What a week for football! We have three Turkey Day games plus standalone Friday action. That’s the appetizer before another jam-packed Sunday slate. Plenty of options around the NFL for some upsets and bumping up some shorter favorites. Now is the time to start taking risks, either to climb back up the ladder or distance from the pack. Here are our NFL Week 12 Confidence Pool Picks!
NFL Week 12 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 12 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
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16. Detroit Lions (-345) vs. Green Bay Packers
Load up on a Lions team that may have been a little lucky, but they made their own breaks surviving to their eighth win of the year. Green Bay took advantage of some obvious holes in a broken Chargers defense, not to mention just another meltdown by Los Angeles.
The Packers may have some familiarity with the Lions in division but won’t get the benefit of mental breakdowns often seen in Chargers games. The Lions keep finding ways to win games, even ugly ones. They won’t lose this one even if they don’t cover the spread.
15. Kansas City Chiefs (-395) at Las Vegas Raiders
Patrick Mahomes has visibly had it with the lack of production from his receiver corps – specifically catching the football. The Chiefs established the run against the best run defense in the NFL, as KC ran through the Eagles on Monday night. The Raiders snapped back to reality after suffering a loss last week to the Dolphins.
Another prolific quarterback with an expected bounce back for Travis Kelce. The Chiefs are motivated following a rough prime time loss, where the Raiders aren’t good enough to play spoiler. Aidan O’Connell won’t be keeping up with Mahomes in any capacity.
14. Baltimore Ravens (-200) at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 12 should be a good starting point for ramping up risks in building your confidence pool. Bumping up dogs helps gain ground but there’s still some inherent risk betting any underdog to win outright. Another strategy is finding a discernable edge between a closer favorite – Baltimore at 2-1 is a prime example.
The Ravens take their show on the road, winning four of five so far away from Baltimore. There’s little reason to think the Chargers will experience the same level of success as last week in running the football. Baltimore’s defense will travel as will the smart money on MVP – Lamar Jackson.
13. Tennessee Titans (-180) vs. Carolina Panthers
Another example of loading up on a shorter favorite mainly taking advantage of Carolina’s quarterback play. Bryce Young continues to struggle adjusting to the game which is music to Mike Vrabel’s ears.
The Titans always seem to have ridiculous pressure on them each year without any change to Vrabel’s seat, this could be one last defensive statement. The Panthers defense is certainly good enough to fluster Will Levis, but not to counter their own issues at the position.
12. Indianapolis Colts (-134) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Colts return from the bye fresh off a two-game win streak. While their opponents may not be impressive – wins at Carolina and New England – they came away from home which is never good. Beating bad teams on the road is a fantastic confidence boost for any squad sitting with any remaining playoff hopes.
The good news for Indy is they still get to face a bad team but at home against the Bucs. Since their bye week, the Bucs have dropped five of their last six games, beating only the Titans at home. Their offense can’t score enough to keep up with their poor secondary, so expect Indy to dial up some deeper throws to test Tampa.
11. San Francisco 49ers (-286) at Seattle Seahawks**
Thursday night football for the Niners and Seahawks in Seattle, it just happens to be Thanksgiving Day. It’s the first of two straight Thursday night games for the host Hawks but the only one at home. It’s a massive motivator for a Seattle team that’s been shaky as of recent, dropping two of three.
Things may look rough as Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, and Tyler Lockett are all on the injury report. Walker stands the greatest risk of not playing, but having Smith to lead the offense will be the difference. San Francisco dropped three straight games then returned from a bye to smash the Jaguars.
They would have blasted anyone in their path at that point. They followed it up with a beating of the lowly Bucs – not awe inspiring by any means. Pete Carroll versus Kyle Shannahan with plenty on the line; take the bettor motivator at home.
10. Miami Dolphins (-450) at New York Jets
The Dolphins brought the Raiders back down to earth but not by any convincing fashion. They walk into a dangerous situation taking on a familiar defense and new energy in the locker room. It wouldn’t matter at this point who the starting quarterback is for the Jets, but Tim Boyle gets all the benefit of change.
Zach Wilson hits the bench, and the Jets have a newfound sense of belief. It happened with the Raiders, it happened with the Vikings after Josh Dobbs took over for an injured Kirk Cousins. Miami has a tough matchup against an opponent looking to make the offense one dimensional.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (-170) vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo needed a win against Zach Wilson’s offense to convince themselves they’ve changed direction, this after losing three of four. Josh Allen is a turnover magnet, and while Jalen Hurts has struggled at times with turnovers, it hasn’t hurt his team nearly as much. The Bills are constantly fighting with injury and internal mistakes just to grind out a game.
The Eagles are on a similar path but are doing it from a sense of almost comfort. Hurts continues to lead comebacks and the pass rush is just wave after wave of intensity. The Eagles are just a better version of the Bills, with a massive offensive line and better run game.
