Thank you, Josh Dobbs! The newest quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings did it again, cashing another NFL upset pick of the week in the process. There’s just something about riding the hot hand in professional sports, especially when circumstances demand it. It’s one thing if this Vikings team – winners of now five straight – were to take on the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs, but no, the Vikes sit ahead of their week 11 matchup as another underdog. This time it’s the Denver Broncos going down as an improbable favorite. Let’s head to Denver!
NFL Week 11 Upset & Underdog Pick
NFL Odds for Vikings-Broncos Pick
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Vikings-Broncos Upset Pick
Denver may have just ended Buffalo’s season with a monster road victory on Monday night. Despite winning three straight and one of those wins coming over the Chiefs, the Broncos are still a tight favorite at home against the Vikings. Apparently beating two broken teams in the Packers and Bills hasn’t transferred into confidence from the books, or maybe it’s taking on an even hotter team that looks unstoppable right now.
The Broncos are doing this truly one dimensional with a couple of plays by their QB, but Russell Wilson is mostly giving way to the run game. So before we fawn over the amazing job done by Dobbs and this Vikings offense without Justin Jefferson, here is the biggest reason why the Broncos get stopped in their tracks. They simply won’t be able to run the football.
Sean Payton’s resurgence as a competent head coach won’t last long… its been masked by desperation. Payton had no choice but to move away from throwing the ball and instead just pounding the ground with Javonte Williams.
The Packers weren’t going to do much, the Bills lost a bunch of defensive starters, and even the Chiefs were in a total letdown spot ahead of their game in Denver. Looking at one thing the Vikings do best on defense, it’s stopping the run, especially over their most recent stretch.
Over the last three games, only four other teams in the NFL are slowing down opposing running backs better than the Vikings. Minny is allowing just 83 rushing yards per game over their last three contests, which is even better than the 98.8 yards per game on the season.
This game now comes down to which quarterback is better with the ball in his hands. Hard to think it’s Wilson over Dobbs when the Broncos are actively trying to take it away from Wilson — or at least limit chances in the air. The Vikings are at their best when things break down and Dobbs is on the move. In turn, encouraging more runs by Dobbs in the playbook will help the passing game.
Even if Jefferson is activated and somehow dresses to play, that serves more as a bonus,especially for every other Vikings receiver. Dobbs should be able to have his way with the Broncos secondary so long as he gets an ounce of protection. As a running QB he also puts an immense amount of pressure on a Denver defense unable to stop anyone on the ground. Denver is the worst rush defense in the NFL by average, allowing a league worst 158.3 rushing yards per game. The Broncos have a better chance of snow or rain slowing down an opposing running attack than anyone on their own team.
Winning on the road hasn’t been a problem for the Vikings – three of their five wins in this streak have come away from home. The Broncos only have an advantage when the opposing QB is handing over the football – see Josh Allen on Monday night. Despite dominating the turnover battle, the Broncos barely defeated the Bills.
Dobbs won’t implode like Allen did, and the Broncos won’t get as many scoring chances as they did against Buffalo. The Minnesota magic continues riding another upset special to victory as the imposter Broncos helplessly watch at home.
NFL Week 11 Upset Pick: Vikings +112 (BetRivers/SugarHouse/Unibet Sportsbook)
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