The NFL playoffs are quickly approaching, so if you’re looking to take advantage of soft defenses with player prop bets, your time is quickly running out. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois, Justin Martin and Nathan Joyce have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 10, including Josh Allen, for Jets-Bills, Chargers-Packers and more Week 11 action.
NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Josh Allen, Austin Ekeler & More
Cowboys-Panthers NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 11
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 19 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Who: Bryce Young at bet365
When the Carolina Panthers moved up to select rookie quarterback Bryce Young in this year’s draft, they were likely hoping for some stronger early returns. Unfortunately, the Alabama product has struggled to adapt to the NFL — although a bad receiving corps and struggling offensive line may be more of the issue than Young himself. Young’s top receiving options are veteran Adam Thielen, the longtime second option in Minnesota, DJ Chark Jr., rookie Jonathan Mingo and veteran tight end Hayden Hurst. His offensive line ranks a shaky 19th in pass-block win rate (54%).
Young now draws a frightening matchup with the Dallas Cowboys this week. The Cowboys are coming off a 32-point clubbing of the Giants in which they tormented rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. DeVito was picked off once, took five sacks and generated just 61 net passing yards. But while DeVito couldn’t do much through the air, he managed to gain 41 rushing yards on seven attempts. The Cowboys have now surrendered the eighth-most total rushing yards to quarterbacks at 246, good for 27.3 per game.
Although Young hasn’t done a ton of running in the NFL, we know from his time at Alabama that he can make splash plays with his legs. Young has run 20 rushing attempts to his name this year, 18 of which were tracked as scrambles. He turned those attempts into 135 rushing yards, good for 16.9 yards per game. Young has recorded at least 11 rushing yards in five of his eight starts this season, and Dallas’ defense is a perfect target for him to pick up some more yards on the ground.
Best NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bet: Bryce Young Over 10.5 Rushing Yards -110 at bet365
Titans-Jaguars NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 11
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 19 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.
Who: Will Levis at BetMGM
You may not care much about rookie quarterback Will Levis, but he has started his NFL career off relatively well. He scored a five-point home win over the Atlanta Falcons in his debut for the Titans. Of course, Tennessee has since dropped two games, one to the Pittsburgh Steelers and another to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, both of which came on the road. Levis attempted exactly 39 passes in both defeats. He threw only 29 times back in his lone win. Let’s see what OddsShopper’s model thinks about his props:
As you can see, some books are higher on Levis’ projected volume than others. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has his total pass attempts prop set to 32.5 with the over priced at -131. FanDuel is close behind with the total at the same number and the over priced at -130. Some other public books have the total listed at 33.5 with the juice relatively balanced. However, BetMGM has the over 32.5 priced at an off-market -105. OddsShopper’s model has the “true odds,” or the estimated win rate, of this wager set at -114, so we’re getting a solid deal over at BetMGM. If you haven’t signed up over there, check out our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500!
If you’re still skeptical about this wager, there are a few other factors that point to passing volume aplenty for Levis. For one, the Titans are touchdown underdogs to the Jaguars, so they’ll likely employ a pass-heavy game script as they play from behind. The Titans are also on the road, where Levis is yet to attempt fewer than 39 passes. Lastly, though Tennessee was once known as a run-first team, the regression of Derrick Henry has led their passing play percentage to jump from 50.9% to 57.9% this year — and to 60.3% with Levis under center.
Best NFL Week 11 Player Prop Pick: Will Levis Over 32.5 Pass Attempts -105 at BetMGM
Steelers-Browns NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 11
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 19 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
Who: Jaylen Warren at DraftKings
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a two-headed monster in Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris that many did not expect to lead their offense to a 6-3 record. Yes, the defense has been atop the league and is the culprit of them being in striking distance of the top spot in the AFC North, but the running back duo has been sensational — especially Warren. Warren’s 31 touches in the last two weeks are just six fewer than Harris’.
While both the running backs have been highly efficient with their touches, they’ll be tested on Sunday against a Browns defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards this season. However, the unit coughed up more than 100 last week against the Ravens. Quarterback Kenny Pickett doesn’t offer the same rushing ability as Lamar Jackson, but the presumed game script should favor both running backs.
As of publication, the Steelers come into action as 1.5-point underdogs against a Browns team that will be playing without Deshaun Watson for the rest of the season. Not only is this game nearly a pick ’em, but the total is the lowest of any game on the slate at 32.5 points. All that means is Warren and Harris will be workhorses come Sunday. I expect the Steelers to run Warren as much as possible as the two continue to split the backfield. Head to DraftKings for the best number of this NFL player prop bet. FanDuel is offering a much better price but a three-yard difference. Give me the vig with the better number.
Best NFL Week 11 Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 36.5 Rushing Yards -135 at DraftKings
Bears-Lions NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 11
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 19 at 1 p.m.
ET Where: Ford Field, Detroit
Who: DJ Moore at FanDuel
If we look at the last three games before Justin Fields was injured, he was absolutely peppering DJ Moore with targets. And why wouldn’t he? Moore is the only real offensive weapon the Bears have outside of Fields’ legs.
