A couple of quick notes about this week’s confidence pool, as we hit the final week of the opening month of the season! This is the first week where bumping up an upset can help separate an entry from the rest of the field. We’ve done that with a couple of teams. There’s also great value in taking a tight division matchup and bumping up that winner for a higher score. Let’s get one with our NFL Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks!
NFL Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
Kansas City Chiefs (-420) at New York Jets
The Chiefs already had their wakeup call to start the season. There’s no more early letdown for them, certainly not against Zach Wilson and the Jets. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes could field a preseason roster on offense and still put enough points up to make it impossible for the Jets to match. That could easily be 10-14 points. Unfortunately for New York, they are going to give up a lot more than that.
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Some of this is dropping two other heavy favorites down because of a couple of key concerns. The other half of this play is just relying on Jim Schwartz and the revamped Browns defense. Schwartz has significantly better splits at home and the Browns defense immediately responded to their new leader. Deshaun Watson and the offense did plenty without Nick Chubb last week and should take advantage of some lingering injuries on the Ravens side. Lamar Jackson can’t do it all by himself, not this week.
San Francisco 49ers (-835) vs Arizona Cardinals
This 14-point line is probably too large for an opportunistic Cardinals defense coming off a massive upset. The issue is their offense and how consistent they can be facing a monster Niners pass rush. San Fran is one of the best and most complete teams across the NFL, putting so much pressure on opposing quarterbacks to score nearly every drive. Ultimately Arizona falls short.
Dallas Cowboys (-285) vs New England Patriots
A similar situation here in Dallas as the Cowboys are expected to bounce right back following a miserable loss to the Cardinals. New England is a good matchup in some spots, allowing the Cowboys defense to get back to attacking the QB and trying to force some turnovers. Mac Jones is certainly attackable and the Cowboys defense will look better than last week. The issue might be the Patriots defense picking up what worked with Arizona, but the Pats aren’t talented enough on offense to win.
Philadelphia Eagles (-375) vs Washington Commanders
Don’t be afraid to drop this one a little bit despite what the Eagles just did in Tampa Bay. The Commanders are an improved team that already matches up well on defense with the Eagles. They have individual rushers who can apply pressure as the league looks to shift its coverages on Jalen Hurts, forcing a lot more underneath action. Washington’s offense is the key here and could be good enough to force the upset, as their OC just coached against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. This is going to be too much Hurts in the end, especially in front of the home crowd.
Denver Broncos (-162) at Chicago Bears
Neither one of these teams are good. They are lucky to even be in the NFL following last week’s results. The difference here is how deep these issues truly go. Sean Payton’s only glimpse of insight following that loss came when he mentioned how nobody is getting fired. The Broncos have lost to better teams and saw the league’s top offense shred their defense. They have been victim to terrible matchups and circumstance far more than anything with Chicago. Teams that get their tail kicked one week are great the following week. The key difference here is Chicago isn’t a week or two away from fixing anything, unless they want to fire some people.
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Cincinnati Bengals (-130) at Tennessee Titans
The Bengals are getting better as Joe Burrow gets any healthier. They came off a big and necessary win against the Rams, led by their defense and placekicker. Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Ja’Marr Chase are still one of the more dangerous trios in the NFL. The Titans offense is shot and it’s only a matter of time before Mike Vrabel has to make a change at QB. Their defense was shredded by a Browns team missing their best player and just returning playing at home does nothing for the Titans. Derrick Henry is going to have to run for 200 yards off 30 carries and score multiple times agains the Bengals, which isn’t happening behind that Titans line.
Detroit Lions (-112) at Green Bay Packers***
Bump up the Pack upsetting the Lions on a short week. Detroit comes off a convincing win but takes on a team with more talent and motivation. Green Bay saw Jordan Love lead another victory with some big numbers, all without Aaron Jones and Christian Watson. Both are trending towards at least having a shot to play this week. Detroit might be without David Montgomery and can’t afford to be one dimensional versus the Packers. This is also a revenge game from last year, which is about as much motivation as a team can get.
