After a thrilling Week 3, the contenders are starting to rise to the top. The NFC North looks at a lot more competitive than many expected, especially with Sam Darnold impressing at the helm of the Minnesota Vikings. Let’s dive into the early NFL odds for Week 4 — as well as two NFL Week 4 expert picks. If you need more NFL expert picks and analysis, learn how to find them on your own by reading our NFL betting strategy guide.
NFL Week 4 Expert Picks & Early Odds
NFL Week 4 Expert Picks & Early Odds: Steelers-Colts, Cowboys-Giants & More
What Have We Learned So Far?
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest year-over-year movers in offensive EPA (or EPA per play, so positive numbers indicate improvement), defensive EPA (or EPA per play allowed, so negative numbers indicate improvement) and net EPA (EPA per play – EPA per play allowed) through Week 3. Note that these are all relative to last season — good teams that have gotten worse will stand out. Good teams that are still good will not.
You can find my notes on these numbers on X. Keep scrolling to find this week’s free pick!
| Team | Δ Offensive EPA | Δ Defensive EPA | Δ Net EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 0.200 | -0.111 | 0.311 🔥 |
| Minnesota | 0.101 | -0.199 | 0.300 🔥 |
| NY Jets | 0.342 | 0.049 | 0.293 |
| New Orleans | 0.170 | -0.114 | 0.284 |
| LA Chargers | 0.034 | -0.226 | 0.260 |
| Seattle | -0.043 | -0.284 | 0.241 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.034 | -0.190 | 0.224 |
| Arizona | 0.134 | -0.080 | 0.214 |
| Washington | 0.366 | 0.214 | 0.152 |
| Green Bay | -0.021 | -0.116 | 0.095 |
| NY Giants | 0.093 | -0.001 | 0.094 |
| Denver | -0.106 | -0.170 | 0.064 |
| Chicago | -0.144 | -0.191 | 0.047 |
| Cincinnati | 0.122 | 0.106 | 0.016 |
| New England | 0.117 | 0.131 | -0.014 |
| Philadelphia | -0.018 | -0.003 | -0.015 |
| Detroit | -0.044 | -0.022 | -0.022 |
| Atlanta | 0.035 | 0.067 | -0.032 |
| Houston | -0.026 | 0.007 | -0.033 |
| Kansas City | 0.053 | 0.089 | -0.036 |
| Indianapolis | -0.067 | 0.012 | -0.079 |
| Tampa Bay | -0.018 | 0.065 | -0.083 |
| Carolina | -0.043 | 0.049 | -0.092 |
| Tennessee | -0.193 | -0.073 | -0.120 |
| Baltimore | 0.035 | 0.192 | -0.157 |
| Las Vegas | -0.065 | 0.110 | -0.175 |
| San Francisco | -0.090 | 0.108 | -0.198 |
| Cleveland | -0.098 | 0.129 | -0.227 |
| Jacksonville | -0.084 | 0.167 | -0.251 |
| LA Rams | -0.022 | 0.233 | -0.255 |
| Miami | -0.310 | 0.042 | -0.352 |
| Dallas | -0.174 | 0.189 | -0.363 💩 |
Three games isn’t a ton to work with, but, at this point in the year, meaningful trends can be distinguished from noise. For instance, the Dallas Cowboys seem to actually be a lot worse than they were last season, while the Minnesota Vikings seem to be much better.
Early NFL Odds for Week 3
Let’s look at some of the NFL odds at BetMGM for Week 3’s full slate of games.
Dallas @ NY Giants
Spread: NY Jets -6.5
Total: O/U 45.5
LA Rams @ Chicago
Spread: Chicago -3
Total: O/U 41
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Spread: Pittsburgh -1.5
Total: O/U 40
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Spread: Philadelphia -2
Total: O/U 44
Jacksonville @ Houston
Spread: Houston -6.5
Total: O/U 45
New England @ San Francisco
Spread: San Francisco -10.5
Total: O/U 40.5
Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Spread: Kansas City -7.5
Total: O/U 39.5
Tennessee @ Miami
Spread: Buffalo -1
Total: O/U 36.5
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Spread: Atlanta -2.5
Total: O/U 42.5
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Spread: Green Bay -2.5
Total: O/U 43.5
Denver @ NY Jets
Spread: NY Jets -7.5
Total: O/U 49.5
Cincinnati @ Carolina
Spread: Cincinnati -4
Total: O/U 47
Washington @ Arizona
Spread: Arizona -3.5
Total: O/U 50.5
Cleveland @ Las Vegas
Spread: Las Vegas -2
Total: O/U 37
Buffalo @ Baltimore
Spread: Baltimore -2.5
Total: O/U 46.5
Seattle @ Detroit
Spread: Detroit -3.5
Total: O/U 46.5
NFL Expert Picks for Week 4: Cowboys @ Giants & Steelers @ Colts
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays!
Cowboys @ Giants NFL Expert Pick
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NFL Expert Pick for Week 4: Malik Nabers Over 69.5 Receiving Yards -120 at Fliff
Steelers @ Colts NFL Expert Pick
We’ve hummed along to 2-0 on NFL teasers in this space. In Week 2, we cashed KC +1.5/MIN +10.5, with both teams winning outright. Last week, we cashed SEA +2.5/ARI +8.5. It was a bit of a nailbiter for the Arizona Cardinals, but I was right that a run-heavy team like Detroit would have a harder time than other teams covering all the way up to 10.
But instead of a teaser this week, we’re going with a moneyline dog. The Indianapolis Colts will host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon, and they’re trading as long as +105 at Fanatics to win this game.
While the EPA data above suggests the Steelers are the more improved team (and, to be clear, they are), let’s look at who these teams have played:
Indianapolis has faced Houston, Green Bay and Chicago. Pittsburgh has faced Atlanta, Denver and the LA Chargers (with an injured Justin Herbert).
In terms of actual net EPA, it’s clear that Indianapolis has played a harder schedule. The Steelers haven’t played a team with an above-average ranking in the metric (which, to be fair, is at least somewhat due to their defensive performances against them).
I ultimately am riding with Indianapolis because (a) HC Shane Steichen cooked them 30-13 last December without Anthony Richardson or Jonathan Taylor, (b) Richardson’s mobility limits the advantage Pittsburgh’s defense will gain from its pass rush and (c) Indianapolis’ offensive line ranks third in pass-block win rate and first in run-block win rate.
NFL Expert Pick for Week 4: Indianapolis ML +105 at Fanatics