From Weeks 4-6, Fields targeted Moore 27 times. He looked his way no fewer than eight times per game. Let’s face it, no one else, besides maybe Cole Kmet, has done much to earn targets for the Bears.
The Bears are 7.5-point dogs, so, let’s face it, they’re more than likely going to be trailing for a majority of this game, and will be needing to throw the ball. A lot. We might not get efficiency from Moore, but we should get volume. And that’s all we need to cash this bet.
Best NFL Week 11 Player Prop Pick: DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions for -112 at FanDuel
Raiders-Dolphins NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 11
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 19 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Who: Michael Mayer at FanDuel
Rookie tight end Michael Mayer may not have done much in the NFL yet, but he was a headache to defend in college, and we’re starting to see that version of him emerge for the Las Vegas Raiders. It took a while for Mayer to play meaningful reps for the Raiders: he began the season by playing on less than half the team’s snaps. However, Mayer’s snap share has rocketed to 85% or more over his last three games. After participating in less than half of the routes from Weeks 1 through 5, Mayer logged a career-high 81.5% route participation rate in Week 8 and has stayed above 55% in both games since.
Mayer’s increased workload hasn’t translated into game-breaking production, but he has been consistent enough to warrant a look here. After catching just one pass from Weeks 1 through 5, Mayer has averaged 2.5 catches and 29.3 receiving yards per game since Week 5. That includes four performances with 18 or more yards, which would be enough to cash the over at FanDuel, as his receiving yardage prop sits at just 17.5 over there. With rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell now starting, Mayer should benefit from playing more of a safety valve role.
The Miami Dolphins have struggled to stop opposing offenses this year. The Miami defense has coughed up 509 total receiving yards to tight ends, good for 56.6 per game. The unit stymied Travis Kelce in Frankfurt last weekend, but backup tight end Noah Gray still led the team in receiving yards with 34. The week before, New England’s Pharaoh Brown, Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki tallied 72 receiving yards. The Dolphins should lock in on Davante Adams this week, leaving Mayer open for enough looks to get 18 yards.
Best NFL Week 11 Player Prop Pick: Michael Mayer Over 17.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Chargers-Packers NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 11
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 19 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
Who: Austin Ekeler at FanDuel
Let’s just start this off by recognizing that OddsShopper’s model has this Austin Ekeler prop bet listed with a 60% win rate. And y’all already know, whenever I see a number like that from our projections, I’m smashing it.
The Chargers feel like they’re always missing one or two important players because of injury. Tight end Gerald Everett hasn’t practiced all week, tight end Donald Parham Jr. and wide receiver Keenan Allen are both banged up and have been limited all week. Oh, and did I mention that both Joshua Palmer and Mike Williams are still on injured reserve?
So, who the hell is left for the Chargers?
That was rhetorical. Austin Ekeler has gone over this 3.5 receptions number in four of his six games this season — but it should be five of six if he didn’t have butter fingers in that Jets game where he dropped approximately 371 balls. The Packers give up the seventh-most receptions per game to opposing running backs, and that’s Ekeler’s specialty. He has seen 22 targets over the last three weeks and should see a steady dose of them again this week. With all the injuries piling up for the Chargers’ receiving options, I’m all in on this Ekeler over 3.5 receptions prop.
Best NFL Week 11 Player Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 3.5 Receptions for -150 at FanDuel
Jets-Bills NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 11
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 19 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
Who: Josh Allen at Caesars
The Denver Broncos handed Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills a brutal home loss on Monday Night Football last week. The Bills will remain at home for this one, but they’ll face a New York Jets team that beat them in overtime back in Week 1. The Bills have since fired their offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, replacing him with quarterbacks coach Joe Brady. Brady most recently worked as the offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers from 2020 to 2021. His tenure in Charlotte didn’t go well, but he now gets to work with Josh Allen, a major upgrade from his options in Carolina: Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and a washed-up Cam Newton.
Quarterback runs were a noticeable part of Brady’s playbook in Carolina. Bridgewater averaged a career-high 18.6 rushing yards per game with Brady. Likewise, Darnold also averaged a career-high 18.5 rushing yards per game with Brady. The two players, usually viewed more as pocket passers, averaged 3.5 and four rushing attempts per game, respectively. Brady now gets a mobile quarterback in the prime of his career, and I expect him to call plenty of effective quarterback runs for Allen.
Allen’s matchup with the Jets also makes me eager to get action on the over. The Jets have coughed up the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year with 275, good for 30.6 per game. Allen picked up 36 yards with his legs on six carries against them earlier this year. Allen ran for a total of 133 yards against the Jets last season, including a season-best 86-yard showing. New York’s impressive defensive line often forces opposing quarterbacks out of the pocket, and several have found ways to generate yards by scrambling: Patrick Mahomes ran for 51, Russell Wilson for 49 and Jalen Hurts for 47 in consecutive weeks back in October.
Best NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bet: Josh Allen Over 30.5 Rushing yards -115 at Caesars
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