Los Angeles Chargers (-250) vs Las Vegas Raiders
It’s physically impossible to put the Chargers any higher on the list this week despite all of the issues with the Raiders. LA’s coach continues to make mind boggling decisions and sounds reinforced after his postgame comments – hey they won. The Raiders are without Jimmy Garroppolo and should struggle at the onset of the game. The Chargers are without Mike Williams and possibly Austin Ekeler, but they won’t need them. Justin Herbert can throw to just about anyone on that team and still roast that Raiders secondary, just like Kenny Pickett.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-148) vs Atlanta Falcons
This game is in London and essentially serves as a home game for the Jags. Jacksonville needs some serious soul searching following a disastrous loss to the Texans, so playing in front of their “home away from home fans” should be a boost. Trevor Lawrence is comfortable overseas and Doug Pederson will have them bouncing back. Atlanta isn’t much better or worse than the Jags, it’s just the Falcons have come to grips with them not throwing much at all. There’s a full home field edge given to the Jags which should be enough to take them here.
Buffalo Bills (-135) vs Miami Dolphins***
The Miami Dolphins are for real. Just exactly what that looks like on a week to week basis is still up for definition, but they are capable of exploding. Their backups are better than most teams secondary units and Mike McDaniel has a pulse of the offense. Miami has been able to run on top of just dropping back and launching the football in the air.Tua doesn’t need to throw for 8 TDs each week as they can stretch and exploit defenses. The Bills are still dealing with what could be a reckless Josh Allen. While they have a great set of receivers led by Stephon Diggs, it’s the run game that could be an issue against Miami’s defensive front. This game is going to be a battle, possibly a track meet in which Buffalo lacks the endurance.
New Orleans Saints (-162) vs Tampa Bay Bucs***
The Saints make a swap from the injured Derek Carr to the pick happy Jameis Winston. Neither one of these guys are truly any good but it’s still a dip from Carr to Winston. The offense wasn’t lighting it up before their new guy went down so don’t expect much to change. The Saints have a great defense despite going up against injured or just bad offenses, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense will have a quick turnaround but are still the most talented unit the Saints D has faced. The Bucs run defense is more than capable of slowing down the return of Alvin Kamara as TB wins outright.
Minnesota Vikings (-172) at Carolina Panthers
The Vikings are another winless team – like Denver – that’s better than their record. Circumstances have led this team to a horrific 0-3 start, but unlike their opponent, things could turn around rather quickly. Carolina’s QB issues aside, their offense isn’t good enough to score multiple times per game, not consistently at least. The Vikings bought the bad end of the stick against a stupid Chargers coach, as Kirk Cousins turtled up in the final play. The Chargers are still far more talented on offense than the Panthers, so expect the Vikings to finally get their first W.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-150) at Houston Texans
Pittsburgh’s pass rush is ferocious but the Texans have protected fine even with some injuries up front. CJ Stroud has played well including through injury, and their defense just performed well last week against a far better opponent on offense. Apparently there were travel issues for the Steelers following their Sunday Night game, so it’s technically a shorter week for them. The Steelers offense isn’t good. They needed a bomb 72-yard TD to show any true signs of life, otherwise it’s just grinding it out. The Texans are good enough to stay in this game long enough to force an upset, even though they will fall short.
Indianapolis Colts (-115) vs Los Angeles Rams
Gardner Minshew led his Colts to an improbable win. Improbable because outside of multiple assists from the referees, the Colts would lose before overtime. Stuff happens but don’t expect that win to propel this Colts team to anything massive, the league has a funny way of working itself out each week. Minshew is still awful career SU and ATS as a starting QB and the Rams defense is still good enough to force some sacks. Matthew Stafford doesn’t have his main guys but will protect the ball better than his counterpart.
New York Giants (-120) vs Seattle Seahawks***
There’s zero reason why the Giants should be favored in this game outside of it being a home game. There’s some myth that Pete Carroll’s Seahawks team will struggle going cost to coast, but in prime time it’s far easier to adjust. The Seahawks get Jamal Adams back in a key spot at safety, hoping to limit some big plays in the air. The great news for the Seahawks is how limited the Giants are in that department. Saquon Barkley is questionable and even if he’s healthy won’t make enough of a difference.
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