Nothing lasts forever, even the Joshua Dobbs train. The NFL upset was close but no cigar as Denver pulled out an improbable victory. This time they sit as home favorites on Monday night so the focus shifts to a new team. Most of the games feature tight lines with some heavy favorites mixed in, so the edge may not be as apparent. Just having plus money associated with shorter dogs this week seems like a bonus, but there’s one home dog that stands out the most.
NFL Week 12 Upset & Underdog Pick
NFL Odds for Jaguars-Texans Pick
Jaguars-Texans Upset Pick
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CJ Stroud continues to amaze each week as Houston comes off another victory – their third in a row. Stroud not only has this team believing every week, but also playing well on the field. There’s just a game between the two teams in the standings but a win over Jacksonville completes the season sweep for Houston. This Texans team is almost too young to get caught between the drama or suffer any letdown. That might not be the case so much for Jacksonville.
Clearly the Jags had no problem bouncing back last week with an impressive win against the Titans but that comes off a demoralization at the hands of the Niners. Hard to think the Jags fixed anything as they simply went up against a far weaker opponent – albeit taking full advantage of their opponent. The biggest factor in this game is what Jacksonville can do to slow down Stroud versus the game plan Houston has against Trevor Lawrence. Both are dynamic, but only one has been more consistent as the lightning rod to victory.
The run defenses for both teams are what separates them from most of the league. Jacksonville is fourth best against the run; Houston sits at eighth. The Jags have been a little up and down throwing the football but that’s where separation starts to build on Houston’s side.
Stroud is currently leading the 2nd best passing attack – 2nd in passing yards per game – around the NFL. Doug Pederson can draw up as many plays as possible to help Lawrence succeed, but Houston has the better QB – forcing a game of catch-up by the Jags. This won’t be “Niners ugly” but there’s not going to be much in line with the Jags defense shutting down Houston’s pass offense. While the Jags certainly throw, it’s nothing like the yardage amassed by the Texans.
Houston barely runs with much success so expect this offense to be creative in finding some different ways to create spacing for Stroud. Jacksonville has a big game the following week despite not facing Joe Burrow for the Bengals. It’s a prime time game on Monday night against the Bengals, which is tough to not factor – even in a divisional matchup like this one.
Looking at how this game should play out it’s most likely the Texans win in a mild shootout. Jacksonville gets a boost with Zay Flowers but it’s just not going to be enough to keep up with Stroud. We are way past waiting for the other foot to drop with the Texans, this is a solid team that throws a ton and stops the run. They are the wrong team getting any points, especially at home.
It’s tough to beat the same team twice in a season but it’s also tough to deny the magic Stroud keeps riding. The AFC South may currently ride through Jacksonville but that changes on Sunday.
NFL Week 12 Upset Pick: Texans +105 (BetMGM)
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