Things are starting to heat up in the AFC North, cool off for the Buffalo Bills, and are through the roof in Houston. Welcome to another wild week in the NFL with another rendition of confidence pool picks. Yes, we have underdogs winning outright. This is also a good week to bump up some closer games, including one repeat dog we think wins outright, again. Here are our NFL Week 11 Confidence Pool Picks!
NFL Week 11 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 11 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
- Dallas Cowboys (-520) at Carolina Panthers
This isn’t some strong hammer on the all-powerful Dallas Cowboys. It’s more just a complete fade on Bryce Young figuring out how to play football in a week. To nobody’s surprise, Dallas barely broke a sweat last week. The Panthers have a few extra days to prepare after suffering their eighth loss earlier in the week to the Bears.
There are letdown games, but Dallas is still fighting for an outside chance to win the NFC East, plus there’s always someone yelling something down there to light a fire. Carolina isn’t the upset team to back this week.
- San Francisco 49ers (-560) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This isn’t the week to back anyone crazy either. The Niners answered the bell last week after three straight disappointing weeks. Tampa failed to take advantage of a couple of gift-wrapped matchups against a suspect Titans team. Time officially ran out on the Bucs for them to convince anyone – including themselves – they are a bounceback type of team.
No, they are just a bad team that gets bounced. The Niners get healthier and continue to set their sights on Philadelphia atop the NFC. Maybe if the Niners didn’t lose three straight before winning last week, then there’s ground to stand on overlooking their opponent. It’s actually the opposite where they tune up Tampa.
- Houston Texans (-192) vs Arizona Cardinals
The Texans are on a magical run led by one of the best rookies in quite some time. CJ Stroud has taken over the NFL, and certainly his own locker room in the process. There is an incredible sense of belief within this team that seems unsusceptible to any massive letdown.
Another thing that removes a heavy case of the letdowns is increased hype or buildup of their opponents. The Cardinals are hoping Kyler Murray can continue to look like his old self, picking up a rushing TD in last week’s victory. It’s enough to keep the Texans focused. The Cardinals have no shot of containing Stroud, be it his talent of confidence.
- Miami Dolphins (-650) vs Las Vegas Raiders
This might not be a popular spread play but in any ML confidence pool this should be high on your list. The Dolphins are rested and know what they are up against, a dangerous Raiders team with a new identity. Vegas is also desperate which can be dangerous against a heavily favored team this late in the season.
The only thing the Raiders have done well overall is limit the passing game on defense, partly because it’s so easy to run all over them. Miami might take a little bit to shake off the mid-season bye, but this won’t be a barnburner by any standpoint.
- Denver Broncos (-130) vs Minnesota Vikings**
As expected, the world overreacted to one of these teams while trying to remain as cautious with the other. Of course, the world got it wrong, as the team to be cautious about is favored – albeit at home – and the one to load up on is catching points. The Vikings may get Justin Jefferson activated this week, which would be the biggest bonus for an already 5-0 team without him.
Josh Dobbs has the Vikings locker room believing like Stroud in Houston, and the Vikings defense has responded in nearly all those games. Denver took advantage of a Chiefs team that was in one of the worst trend and data spots of the season, a walking upset ready to happen. The other two wins came against broken teams in the Jets and Bills. The Vikings are a proven contender while the Broncos are paper champs of the basement.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-270) vs Tennessee Titans
A brutal showing for Jacksonville last week at home against the Niners. Not just deflating for the fans, but for anyone expecting the Jags to take advantage of the Niners weaker pass defense. This is the week. If there’s ever a chance to learn from one’s mistakes, Doug Pederson found a teaching moment heading into this division battle.
Mike Vrabel may be a road dog darling, but his secondary is too shredded to compete. Trevor Lawrence left a lot of throws all over the field last weekend, so don’t expect the same result this week. Jacksonville should come out rather aggressive against Tennessee, enough to create some early distance and arrive safely to victory.
- Detroit Lions (-480) vs Chicago Bears
Dropped a little this week but the Lions should still win this game. Chicago is struggling to score points and it gets no easier against Detroit’s defense. The Bears defense should have a decent gameplan against a familiar Lions team, it’s just Chicago isn’t talented enough to execute.
They did increase their pass rush by adding Montez Sweat, so don’t be shocked if life isn’t easy for Jared Goff. Even if stifled a bit, the Lions should still outgain and outscore the Bears. It’s just a matter of time.
