The NFL rolls on with another busy Week 4 slate. We don’t have any byes this week, but we do have another Monday doubleheader, giving us one fewer game ot work with on Sunday. Let’s dive into our NFL Week 4 player prop bets and picks. If you need help finding sharp bets on your own, check out our NFL player prop betting strategy guide — or check here for more free NFL expert picks!
NFL Week 4 Player Props: Best Bets for Sunday, September 29
NFL Week 4 Player Props | Best Bets for Sunday, September 29
Christian Watson Player Prop: O/U 31.5 Receiving Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois. Find all of Isaiah’s expert picks now by clicking here! Take 50% off your first week or month with code “TPI50”.
Of all the main slate games in Week 4, the one I’m most excited to watch is Vikings-Packers. We’ve got two offensive masterminds at head coach to go with two defensive gurus at defensive coordinator. These teams are a combined 5-1 this season despite plenty of injuries.
With quarterback Jordan Love expected to return for Green Bay, wideout Christian Watson is in a great spot to make a splash. Watson saw his usage scaled back in the scheme Matt LaFleur rolled out for Malik Willis, but his usage should bounce back with Love returning.
In Week 1, Watson notched season highs in snap share (62.7%), route participation (70.3%) and air yards (53). Even though he has just 80 receiving yards to his name on the season, his air yards share (18.4%) points to how valuable his targets are.
While I’m reasonably high on the Vikings defense, they have given up the second-most receiving yards per game to wideouts at 196.7. While they have kept opposing teams out of the end zone, they haven’t kept their wide receivers from moving the ball downfield. I expect Watson to do plenty of that this week.
You can get Watson to go over 31.5 receiving yards for -120 at DraftKings. Pair that with a bet on him to go for 45+ (+200 at DraftKings) and you’ve got yourself a nice little ladder bet. Lock this one in before the oddsmakers adjust the line.
Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop Pick: Christian Watson Over 31.5 Receiving Yards -120 DraftKings
Derek Carr Player Prop: O/U 206.5 Passing Yards
Pick by Portfolio EV. Take Portfolio EV for a spin for free with promo code “50”!
As you put together your betting card for Week 5, I encourage you to think about placing more bets for less money. That’s because even the sharpest bets are still subject to variance, and, as we all know, football is a high-variance sport.
Instead of treating bets like “sure-things” or “can’t-miss locks,” think about them as pieces within a broader investment portfolio. Sure, you’re probably not betting as much as you’re putting in your 401(k), but if you’re interested in making money, a similar strategy applies.
Using Portfolio EV, you can find hundreds of bets that have positive expected value (+EV) each day. Not all will be on the NFL, but if you add some new sports to your portfolio, your profits may increase as well. Through Week 4, Portfolio EV is a nice 422-354 (5.6% ROI) on the NFL.
The tool advises that we lock in this under for quarterback Derek Carr due to a massive market inefficiency. While Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -109 for the under 192.5, FanDuel is only charging us -113 for the under 206.5. That’s 14 extra yards for less than a percent of implied probability.
With several of Carr’s weapons banged up, including running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Chris Olave, it makes sense why the market isn’t sure what to do here. Take advantage and get a generous under for Carr while you can.
Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop Pick: Derek Carr Under 206.5 Passing Yards -113 at FanDuel
Roschon Johnson Player Prop: O/U 30.5 Rushing Yards
Pick by Danny Burke. Find all of Danny’s expert picks now — get your first week for $1 with code “BURKESBETS”!
The Chicago Bears running attack has been a nightmare. They rank 31st in rushing success rate and are averaging three yards per carry. Perhaps this will be the week where those numbers improve.
Chicago takes on the Los Angeles Rams, a team that ranks dead last in defensive rush success rate. They are allowing opposing tailbacks to average 5.1 yards per carry. I do expect the Bears to win this game, so I imagine, especially towards the end, that they will lean more on their ground game to milk the clock.
This week, reports indicated that Roschon Johnson will get an “extended look.” That’s music to every Bears fan’s ears, as their starting running back, D’Andre Swift, has completely underperformed by averaging only 1.8 yards per carry on 37 rushes for a total of 68 yards.
Last week, Johnson rushed eight times for 30 yards. With an increased workload and a matchup against one of the league’s worst run defenses, his production should naturally increase, too. This presents a great opportunity for us to capitalize.
Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop Pick: Roschon Johnson Over 30.5 Rushing Yards -113 at FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers Player Prop: O/U 221.5 Passing Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois.
Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets dismantled the New England Patriots on national television last Thursday. They’ve now gotten a long week to prepare for the Denver Broncos — the team that unceremoniously fired now-Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett after less than a season. But while many are focused on a revenge narrative, I’m more interested in a numbers-based one.
Denver’s passing defense has been formidable. The Broncos rank eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback, and, more importantly for our purposes, first in passing yards allowed per game (150.3).
The Broncos haven’t given up more than 200 passing yards to a single quarterback this season. Their secondary deserves plenty of credit, dismal run defense deserve credit, too. Denver ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game (126.0).
With Rodgers playing alongside two electric rushers in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, he probably won’t have to do that much on Sunday afternoon. Further, with Denver’s pass rush ranked second in pass-rush win rate (60%) and New York missing right tackle Morgan Moses, a run-heavy game plan is the smart call for multiple reasons.
Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 221.5 Passing Yards -115 at Hard Rock
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop: O/U 253.5 Passing Yards
Pick by Isaiah Sirois.
The Kansas City Chiefs will visit the injury-riddled Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Even a quick look at the L.A. injury report is enough to get a picture of how bad things are for them — Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are all out or questionable. Safety Derwin James is suspended, too.
Vegas anticipates a big win for the Chiefs. The spread for this one is all the way up at 7.5, which honestly might be a bit low given the state of this Chargers roster. That said, the possible blowout game script would limit the passing attempts for Patrick Mahomes, even if he can play more efficiently than usual against this defense.
But even with the injuries, I have plenty of faith in the Chargers’ ability to limit Mahomes’ passing production. Defense coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit ranks seventh in EPA allowed per dropback and 10th in passing yards allowed per game when we filter out sack yardage (195.3).
While the injuries will make replicating that success harder, the offense helps this defense out a lot. Los Angeles ranks dead last in seconds per play (33.2). Keeping the ball away from Mahomes will be crucial for this Chargers team in Week 4, and, if they can get the job done in that department, he’ll have even fewer pass attempts with which to be efficient.
Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 253.5 Passing Yards -115 at BetMGM
