The NFL returns with another loaded slate of games on Sunday. Instead of the 10-game early card and the short later card, the action is much more staggered. We’ll have one fewer game thanks to the pair of Monday Night Football games. Let’s dive into our NFL Week 3 player prop bets and picks. If you need help finding sharp bets on your own, check out our NFL player prop betting strategy guide — or check here for more free NFL expert picks!
NFL Week 3 Player Props: Best Bets for Sunday, September 22
NFL Week 3 Player Props | Best Bets for Sunday, September 22
Gardner Minshew II Player Prop: O/U 220.5 Passing Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois. Find all of Isaiah’s expert picks now by clicking here! Take 50% off your first week or month with code “TPI50”.
The Las Vegas Raiders will take on the Carolina Panthers, who are now led by Andy Dalton, this weekend. Over the last two seasons, Carolina has been a great team to fade opposing quarterbacks again, largely due to their incompetent rushing defense and inability to keep games close.
In 2023, Carolina allowed only 182.8 passing yards per game to quarterbacks (this filters out negative sack yardage). So far this season, that number is down to 165. Again, their poor run defense and non-existent offense are largely to blame, but solid playmakers in the secondary like Jaycee Horn deserve credit, too.
It’s possible that Dalton changes that formula, but regardless, Minshew’s passing yardage prop is too high for what head coach Antonio Pierce wants to do. We saw the Raiders have to play from behind in both of the last two weeks, but they should have a chance to establish the run this weekend, taking some pressure off their quarterback.
While the numbers haven’t backed up Pierce’s preseason words about the run game, this is the perfect get-right spot for them. Sure, the unit has been “piss-poor” (those are Pierce’s words, not mine), but they won’t be this week. With defensive tackle Derrick Brown out for the year starting last week, the Panthers gave up 201 rushing yards to running backs and only 130 passing yards to Justin Herbert. Buy low on Vegas runners, sell high on the Vegas quarterback.
Best NFL Week 3 Player Prop Pick: Gardner Minshew II Under 220.5 Passing Yards -110 Fanatics
Bo Nix Player Prop: O/U 185.5 Passing Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois.
Look, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has not been impressive to start his career. He is 0-2 with zero touchdown passes and four interceptions. But with him averaging 38.5 passing attempts per game, the volume is clearly there, and I trust him in this spot against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s defense has been a pass funnel for years now. I personally date that trend back to the arrival of nose tackle Vita Vea. To open the year, Tampa has allowed only 169 rushing yards to running backs to go with 491 passing yards to quarterbacks.
Last season these trends were more obvious. The Buccaneers gave up the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs (81.2) but the third-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks (268.7). With head coach Todd Bowles still running the show, it’s fair to expect more of the same this season.
Nix’s passing yardage prop is only 185.5 at FanDuel, but it’s 190.5 at Pinnacle and most other books. With nice weather in the forecast for Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, I expect Nix to pay off his high passing volume. Head coach Sean Payton just has to start trusting him to get the ball downfield.
Best NFL Week 3 Player Prop Pick: Bo Nix Over 185.5 Passing Yards -113 at FanDuel
Caleb Williams Player Prop: O/U
Pick by Danny Burke. Find all of Danny’s expert picks now — get your first week for $1 with code “BURKESBETS”!
Quarterback Caleb Williams has not lived up to the hype of the number one pick in the draft so far. Through two weeks, Chicago’s rookie quarterback has thrown 37 completions on 66 attempts (56%), two interceptions and no touchdowns. His trajectory will change this week.
Because of his poor performance on primetime TV, we’re seeing a shorter line than we should for this prop. The Indianapolis Colts rank 29th in dropback EPA and 20th in dropback success rate. They’re also allowing the second-highest completion percentage in the league at 78.3%, with only the Giants faring worse.
Williams still managed to complete 23 passes on Sunday night against the Texans despite having minimal time in the pocket. Another week of preparation and experience should benefit him, along with facing an Indianapolis defensive line dealing with injuries. Look for Williams and this Bears offense to bounce back after a pair of underwhelming performances.
Best NFL Week 3 Player Prop Pick: Caleb Williams Over 19.5 Completions -118 at BetRivers
James Conner Player Prop: O/U 61.5 Rushing Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois.
The Detroit Lions invest heavily in the trenches. This is true on both sides of the football. The consequence of this is that they generate a ton of line yards on offense and allow very few on defense. Last week, Rachaad White averaged a measly 0.2 yards before contact per attempt. In Week 1, Kyren Williams averaged 1.3. It won’t be easy for Conner to do much on the ground.
The Lions are also a sizeable home favorite for this game, and while I’m bullish on the Cardinals in this spot, the game script undoubtedly calls for a pass-heavy attack, not a run-first approach. That could limit Conner’s volume. Through Week 2, Conner is averaging 18.5 rushing attempts per game, which should tick back down. He averaged only 16 last year.
Aside from Detroit’s steady defensive line, I’m also skeptical of Arizona’s offensive line. The unit ranks 24th in run-block win rate (70%) through two weeks. Nose tackle D.J. Reader will cause problems for them in the interior and should attract double teams, forcing tougher matchups on the edge. Reader posted a PFF grade of 82.2 last season.
Conner’s rushing yardage prop is as high as 61.5 at BetMGM. I doubt that it will close this high, so I recommend locking in the under while we’re over the 60-yard mark. It’s always a little sweaty when a single explosive play can cook us, but I’m willing to take my chances thanks to Detroit’s front seven.
Best NFL Week 3 Player Prop Pick: James Conner Under 61.5 Rushing Yards -115 at BetMGM
