The NFL rolls on with a jam-packed Week 13 slate that features several interesting matchups, especially 49ers-Eagles. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois, Nathan Joyce and Justin Martin have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 13, including C.J. Stroud, for Broncos-Texans, 49ers-Eagles, Chargers-Patriots and more.
NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets: Picks for C.J. Stroud, Christian McCaffrey & More
Broncos-Texans NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 13
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
Who: C.J. Stroud at BetMGM
Let’s kick things off with one play we like that OddsShopper’s model loves. The Houston Texans struck gold with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud in this year’s draft, but they’re still building out the rest of their roster, and they are just a field-goal favorite over the visiting Denver Broncos this weekend. Denver should keep this one close, which means plenty of passing attempts for Stroud.
The model generates the true odds of a given wager by indexing the odds across the market and adjusting for both book sharpness and hold. Once we have the true odds, we can compare them to the odds available across the market. In this case, BetMGM is selling a wager with true odds of -124 (55.4%) for only -110 (52.4%). The model is telling us that there is enough edge for a better with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $46. You can get every pick from OddsShopper’s model by subscribing for $49.95 per month — make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” for 20% off at checkout!
Best NFL Week 13 Player Prop Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 33.5 Passing Attempts -110 at BetMGM
Colts-Titans NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 13
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.
Who: Derrick Henry at FanDuel
Sunday’s Colts-Titans game features two teams going in opposite directions as franchises. The Titans are a mess with question marks at nearly every position. They’ve bought in the successor to Derrick Henry, Tyjae Spears, who continues to eat up Henry’s workload. On the other side, the Colts have a nice core on offense with Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman Jr. Unfortunately for them, the first two names mentioned won’t be suiting up on Sunday. That’s a great sign for us as Derrick Henry bettors.
Let’s break down this Colts-Titans NFL player prop pick. I’ve had my experiences betting on Henry in the passing game. It hasn’t worked out. On Sunday, I’m backing Henry in the run game, where he is a monster when getting the proper touches. Henry found the end zone twice last week against the woeful Carolina Panthers and rushed for 76 yards — 37 of those yards coming in the fourth quarter. The Titans found themselves in a positive game script and rode Henry till the end. I’m expecting much of the same this week.
The Colts’ offense, led by quarterback Gardner Minshew and running back Zack Moss, is one that defenses won’t take lightly — but the books have. Their team total is set at 21.5 with vig on the under. They come in as slight favorites on the road, but as long as this game stays within one possession, Henry should be in line for 15-plus carries – unlike his 13 carries against the Colts earlier this season.
The Colts are coming off allowing Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White to eclipse 100 yards on the ground. The week before their bye, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson ran wild for 88 yards in Frankfurt. With quarterback Will Levis still getting acclimated to the offense, expect a heavy dose of Henry on the ground and to cash this player prop bet for the eighth time this season.
Best NFL Week 13 Player Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Over 60.5 Rushing Yards -114 at FanDuel
Chargers-Patriots NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 13
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Who: Bailey Zappe at FanDuel
The New England Patriots will turn to backup quarterback Bailey Zappe against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, and while I’m usually out on betting overs for players who could get benched, it sounds like the Patriots will leave Mac Jones inactive and have Malik Cunningham as the backup. That means even if Zappe struggles early, the Patriots are unlikely to pivot away from him as a passer.
Zappe has made most of his appearances in relief of Jones, but in a two-start sample last year, he averaged 248.5 passing yards per game with totals of 188 yards against Detroit and 309 yards against Cleveland. Zappe is averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt for his career. That’s down to 4.1 yards per pass attempt this year, which is atrocious, but I’m interested in seeing what he can do as the designated starter.
The matchup is the main reason we’re backing Zappe. The Chargers’ passing defense has been terrible all season. They have coughed up the most passing yards to quarterbacks (3,340), good for 303.6 per game and 7.9 per attempt. With the Patriots ranked 10th in passing play percentage this year (59.7%) and listed as a 5.5-point underdog, ladder Zappe up to 200-plus passing yards.
Best NFL Week 13 Player Prop Pick: Bailey Zappe Over 177.5 Passing Yards -114
Falcons-Jets NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 13
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Who: Desmond Ridder at FanDuel
The Atlanta Falcons will visit the New York Jets with quarterback Desmond Ridder at the helm, and even though the Jets are coming off a dispiriting loss to the Miami Dolphins, I’m fading Ridder anyway. The struggling second-year quarterback has thrown a whopping 17 interceptable passes, sixth-most in the NFL, despite starting only nine games. Of those 17 interceptable passes, only eight were actually picked off.
