Here we go! Gaining some spots in your weekly confidence pool takes risk but also a good read of the room. Look at some of the heavier played sides that hurt people — like our Vegas fade last week that went horribly wrong — and try to identify those for Week 16. Don’t go crazy — never go too crazy — as the Raiders aren’t beating the Chiefs this week. The biggest thing to remember is the balance between risk and something actually happening. That’s where we begin for our week 16 NFL Confidence picks!
NFL Week 16 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 16 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with **
16. Kansas City Chiefs (-480) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The only injury that could possibly sway this game over to the Raiders would be if Patrick Mahomes were to miss. That’s not the case, and the Raiders are in trouble. With all the concerns surrounding the Kansas City offense, the team is still 9-5 with a two-game lead over the Broncos. Kansas City gets the benefit of the doubt here against a Vegas team coming off an improbable — and impossible to duplicate — win. Kansas City is 7-2 inside the AFC West and will add another notch to its belt.
15. Green Bay Packers (-225) at Carolina Panthers
It doesn’t get much worse in professional sports than what the Panthers are going through this year. They have the worst record in the league and have been banished from the playoffs. They traded away multiple draft picks — including the top overall pick this coming year — for a kid who simply can’t play in Bryce Young. They also fired their head coach a few weeks ago. A total disaster. People can bark all they want about how good Carolina’s defense can be or that the Panthers run the ball well, but the Packers are running out of time. If they want to snap a two-game skid and make the playoffs, it starts with a beating of the Panthers.
14. Denver Broncos (-285) vs. New England Patriots
Sure, there’s a possible reality where the New England Patriots hit the road and stun a heavily favored Broncos team in Denver. It’s just not the one that will play out this weekend. Denver comes off a rare loss, just its second one over the past eight weeks. The problem is it’s the Broncos’ second loss over the past three games. This is a great spot for the Broncos to reclaim an above-.500 record and continue to push for a playoff spot. It’s a primetime game on Christmas Eve, so don’t expect any letdown by Denver.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (-134) at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is an unfortunate fade of the Pittsburgh Steelers based solely on their offensive woes and change at the quarterback position. Either Kenny Pickett is racing back to play with an ankle injury, or the Steelers will start Mason Rudolph — their third-string quarterback. The Bengals are riding a three-game winning streak but may be without Ja’Marr Chase due to a shoulder injury. Jake Browning is showing no signs of slowing down and will be fine even without Chase on the field. Cincinnati knows all too well how good the Steelers are with a healthy T.J. Watt, so expect a game plan to counter Pittsburgh’s defensive pressure.
OddsShopper’s betting model found even more value on the Bengals when targeting their moneyline! The -120 moneyline odds at FanDuel is the only place to get a +EV wager on Cincinnati, as OddsShopper has these True Odds at -120 as well — every other book is at -126 or worse. Want more NFL picks like this? You can get all the best bets of the Week 16 NFL slate when you subscribe to OddsShopper Premium!
12. Los Angeles Rams (-190) vs. New Orleans Saints
This is a fairly decent spot for the Rams despite being on a short week. They host a Saints team that is coming off a desperate win against the surprising Giants. After losing three in a row, New Orleans comfortably beat down the Panthers then the Giants — not anything truly inspiring. The quarterback position is a walking turnstile of turnovers no matter who is playing; every week it seems Derek Carr is playing through something. This is probably best to bet as a cover spot for the Saints but hard to think they can turn around on a short week and actually beat a good team. The Rams may have the same 7-7 record as New Orleans, but this game will prove the wider gap in talent.
11. Buffalo Bills (-700) at Los Angeles Chargers
It would be easier to put this game higher on the confidence list if the Bills weren’t so self-destructive. They are playing significantly better and are in the hunt for the wild card. Los Angeles is down bad but in a unique spot of playing right after firing a coach. Normally these are smash spots for the underdogs, but Easton Stick is not good enough to overcome the Bills momentum right now. Buffalo saw some guys return to practice despite being limited and could be healthier on defense. It’s a tough recipe for any team to overcome with a backup like Stick, even with a new coach on the sidelines.
10. New York Jets (-165) vs. Washington Commanders**
Bump up the first upset of the week to the 10 spot, as Washington will knock off the Jets. New York has been surrounded by controversy from active to injured players — coach firings, Aaron Rodgers, reports of backups not wanting to play. It’s a mess under Robert Saleh as New York continues to crumble. It’s been a mess for the Commanders most of the year. The biggest issue for Washington seems to be playing in the NFC. It is winless in their division and 2-8 overall in the conference. Playing the AFC is a little better, as the Commanders are 2-2. They get the win this weekend.
