The NFL season is winding down as is your pool. Plenty of time still to make a move, even if you are trailing rather significantly. There are some strategies involved with late season picks, specifically where to place upsets and dropping low confidence favorites. We try and apply that here, especially with our highest rated upset of the week. Here are our NFL Week 14 Confidence Pool Picks!
NFL Week 14 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 14 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
15 Pittsburgh Steelers (-250) vs. New England Patriots
It’s just hard to see anyone losing to the Patriots, even Mitchell Tribisky. Crazy to say it but right now the better coach is on the Steelers sideline, as both defenses are good enough to keep this a single digit game. The QB change in Pittsburgh isn’t as drastic as made out, and it’s still an abomination over in New England.
The Pats are handcuffed to bad QB play until next season and will continue to spiral. People will stay away or drop this game because of the QB news in Pittsburgh, but they must be ignoring that same position in Foxborough. Slam the Steelers.
14 Miami Dolphins (-800) vs Tennessee Titans
This is a brutal matchup for the Titans as evident by the heavily favored Dolphins sitting at -800. Tyreek Hill continues to make his case for an MVP bid while the offense can float the ball against this ailing Titans defense.
Miami is looking for their fourth straight win – sixth straight at home – against a Titans team that has yet to find victory away from Nashville. While it’s not a concussion, Derrick Henry is dealing with a head injury, to make matters worse for the Titans.
13 Baltimore Ravens (-310) vs Los Angeles Rams
The Ravens are 9-3 and winners of two straight with one of the best players in the NFL playing like it. It’s not just Lamar Jackson carrying this team as Baltimore is suffocating opposing offenses – at least in preventing points.
No team in the NFL has allowed fewer total points (187) than the Ravens this year, so don’t expect a rather middle of the road offense like the Rams to do anything. LA has caught recent fire winning three straight games, but winning a cross country trip to Baltimore against a Ravens team that’s 5-1 at home isn’t in the cards.
12 Green Bay Packers (-286) vs New York Giants
This is the team nobody wants to face heading into the Wild Card. No, it’s not the Giants. The Packers found Love and it’s working out fantastic. Their signal caller has recently blossomed over a three-game win streak, including wins over the Lions and Chiefs.
What exactly is a low scoring crop of losers like the Giants going to do against a red-hot Packers team? Nothing on offense, we at least know that. The Giants might be able to stay in this game on defense but even covering a three-point spread seems like a rather big ask, especially down to their third QB.
11 Kansas City Chiefs (-138) vs. Buffalo Bills
The line in KC is short, much like the patience of their fans. While the offense simply isn’t what it used to be, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes. Just looking at the QB matchup, both Mahomes and Josh Allen are more than capable of taking over a game. The problem is reaching the finish line.
This game could easily come down to which QB makes a mistake, despite both going over 300 yards with multiple scores. The Bills lose in every scenario, close call where Mahomes wins or Allen loses, and any blowout spot on the road. The Bills could have taken a month off and still wouldn’t be more talented than the Chiefs.
10 New Orleans Saints (-230) vs. Carolina Panthers***
There are major QB issues swirling throughout this football game. The Saints are moving from one volatile passer to another. Be it Derek Carr or Jameis Winston, a turnover is coming. New Orleans can’t get out of its own way no matter how well Alvin Kamara plays, and they still had a shot to beat Detroit.
The problem is the Panthers are actually a decent team outside of Bryce Young. The one issue they continue to face is lack of accurate QB play and no WR to make life any easier. No team is going to win just peppering Adam Thielen. With that said, the Panthers stop the run and can effectively pound the ball on the ground. They will gladly play down to a snail’s pace asking the run game to overcompensate. The Panthers are better coached too, which puts them over the top.
9 Houston Texans (-240) at New York Jets
The Texans are the best story in the NFL this year and it’s all about CJ Stroud. Houston got a necessary bounce back win last week against the Broncos, validating their spot as a playoff contender, or at least a contender to make the playoffs. They sit in one of the tougher divisions and can’t let up, even against the second coming of Zach Wilson. This guy, again?
It’s rather obvious to anyone watching Jets games – they seemed to find their way on prime time during Wilson’s reign of terror – teammates don’t enjoy the offense under Wilson. Nobody does. The Texans can’t wait to get to work with their QB while the Jets are dreading another game with their guy. The only reason why this game is dropped is due to the Jets defense and run game, both good enough to keep them in this at home.
8 Atlanta Falcons (-134) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers***
This is a division matchup for Tampa so take out any true home field advantage in Atlanta. This is a better matchup for Tampa despite massive injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta can’t do much on offense outside of run the ball, and that’s where the Bucs have found some success on defense.