The Jets aren’t a defense to throw interceptable passes against. New York’s defense is tied for fifth in total interceptions (12) and fourth in interceptions per game (1.1). Even on New York’s current four-game losing skid, opposing quarterbacks have thrown four total interceptions, with Tua Tagovailoa tossing two and Aidan O’Connell and Josh Allen tossing one. With New York’s defense unable to put much on the scoreboard, the defense has done its best to step up.
We’re getting Ridder to throw a pick at odds of -132 (56.9%) at FanDuel, which is a far better price than the -145 (59.2%) at DraftKings and the -150 (60%) at bet365. Lock this NFL player prop pick in before the value disappears.
Best NFL Week 13 Player Prop Pick: Desmond Ridder Over 0.5 Interceptions -132 at FanDuel
Dolphins-Commanders NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 13
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Md.
Who: Jaylen Waddle at FanDuel
It was great to see Jaylen Waddle get back into the mix in a big way against the lowly Jets in Week 12. It instills more confidence in this pick for me knowing Tua & Co. were making a concerted effort to get our boy the ball.
This week, the Dolphins take on the Commanders, and the sportsbooks have set the reception line for Waddle at 4.5, which just feels too low.
Look, I know that he hadn’t gone over four receptions in a game since late October before he did it last week. I get that. But there are two factors at play here.
The first; Tyreek Hill is listed as questionable for this game and might be dealing with a bit of an injury issue. So, if he’s limited in any capacity, more targets could be funneled Waddle’s way.
The second: Where do you think most of the coverage and defensive energy will be concentrated? Tyreek. Let’s be real, it would matter if the Commanders put all of their energy into stopping anyone on defense, they still wouldn’t be able to do it.
OddsShopper’s model likes Waddle to hit the over of 4.5 here almost 56% of the time, so I think we can fire this baby up for -138 at FanDuel.
Best NFL Week 13 Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 Receptions -138 at FanDuel
Panthers-Buccaneers NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 13
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
Who: Bryce Young at FanDuel
Carolina Panthers fans, I’m sorry. It has to be tough seeing your franchise quarterback struggle through his first season in the league while the number two overall pick is putting together a historic season. But I have good news: I’m backing Bryce Young in a smash spot against the division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers — the first time Young will face off against them in his career. The top player prop bet in Panthers-Buccaneers that I’m betting is Bryce Young over 198.5 passing yards, so let’s dive into why.
Good luck beating the Buccaneers’ defense with the run game — especially when your two-headed monster is Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. The Buccaneers allow the ninth fewest rushing yards per game but have been exposed to quarterbacks through the air. They’ve allowed nine of the 11 quarterbacks to go over their passing line this season.
Plug in Bryce Young this week. He is coming off his best game in terms of quarterback rating since late October but failed to record 200 passing yards due to Sanders and Hubbard combining for 29 rush attempts. News flash: I don’t see them getting that same usage this week. Look for Young and the Panthers to be in a pass-heavy game script as 5.5-point underdogs on the road to a Buccaneers squad allowing the second most passing yards per game.
Be sure to shop for the best price around using OddsShopper’s tools. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best number at 198.5, while the rest of the market is set a yard higher.
Best NFL Week 13 Player Prop Pick: Bryce Young Over 198.5 Passing Yards -114 at FanDuel
49ers-Eagles NFL Player Prop Bet | Week 13
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Dec 3 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Who: Christian McCaffrey at BetMGM
Where do we begin when we start talking about the best running back in football? Well, let’s start with the fact that he will absolutely nuke this 31.5 receiving yards number against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13.
If you’re a game log watcher, you’re going to hate this play since McCaffrey failed to hit the over on this number in his last two games. But those games were drastically different than this one will be — the Niners were son-ing the Seahawks and Buccaneers in those previous two games, and they weren’t going to pile on CMC’s workload.
This game? This will be different. In this matchup, they’re likely to lean on him heavily, especially now that we’ve seen the Eagles linebackers can be exploited, and they’ll be missing a couple of defensive starters as well.
The Eagles give up over five receptions and 32 yards per game to opposing running backs — and they haven’t even seen the best one in the NFL yet. As the kids say, CMC is #BuiltDifferent.
Kyle Shanahan will be scheming McCaffrey open for easy passes for Brock Purdy, and we know he has game-breaking ability and could clear this number on one catch alone. Why this number is only 31.5? I have no idea. But, I’m HAMMERING this on BetMGM as fast as possible.
Best NFL Week 13 Player Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 31.5 Receiving Yards for -120 at BetMGM
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Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 13 now!
