valve for rookie quarterback Will Levis, we’re absolutely hammering this over for his 10.5 receiving yards.
Best NFL Week 10 Player Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Over 10.5 Receiving Yards for -130 at PointsBet
Texans-Bengals Player Prop Bet | Week 10
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Who: Robert Woods at DraftKings
What year is it? It may be 2023, but we’re still getting some action down on longtime veteran wide receiver Robert Woods. The 31-year-old veteran found his way to Houston this offseason to provide some veteran leadership in a young and inexperienced receiving room, and with lead option Nico Collins, I expect the veteran slot receiver to step up on Sunday. Woods is expected to make his return from a multi-game absence due to injury. Woods is averaging 37.8 receiving yards on 7.2 targets per game, but the books are listing his receiving yardage prop at only 32.5. Pathetic!
Woods beat the 32.5 in Weeks 1, 2 and 3 with 57, 74 and 34 total receiving yards. He went for only 26 yards in Week 4 and 30 in Week 5 before getting injured after recording only six in Week 6. Although the downward trend is concerning, the absence of Nico Collins this week frees up 78.9 receiving yards and 6.6 targets, and they’ll have to go somewhere. Unfortunately for quarterback C.J. Stroud, none of his reserves can quite fill the shoes of the 6-foot-4 Collins — 6-foot-2 Noah Brown is the next-best option on the boundary, with 6-foot Robert Woods slotting in ahead of 5-foot-8 Nathaniel Dell.
I like Woods in this spot because the Cincinnati Bengals have recently struggled to stop receivers over the middle. To some, this may look like a unique issue against tight ends, as Dalton Kincaid racked up 81 yards on 10 receptions last week, while George Kittle went for 149 yards on nine receptions the week before. However, Kincaid and Kittle are just two of their offense’s best players in the middle of the field — Seattle’s Tyler Lockett, who also fits that profile, racked up 94 yards on six receptions against them earlier in the year. Look for Woods to record at least average numbers in his return to the Houston offense.
Best NFL Week 10 Player Prop Pick: Robert Woods Over 32.5 Receiving Yards -115 at DraftKings
Saints-Vikings Player Prop Bet | Week 10
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Who: Joshua Dobbs at FanDuel
Last week must’ve felt like a fairy tale for Joshua Dobbs. After spending less than a week as a member of the Vikings, Dobbs was called into action after starting quarterback Jaren Hall took a shot in the red zone that knocked him out of the game. Dobbs came in and saved the day — kinda. Before his historic win, the Atlanta Falcons got to Dobbs for a safety and forced a fumble. It got much better for Dobbs after he got acclimated with his new team. He threw two touchdown passes, including the game-winner with 22 seconds left. Oh, and Mr. Do It All also ran for a touchdown.
The matchup gets much more difficult for Dobbs against a Saints team that has relied on their defense to keep them in games this season. The Saints defense has been no slouch against opposing quarterbacks this season. They’re allowing the fifth-fewest yards per completion and the second-lowest completion percentage. But if we look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced, it makes sense: Tyson Bagent, Gardner Minshew and Mac Jones are just some of the few names they’ve faced. I would take Dobbs this season over all of those quarterbacks, especially with the weapons he has at his disposal. Justin Jefferson is unlikely to play, but T.J. Hockenson should be a full go come Sunday.
FanDuel currently has the edge with Dobbs at 201.5 passing yards while the rest of the market is settled at 208.5. Look for the Vikings’ new leader to be given full rein of the playbook after a week of practice with the first team and try to take the top off the New Orleans defense with rookie Jordan Addison — especially with Minnesota’s run game struggling. Alexander Mattison is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry.
Best NFL Week 10 Player Prop Pick: Joshua Dobbs Over 201.5 Passing Yards -114 at FanDuel
Falcons-Cardinals Player Prop Bet | Week 10
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ari.
Who: Kyler Murray at bet365
He’s ba-ack! Quarterback Kyler Murray makes his return to the Arizona Cardinals this weekend, and boy, do they need him. Murray takes over for backup Clayton Tune, who in turn took over from backup Joshua Dobbs. Although it’ll be his first start in just under a year, bettors should have some expectations for Murray, especially against a bad Atlanta Falcons team. The Falcons coughed up four passing touchdowns to rookie Will Levis in his first-ever start, so why can’t Murray pass for a pair of scores?
The sportsbooks aren’t quite sure how to handicap Murray’s passing touchdown line. You’ll find it set to 1.5 everywhere with the juice varying from +144 at FanDuel to +180 at bet365 (and +185 at WynnBet if they still operate in your state!). Given Atlanta’s recent struggles against Levis — and their overall struggles on the year — backing Murray to throw for a pair of scores is sharp. OddsShopper’s model thinks this bet should win 38% of the time, which may not sound like that often, but it’s more than enough to be profitable when the implied odds sit at only 35.7%.
Aside from the bad game against Levis, the Falcons have struggled to keep opposing quarterbacks out of the end zone. The Falcons have coughed up 17 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in nine games, good for 1.9 per contest. Joshua Dobbs threw for a pair of scores against the Falcons despite having less than a week to learn his team’s playbook. Jordan Love, who has thrown only 12 touchdowns this year, hung three passing touchdowns on the Falcons earlier this year. If those guys can reach — or even exceed — this line, why can’t Murray?
Best NFL Week 10 Player Prop Pick: Kyler Murray Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +180 at bet365
Commanders-Seahawks Player Prop Bet | Week 10
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Lumen Field, Seattle
Who: Antonio Gibson at PointsBet
This Antonio Gibson player prop has won at an 80% clip over the last five weeks. We’re going to continue riding with this trend for the Commanders’ running back.
While every other book has Gibson’s receiving prop at 16.5 or more, PointsBet has given us a 15.5 against the Seahawks this week. We’re not just betting on this line — we’re freaking NUKING it! That one yard might not seem like a big deal, but it can be the difference between cashing and being poor. I’m just saying.
Gibson has 24 or more receiving yards in three straight games and in four of his last five. He has seen five targets each of the last two weeks as well, which would be huge for us this week. Gibson is averaging right around three targets per game, but the uptick has been due to the Commanders playing from behind. There’s no reason to think they won’t be in catch-up mode against the Seahawks. If we get the five targets he has seen the last few games, it’s a virtual lock for him to smash the over 15.5.
Best NFL Week 10 Player Prop Pick: Antonio Gibson Over 15.5 Receiving Yards for -125 at PointsBet
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