Heading into the second week of the NFL season, we have more data available to use when identifying the best bets of the weekend. This is true in more than one way. Not only is there more information on the players, but OddsShopper also went through an update to offer more prop bets! We rolled last week with a 3-0 card. These are a few of my favorite NFL model picks on the board for Week 4, including one prop for Anthony Richardson.
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NFL Model Picks Week 4: Props for Anthony Richardson, Nico Collins & More
Rams-Colts NFL Model Pick
Anthony Richardson O/U 47.5 Rushing Yards
Anthony Richardson is yet to hit the over on this rushing prop this season. This comes with an asterisk — Richardson had 35 rushing yards in his last game before leaving early because of a concussion, but I have concerns with his rushing ceiling. This is entirely due to the concussion. After getting a head injury in his second-ever NFL game, it stands to reason the Colts will build a more cautious game plan for him. I expect his rushing volume to decrease with him coming off the injury.
Rams-Colts NFL Model Pick: Anthony Richardson Under 47.5 Rushing Yards -110 at Bet365
Steelers-Texans NFL Model Pick
Niko Collins O/U 53.5 Receiving Yards
Nico Collins finally regressed last week. After a torrid first couple weeks of the season, he caught just two passes for 34 yards. The biggest red flag was his target share. Collins only drew three targets for the game as defenses are starting to make stopping him a bigger focus in their game plans. This could spell trouble for Collins, who is coming into Week 4 with another gaudy receiving prop.
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Steelers-Texans NFL Model Pick: Nico Collins Under 53.5 Receiving Yards -113 at FanDuel
Chiefs-Jets NFL Model Pick
Jerick McKinnon O/U 10.5 Rushing Yards
At first glance, this line looks low, but Jerick McKinnon isn’t all that involved in the Chiefs’ running game this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is seeing a bigger role, reducing the volume McKinnon has seen. McKinnon does have a small role in the passing game, but that isn’t meaningful for this prop bet. Through three games, McKinnon has a total of seven yards on three carries. His unders look good moving forward as long as none of Kansas City’s other running backs get hurt.
Chiefs-Jets NFL Model Pick: Jerick McKinnon Under 10.5 Rushing Yards -110 at Bet365
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 4 now!
