Heading into NFL Week 11, OddsShopper is showing a bunch of value on player props for Sunday’s games. I am going to highlight a couple in this article, but there are dozens of great bets available in the betting model if you are looking to grow your bankroll this weekend. Let’s get to the best NFL Week 11 betting model predictions.
NFL Week 11 Betting Model Predictions | November 19
Before we get into my Week 11 picks below, check out my results so far in 2023 using OddsShopper Premium’s betting model picks and other tools. If you are not using OddsShopper to find positive expected value and profit more, you should be.
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Dak Prescott O/U 33.5 Pass Attempts
This line is a little scary due to blowout risk. Dallas has a great matchup on paper against the Panthers, who have the worst record in the NFL at 1-8. With this said, Dallas is on the road, so the spread isn’t too wide. The Cowboys are favored by 10.5, so starters are more likely to be in the game than not in the fourth quarter. Last week, the Cowboys beat the Giants by 32 and Prescott went over this number with 35 pass attempts.
NFL Week 11 Betting Model Prediction: Dak Prescott Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-114) at FanDuel
Kyler Murray O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Murray didn’t have any touchdown passes last week, but he still played well in his season debut. Coming back from an ACL injury, what was most encouraging to see was his rushing ability. Despite the one-year layoff after a catastrophic injury, Murray ran six times and had a rushing touchdown.
My takeaway from last week is that Murray is totally healthy and the stats should follow. At +165 odds to have multiple touchdown passes, this bet only has to win more than 37.7% of the time to rate out as +EV. OddsShopper projects the bet to win 41% of the time, and Murray had multiple touchdown passes in five out of the 10 games in which he played all four quarters last season.
NFL Week 11 Betting Model Prediction: Kyler Murray Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165) at bet365