8. Minnesota Vikings (-175) vs. Chicago Bears
The Vikings are not expecting Justin Jefferson to return this week, but they’ve won plenty of games without him. Not an idea strategy, but it’s masked if Minnesota can simply return to form before losing at Denver. Maybe it’s the wheels coming off the Joshua Dobbs experiment, but a better bet the team responds against Chicago.
The Bears have been hanging around in their games, despite dropping three of four. Their lone win came against Carolina which may have the worst starting quarterback in the league. The Vikings will test Chicago’s defense by asking Dobbs to carry some of the workload on the ground. Justin Fields is back, clearly an upgrade at the position for Chicago, but Fields struggled to win even when healthy. The Vikings bring back some magic with a win over the Bears.
7. Denver Broncos (-134) vs. Cleveland Browns***
The Browns continue to stake their claim in the AFC North as they narrowly trail the Ravens atop the division. Cleveland responded by losing Deshaun Watson with a sound game plan good enough to hold on against the Steelers. While Kenny Pickett is a drop off from Russell Wilson, the Broncos quarterback is still in full regression mode.
The Browns play notably better on defense at home versus on the road but it’s worth taking a shot on Cleveland’s defense to win this game. Myles Garrett is the odds-on defensive player of the year and is a wrecking ball. Both teams want to run as much as possible and neither wants to rely on their quarterbacks. It might come down to a Broncos mistake or two, something they won’t overcome against the Browns punishing defense.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (-116) at Houston Texans***
C.J. Stroud is unbelievable. The Texans dropped their first two games and have reeled off a 6-2 record ever since. Stroud is a much responsible for his team’s success as any other quarterback in the NFL. The Jaguars responded as expected following a massive beatdown at the hands of the Niners by destroying Tennessee.
Trevor Lawrence and the offense looked great against the pitiful Titans but were clamped down on by the 49ers. The Texans are a much harder matchup to solve on defense than Tennessee, so expect Lawrence to see more pressure. Stroud has his entire team behind him and it’s showing anytime the Texans have been down. They may not lead the entire game, but this is another home upset at Houston.
5. New England Patriots (-160) at New York Giants***
What makes this matchup interesting isn’t so much the talent on the field, rather how both teams got to this collective mess. The Giants come off their biggest win of the year after demolishing the Commanders. It completed the season sweep of Washington so there is an expected letdown ahead of this week.
The problem in fading New York, down to their third string quarterback, is the Patriots are here because of their own doing. Mac Jones hasn’t been named the starter as of yet, and as horrible as he’s been, there’s no guarantee anyone else is even as good. The situation in New England is an absolute disaster and they may fire their coach at season’s end. The Giants are certainly a disappointment, but a lot can be pinned on injury – not that a healthy Daniel Jones is heading to the Super Bowl.
4. Dallas Cowboys (-550) vs. Washington Commanders
Dallas is due for another letdown, and it should have happened last week save for how bad things are with the Panthers. That changes this week against a far more competent quarterback in Sam Howell. The Cowboys host the next two weeks on Thursday, so there’s no short week turnaround after this week, they are also looking ahead to what may be wild card competition in Seattle.
The Cowboys just bullied the Panthers – which is basically the norm – but would have been a sweat if not for Bryce Young. Howell can keep this offense pumping but ultimately not having the presence anymore with their defensive front is why Washington will lose.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (-114) at Cincinnati Bengals***
If the Steelers have basic competence at quarterback, then they would be in the driver’s seat for the AFC North. Instead, Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh’s offense are being out-gained in every game this year, despite the Steelers winning games. It’s just not a sustainable strategy and is going to catch up against the Bengals.
Cincy’s prime issue on defense is containing opponents through the air, the Steelers have some big plays in them but nothing that would tilt massive odds in their favor. The Bengals have a full week to prepare with a backup quarterback which means a game plan not asking Jake Browning to take over the world.
Much like Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked improved following actual practice, Browning won’t look nearly as awful either. This is a massive letdown spot for the Steelers who enter this road game overlooking their opponent, mainly because there’s no Joe Burrow on the other side.
2. Atlanta Falcons (-108) vs. New Orleans Saints
These last two games are essentially down to pick’ems and it’s best to just favor the home teams. The good news about confidence pools is hitting any higher plays, like the Ravens or the Seahawks outright enables these games relatively meaningless. Now, two points might be the difference in gaining ground, down to a payout versus going home empty handed.
The Falcons have the ability to puncture the Saints defense on the ground, even if that’s escaping with field goals. New Orleans may have Derek Carr, they may not due to a concussion. Either way it doesn’t matter who starts for the Saints as they have just as strong a chance to win. Nobody seems to want to win this division, but expect Atlanta through special teams to take one step closer.
1. Arizona Cardinals (-105) vs. Los Angeles Rams***
Another game that comes down to a coin flip. Los Angeles comes off a huge win after surviving a missed 55-yard Seattle field goal. It came down to that but it’s enough to reshape this team’s confidence against a miserable Arizona team.
All the hype surrounding the Cardinals seeing Kyler Murray return and they dropped their ninth game of the year. Los Angeles has struggled even with a healthy Matthew Stafford but seems to have a small advantage in stability.
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