The NFL season rolls on with an action-packed card on Sunday. While four Week 12 games are already in the books, we still have several exciting games left to watch. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois and Justin Martin have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 12, including DeVonta Smith, for Bills-Eagles, Panthers-Titans and more.
NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bets: Picks for DeVonta Smith, Will Levis & More
Panthers-Titans NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 12
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 26 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.
Who: Will Levis at bet365
How quickly we forget. When Will Levis made his first-career NFL start — his only start to date in Nissan Stadium — the Tennessee Titans stomped the Atlanta Falcons, largely thanks to Levis’ arm. The rookie quarterback threw four touchdown passes in his debut. But because he has thrown just two since, he sits at odds of +215 to go for two-plus passing touchdowns on Sunday.
The Titans will line up against the Carolina Panthers in what the books expect to be a win for the home team, as Levis’ bunch are 3.5-point favorites. The Panthers have fared much worse against the run than the pass this season, as they have coughed up 13 passing touchdowns to 16 rushing touchdowns, but that isn’t deterring me in this spot because Carolina is also expected to be without two starting cornerbacks, CJ Henderson and Jaycee Horn, both of whom are doubtful.
Levis won’t have wide receiver Treylon Burks in this spot, but he will have DeAndre Hopkins and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who have accounted for seven of Tennessee’s nine total passing touchdowns this year. With Carolina expected to let Tennessee win this one, I’m confused about why Levis’ odds of scoring two-plus passing touchdowns are so long, especially with how inefficient Derrick Henry has been this season.
Best NFL Week 12 Player Prop Pick: Will Levis Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +210 at bet365
Buccaneers-Colts NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 12
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 26 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Who: Michael Pittman Jr. at ESPN Bet
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s model for an NFL player prop pick with which I strongly agree. The Indianapolis Colts will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their pass-funnel defense on Sunday, and that should mean more opportunities in the passing game for guys like Michael Pittman Jr. The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most total receiving yards to wide receivers this season (1,996), albeit on only the 14th-most total receptions (136), but there is value here regardless.
Pittman’s receptions prop sits at 5.5 on ESPN Bet and is priced at a too-low -140. Pittman has caught six-plus passes in each of his last three starts and in four of his last five. But OddsShopper’s model doesn’t care about stats — it cares about odds, and the reason this wager has so much value is because Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -188 for the over. The model uses the price at Pinnacle and other sharp books to generate “true odds,” or a fair market price for any wager, and that number sits at -157 for this one. If you’re interested in more picks from OddsShopper’s model, subscribe now for 50% off by using the code “BLACKFRIDAY”.
Best NFL Week 12 Player Prop Pick: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 5.5 Receptions -140 at ESPN Bet
Jaguars-Texans NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 12
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 26 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
Who: Will Anderson Jr. at DraftKings
The Houston Texans may have aced the 2023 NFL Draft. Rookies C.J. Stroud and Nathaniel Dell look like stars on the offensive side of the ball. That said, let’s not forget about pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. The former Alabama star has been a menace in the trenches this year. He ranks fourth among all edge rushers in pass-rush win rate at 26% despite a 22% double-team rate. While that has only corresponded to three total sacks this year, Anderson has generated 18 pressures, which ranks tied for 31st. Only five of the 57 players with at least 15 pressures have fewer sacks than Anderson.
Anderson draws a beautiful matchup with the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville’s offensive line is terrible — the Jaguars rank 29th in pass-block win rate and 28th in run-block win rate. While quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a difficult man to sack, his luck may run out against a tough Houston defensive line, especially with Jacksonville on the road. Lawrence is averaging only 2.5 sacks taken per game both overall and on the road this year, but, throughout his career, he has averaged 0.8 additional sacks taken per game on the road.
Look for Anderson to make a lot of noise in the backfield come Sunday. He has generated far too much pressure to have only three sacks to this point, and we can buy him at odds of +165 at DraftKings to record just a half-sack. Although Anderson has recorded a sack in only three of his 10 games this year (30%), which is worse than the implied odds of 37.7%, I have faith that he’ll deliver with the AFC South lead on the line.
Best NFL Week 12 Player Prop Pick: Will Anderson Jr. Over 0.25 Sacks +165 at DraftKings
Rams-Cardinals NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 12
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 26 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ari.
Who: James Conner at BetRivers
The return of Kyler Murray has been a breath of fresh air for not only Cardinals fans but running back James Conner. The tandem returns to action after a solid 2022 campaign in which Conner averaged 4.3 yards per carry and found the end zone eight times. On Sunday, they’ll host the division rival Los Angeles Rams as 2.5-point home underdogs — a potential positive game script for Conner in the run game, where we’re targeting him.
James Conner has complete control of this backfield. The only threat we have to worry about is Murray running himself. Fresh off a torn ACL injury, Murray is still running and gunning. He had seven rush attempts last week in a loss to the Houston Texans, while Conner had 14 carries for 62 yards. Here we are in Week 12, where I expect the Cardinals to control this game with their new-look offense.
From a run defense perspective, the Rams are as sluggish as you could imagine for a 4-6 football team. They allow the 12th-most rushing yards to opposing running backs and the sixth-most on average since Week 9. We love those numbers. Conner, now that he is back and healthy, is a real threat with Murray handing the ball off — especially in the RPO game. Conner has run for 135 yards on 30 carries in the two games that Murray has played. Those came against the likes of the Falcons and Texans, who are both much better statistically than the Rams in the run game defensively.
Thanks to OddsShopper’s tools, they found a line on BetRivers that is much better than those of the major competitors. You can find Conner at -112 to go over 64.5 rushing yards on BetRivers while the rest of the books have set the line three yards higher.
Best NFL Week 12 Player Prop Pick: James Conner Over 64.5 Rushing Yards -112 at BetRivers
Bills-Eagles NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 12
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 26 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Who: DeVonta Smith at bet365
The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Buffalo Bills this week as both teams continue their gauntlet of stretch runs. The Eagles just played the Kansas City Chiefs last week and will play the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys next. The Bills will visit the Chiefs next week before hosting the Cowboys. The tough matchups don’t affect my read of the markets too much, but the fact this should be a close game means we can expect plenty of production out of both passing offenses.
We’re looking at DeVonta Smith in this spot because of the injuries in Buffalo’s secondary. The Bills just lost a pair of defensive backs, cornerback Dane Jackson and safety Taylor Rapp, who will now join Tre’Davious White and Kaiir Elam on Buffalo’s lengthy injury report. While Rasul Douglas has been a pleasant surprise at cornerback, the Bills have usually used him against big-bodied boundary receivers, which means we can pencil him in against A.J. Brown, leaving slot cornerback Taron Johnson or 2022 sixth-rounder Christian Benford to work on Smith.
Philadelphia’s own injuries point to value here as well. With tight end Dallas Goedert down, Smith has seen a meaningful uptick in volume. The wideout notched eight targets last week, his most since Week 6, and caught six of them for 99 yards. Importantly, Smith’s targets came far downfield — he tallied 96 air yards as well. You’ll find Smith’s receiving yards prop set to only 56.5 this week, which is more in line with his production before Goedert’s injury, with the over priced at only -115 on bet365.
Best NFL Week 12 Player Prop Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 56.5 Receiving Yards -115 at bet365
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