9. Cleveland Browns (-139) at Houston Texans**
Joe Flacco is comfortably nuzzled in as the Browns starting quarterback after the Browns won their second straight game. But one thing that hasn’t changed despite the movement at quarterback is how different the Browns are away from Cleveland. They struggle on defense and haven’t been able to close gaps on the road — they sit 2-4 compared to 7-1 at home. It’s a split worth exploiting, especially because of how much worse their defense plays on the road. There’s a decent chance C.J. Stroud will miss this game due to his concussion, but that’s not enough to fade the Texans. Case Keenum is an experienced thrower in the NFL, and Houston is still fighting for the AFC South.
8. Seattle Seahawks (-140) at Tennessee Titans
The Seahawks edged the Eagles for a massive Monday night victory. The Titans might be cornered into deciding either Malik Willis or Ryan Tannehill — in for an injured Will Levis. The situation with Levis’ ankle is bad enough to warrant massive concern the team will move to either backup. Either guy gives the Titans even less of a chance of winning. Seattle will not let down against the Titans this week because they simply aren’t good enough. The Seahawks snapped a four-game slide by beating the dysfunctional Eagles. This is a bad Titans team, way worse than anything going on with Seattle. If Geno Smith plays, this is a smash for the Seahawks.
7. Detroit Lions (-165) at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions currently hold three games on the Vikings despite this being the first of two matchups between them. After losing two of three, the Lions returned with an emphatic thumping of the Broncos last week, returning hope they can live up to the hype of their record. The Vikings are a strange bird this year, doing the majority of damage on the road and struggling at home. At 2-4 in the dome, this is cause for concern against a Detroit team good enough to beat anyone in the NFL. When the Lions are off, it’s a massive drop, but it looks like Detroit worked through a bunch of issues last weekend while hammering the Broncos. Minnesota will drop to 7-8 but should make it close on defense.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-108) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars**
Two things need to duplicate from last week in order for the Buccaneers to beat the Jaguars. The first is Baker Mayfield needing to be perfect — or near perfect — like he was on the road against the Packers. The Bucs offense is good — certainly not their main issue this year — but it’s a big ask against any two NFL teams in back-to-back weeks. The second thing is the Jaguars will have to make some more ridiculous decisions, both coaching and execution. They missed a couple of field goals, misused the clock and had some awful plays dialed up — on top of the turnover issue. Any positive regression for the Jaguars means a win here, even with Trevor Lawrence in concussion protocol. If he somehow misses this game, still take Jacksonville but drop them to 3 or 4 on your list.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (-670) vs. New York Giants
There is absolutely zero reason the Philadelphia Eagles should be this low on the list, doubled down when you see their pitiful opponent. But the Eagles have found ways to implode all year, recently feeling the brunt of those mistakes. It should come as little surprise if the Giants did find a way to add a fourth straight loss to the Eagles’ plate, but to credit the Birds, Philadelphia has found ways to beat bad teams. Jalen Hurts will be healthier, and the offense should destroy New York in the run game.
4. Chicago Bears (-205) vs. Arizona Cardinals
This is a tough one only because of how well Arizona played last week, even though the scoreboard said domination by San Francisco. The reality is Arizona outgained the 49ers and was able to move the ball effortlessly on the ground. That’s an area of attack against the Bears that will be exploitable. This is going to be a higher-scoring game with two mobile quarterbacks who can manufacture chunk plays on their own. Chicago has a better chance of slowing down Arizona’s pass game, as the Bears should start throwing right from the start.
3. Atlanta Falcons (-115) vs. Indianapolis Colts**
Desmond Ridder is out, which makes it harder to fade the Falcons, but Taylor Heinicke hasn’t won this year. The Falcons are barely surviving in the NFL’s worst division and constantly need things around them to work out. The Colts don’t hold many teams to a low point total, but they are scoring a lot. They should be without Michael Pittman Jr. this week and at least one of their two backs in Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. Even down all three, it’s not enough to cause enough concern as to fade Indianapolis. The Colts defense should be aggressive enough to force Heinicke to throw on the run.
2. Miami Dolphins (-120) vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is one of the last two games that are too tight to risk anything more than low point totals. Feel free to mix and match, drop this game to 1 and bring up the 49ers to 2, it won’t matter. Dallas is due for a bounce back; it played horribly against Buffalo and is a much better team overall. It also smells out loud on the road, and there’s not much to give hope against a Dolphins team begging to break back out on offense. This is a decent matchup for both sides on defense with no discernable advantage to exploit. It is best to leave this one at the bottom.
1. San Francisco 49ers (-225) vs. Baltimore Ravens
This will be the most anticipated and overhyped game of the week. Part of me thinks this thing will end 13-10 with defense playing a major role. One issue is Baltimore playing on the road with some injuries, but it is 6-1 away from home — a better road record overall. The 49ers are toying with teams right now and have three legit MVP candidates. There’s no true advantage trying to break down who wins this game and applying anything more than 1 or 2 points.
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