Frank Reich fell victim to what most coaches endure when seeking revenge with inferior talent. This column is not making that mistake again, relying on any quarterback who can’t make a simple out pass. Instead this week’s upset focuses on one of the most unbelievable stories this year… and yes, it involves a quarterback. Nonetheless, onto our NFL Week 10 upset pick and underdog pick.
The bad news for a New Orleans Saints team that barely got by a broken-down Bears squad is it doesn’t get any easier this week. The Saints hit the road and take on a Vikings team with a ridiculous amount of momentum. Not to mention belief, thanks to Joshua Dobbs. Let’s head to Minnesota!
NFL Week 10 Upset & Underdog Pick
Saints-Vikings Odds
Current line has Saints as -2.5
Saints-Vikings Upset Pick
Derek Carr and his head coach Dennis Allen are just atrocious as road favorites. Dating back to previous spots, neither have anything worthwhile or even close to a profitable record as road favorites. Following their latest non-cover, the Saints saw Allen and Carr fall to a pitiful 2-6-1 ATS record this year.
The line currently sits at 2.5. In turn, Carr has to lead his team to victory on the road while covering the biggest key number in the game simply to avoid a push or loss. Last week’s blunder was at home and New Orleans needed everything in the tank to survive.
There’s no easy come back or get right spot this week. Certainly not against a Vikings team that is getting healthier by the week and found a temporary replacement for Kirk Cousins. Meanwhile Carr is so bad he fell to a career 71-78-1 ATS record, which includes home games and neutral fields. That’s awful but it’s not Dennis Allen awful.
The Saints head coach comes in with an awful record against the spread, specifically as a favorite. While it’s bad for Allen anytime on the road – covering just 48% of the time – it’s insanely worse for the guy when he’s a favorite. Allen has a 26% chance to cover any game in which his team is favored. That includes not being able to handle last week’s spread.
Once again, Allen and Carr are simply not fit for this spot as road favorites no matter who the opponent is. A blind fade of Dennis Allen’s teams anytime they are favored is proven to win. He’s just that bad.
Well, what hat about the other team? The one that lost their franchise quarterback to a season-ending injury? The one that just shocked the world with their brand-new quarterback fresh off the plane is going to be fine.
While Justin Jefferson will probably be activated off the IR in the next days, he will most likely miss this weekend. The Vikings are 4-0 since losing the best wide receiver in the NFL. They are also 1-0 since Dobbs came off the plane and started running all over the field, making some amazing throws in the process.
For all the talk about not having Cousins or Jefferson, this team still found a way to move the ball, score points, and keep a tough defensive presence. Last week was the first time over their four-game win streak where they surrendered more than 20 points. This is another favorable matchup against Allen and Carr. The Vikings enter this week 10th in overall defensive EPA and are all of a sudden brimming with confidence. The Josh Dobbs effect; don’t miss out on this one.
NFL Week 10 Upset Pick: Vikings +122 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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