- Baltimore Ravens (-177) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Being a heavy favorite inside the division just hasn’t worked well for Lamar Jackson. That bodes well this week as the Ravens look to return to form. The Bengals may have been caught looking ahead to this matchup, losing outright at home to CJ Stroud’s Texans.
But that’s just it; the Bengals looked ahead to a game they can’t win, and the Ravens just lost in a spot they normally lose – or at least don’t cover. The Bengals are still giving up more total points than any other team in the AFC North, while scoring the second fewest behind the Steelers. If any team bounces back from last week, it’s the Ravens – in resounding fashion.
- Seattle Seahawks (-105) at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams seem broken despite getting their starting QB back this week against Seattle. Matthew Stafford looks to stop a three-game skid by returning from a thumb injury, not the best boost of confidence by any means. The team was struggling with and without him and face a Seattle team eager to stay along the Niners atop the NFC West.
Seattle has done it primarily by scoring in bunches while keeping balance on defense. Holding off the Commanders may seem like a step down, but Washington’s offense was relentless in hostile territory. Seattle gets a break this week with a smaller road trip against a familiar coach. The Rams may have a pair of electric receivers when healthy, but they don’t have a capable quarterback to throw the ball.
- Washington Commanders (-440) vs New York Giants
There’s a legit chance of an upset here because the Commanders exerted their final burst of energy against Seattle. Sam Howell has looked fantastic and comfortable running this offense, but Washington still comes off a deflating road loss in overtime. They take on a divison opponent that is noticeably worse, but also comes off an ass kicking last week.
Two straight blowout losses might be enough to give the Giants an added boost. Normally that won’t work against better teams, but Washington is still struggling on defense after trading away their two best players.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-148) vs Philadelphia Eagles**
The Eagles are playing incredible football as they hit the bye with the league’s best record. The Chiefs also come off their bye, something Andy Reid has mastered from a SUATS standpoint. The difference is what each team has overcome to get to their respective spots, granted only a game difference.
The Eagles played some sloppy football but have found other ways to win games outside of just Jalen Hurts. AJ Brown is one of the top three receivers in the NFL and they still have an incredible offensive line. The Chiefs haven’t done that yet; win without Mahomes. They may not be built that way, but it’s simply not going to start against the Eagles. Whoever outruns their opponent by 30 or more yards wins this game. The safer bet is the Birds outrush the Chiefs.
- Los Angeles Chargers (-162) vs Green Bay Packers**
The Chargers had a major chance to prove a lot of doubters wrong by simply beating the Lions. It was close, the offense did its job, but the defense did not. It looked like the Chargers defense left the building at the half, hoping Justin Herbert would cover the check.
That’s been the story of this Chargers team since Herbert was drafted; score a ton of points and give up a ton more. The problem comes when they either face a significantly better offense, or a defense that can limit Herbert. The Packers should put some pressure up front and force the Chargers offense off the field.
Green Bay’s passing game should look improved simply because their opponent is terrible, but they also wont be able to run on LA as much. Jordan Love can always throw away a game, but it’s going to be hard against this Chargers defense.
- Cleveland Browns (-192) vs Pittsburgh Steelers**
The Steelers and Browns each come off thrillers last week as they fight atop the AFC North. Pittsburgh needed some late heroics to knock off lowly Green Bay, but Mike Tomlin has historically struggled as a strong favorite. The Browns shocked a lot of people, ruining a bunch of survivor pools by beating the Ravens.
Cleveland’s defense is better at home but the Steelers may have found a source of scoring on offense. Especially since Kenny Pickett wont be asked to throw 40 times in a loss. Hard to count on the Browns offense week to week, especially after a huge win like last week. Deflating or simply tough to duplicate; Cleveland is going to find it hard to keep up against the Steelers pass rush. Back Tomlin and TJ Watt before anything else.
- Buffalo Bills (-278) vs New York Jets**
It shouldn’t matter who wins this game with only one point attached, but for the purposes of any edge, take the Jets. A point may matter, even this week! Don’t overlook it just because neither of these two teams deserve your attention, instead a chance for the Jets to keep playoff hopes alive.
Those hopes died at home for the Bills following an epic collapse, mentally too, that saw multiple turnovers and absurd calls. Buffalo simply can’t bounce back from anything because they don’t have the stability at the qb position. Josh Allen is now more volatile than Zach Wilson and can lose a game even worse than Wilson. Nothing wrong with taking the Jets defense to force more mistakes by Allen, just don’t bump this game up higher than a point.
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