They are good enough to push the Falcons to score and keep up in a game with more points. Atlanta’s pass defense is improved, but they struggle against the run. Using Rachad White in key spots should take off some pressure on Baker Mayfield.
7 San Francisco 49ers (-550) vs. Seattle Seahawks
This game drops for two big reasons; the first a possible letdown from last week, the second being a matchup against a familiar foe. The Niners put everything into that win against the Eagles despite it looking rather easy at times. Six straight drives with scores isn’t going to happen every week, at least not this week against Seattle.
It’s only natural the Niners would experience a little letdown following such an emotional win full of revenge and payback. The Seahawks just don’t have it. The injuries have caught up to them and they’ve dropped three straight games. If they can get healthy, specifically at the RB position, this might be more of a game than people give credit. Pete Carroll knows all about Kyle Shanahan’s tricks of the trade, so no surprises for Seattle.
6 Cleveland Browns (-155) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars***
It doesn’t look like Trevor Lawrence is coming back anytime soon so it’s backup time. It’s been backup time for a bit in Cleveland. Speaking of which, Joe Flacco was moved back to the practice squad, clearing the way for PJ Walker. Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains in concussion protocol. A team like Jacksonville should bounce back after losing their leader.
There’s extra motivation now for everyone around the QB – presumably CJ Beathard – especially the offensive line. Jacksonville still has three solid targets and a workhorse back; their defense should play much better against whatever Cleveland throws out on Sunday. The Browns defense is no joke at home, but it’s getting to the point where they simply can’t outplay their quarterbacks.
5 Los Angeles Chargers (-148) vs. Denver Broncos***
The Broncos are just the better team. The Chargers mustered six points against a lifeless Patriots team with a shutout being the biggest misnomer of it all. LA’s defense has done ok against the run, 17th overall in rushing yards against, but they are abysmal against the pass. That’s just about the level of defense the Broncos need to take advantage, but Russell Wilson is still good enough to push the ball down field.
LA is laying three points at home because they can score a ton of points, but they also give up way too much. Their stats are a little off because they took on a D3 level Patriots team, outside of that, they are a major liability on defense. Denver still has playoff aspirations on the mind and will take this Chargers team seriously. Take Denver with the upset.
4 Detroit Lions (-168) at Chicago Bears
This game has the feeling of ending either in upset or a massive bloodbath at the hands of Detroit. The Lions are 9-3 but that Thanksgiving loss at home has people concerned they could be regular season paper champions. They face a Bears team that already gave them fits the first time around and is healthier with Justin Fields back.
The Bears return from the bye week winners of two of their last three, losing to the Lions by five in Detroit. Chicago is dangerous and desperate which is a terrible combo to face in December. Detroit should win but we limit damage in the event of an upset.
3 Indianapolis Colts (-112) at Cincinnati Bengals***
Cincinnati shocked the world with an OT FG to knock off the Lawrence-less Jaguars. Jake Browning played out of his mind but was smart with the football. That type of success is tough to duplicate each week, but Cincy is coached well enough on offense and has enough playmakers to help Browning.
Expecting another smash performance in the air might not be a reasonable ask, look no further than Joe Mixon. The Colts biggest issue is stopping the run. That’s just fine for Cincy who should enter this game with a sounder gameplan of pounding Mixon for an early lead. He’s even got some help as rookie Chase Brown saw major action on Sunday night.
2 Minnesota Vikings (-152) at Las Vegas Raiders
This is the end of the line for the Raiders even though the story was fun while it lasted. On the verge of losing three straight, the immediate boost of having a new coach and QB seems to have vanished. They face a Vikings team that gets healthier – Justin Jefferson is expected to return – but are still uncertain with Josh Dobbs.
Even if Minny goes to Nick Mullens, their game plan will reflect a more conservative approach. Minnesota has the better defense right now and the better playmaker in Jefferson over Davante Adams.
1 Dallas Cowboys (-174) vs Philadelphia Eagles
It’s hard to pick against Dallas but they have found ways against Philadelphia. During the height of Philadelphia’s absurd run earlier this season, they held off the Cowboys after multiple bad breaks for Dallas. The Eagles just suffered a humiliating loss at home to the Niners so they should play better this week against a division opponent.
The problem is just how bad they are against the pass, something Dallas does exceptionally well. This game has playmakers from Prescott to Jalen Hurts and a looming battle between the trenches. There’s no home field advantage here, much like there wasn’t in Philadelphia. It’s as close to a pick em this week as it comes.
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