Let’s go! We turned a big profit last week — my early NFL picks went 5-2, and one of those losses came by just the hook. We’re onto Week 4, and I’ve got my eye on a number of juicy spots. Let’s dive into my NFL Week 4 predictions so that we can talk about the best NFL picks for Lions-Packers, Jaguars-Falcons, Dolphins-Bills and more NFL Week 4 action.
NFL Week 4 Predictions: Picks for Jaguars-Falcons, Dolphins-Bills, Chiefs-Jets & More
Jaguars-Falcons NFL Week 4 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Jaguars: -148 | Falcons: +126
Jaguars -3: -105 | Falcons +3: -115
Over 43.5: -110 | Under 43.5: -110
For updated Jaguars-Falcons odds and picks, click here!
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons will travel to London for another installment in the NFL’s International Series. We’ll get to watch football extra early because of the 9:30 a.m. kickoff, which I’m looking forward to doing. Unfortunately, if you’re expecting a high-scoring game, this probably isn’t the matchup for you. Jacksonville’s inefficient offense and Atlanta’s run-heavy, slow-paced scheme should keep the scoring to a minimum across the pond.
Let’s start with Jacksonville’s offense. The Jaguars were one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses last year but currently rank 22nd in EPA per rush and 29th in EPA per dropback. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranks 27th in the metric, slightly ahead of Atlanta’s 30th-ranked Desmond Ridder. While Jacksonville should benefit from some positive regression soon, they’ll have to contend with an Atlanta defense that ranks a steady sixth in EPA allowed per rush. The Falcons do rank only 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, however.
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But Atlanta’s struggles against the pass are made up for by Arthur Smith’s brand of complementary football. The Falcons’ efficient running game will allow them to keep the ball away from Lawrence and work the clock. They rank seventh in rushing play percentage (47.6%) and 10th in EPA per rush attempt, helping them hold their opponents to the sixth-fewest plays per game (61). The Falcons have coughed up totals of 10, 24 and six points over their first three games, which have seen an average of just 36.3 points scored.
Traveling abroad can be disorienting for teams, but lately, we’ve seen the long trip depress scoring — at least when the Jaguars take the field. None of Jacksonville’s last four London games produced more than 43 points. Those contests saw an average of just 37.8 points scored. It’s hard to project Jacksonville’s offense for their implied total of 23 given how inefficient they’ve looked this year, and Atlanta’s offense may struggle to reach 20 if the unit can successfully wind out the clock with a lead. Buy the under 43.5 before the market settles on a lower number.
Jaguars-Falcons NFL Week 4 Pick & Prediction: Under 43.5 -110 at Caesars
Dolphins-Bills NFL Week 4 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Dolphins: +120 | Bills: -142
Dolphins +3: -120 | Bills -3: -102
Over 53.5: -105 | Under 53.5: -115
For updated Dolphins-Bills odds and picks, click here!
The Miami Dolphins will head into Orchard Park after dropping a monstrous 70 points last week. I expect plenty of public action to come in on them for this matchup against the Buffalo Bills, but the home team is favored for a reason. The Dolphins may rank third in EPA per rush and first in EPA per pass, but the Bills rank fourth and fifth, respectively. Buffalo’s defense has also fared much better than Miami’s — the Bills rank 13th in EPA allowed per rush and second in EPA allowed per dropback, while the Dolphins rank 30th and 10th, respectively. Miami’s passing defense could also take a hit because the team’s leader in pass-rush win rate, Jaelan Phillips, suffered an injury in Week 3.
The Dolphins certainly run an efficient offense, but their stats are bolstered by two games against cupcake defenses, and they’re in for a wake-up call this weekend. Miami looked much less unstoppable against New England, and Buffalo’s defense is even better than theirs in several key areas. First, Buffalo ranks third in pass-rush win rate (57%), largely because of interior defensive linemen DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver. Miami’s offensive line ranks 12th in pass-block win rate but could be without star center Connor Williams, who is day-to-day. Further, left guard Isaiah Wynn has proven quite beatable and owns a PFF grade of 55.7.
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Second, Buffalo’s secondary will cause problems for Miami’s passing game. Starting safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde have limited Tyreek Hill before — the last time they faced Hill together, he caught only seven of his 13 targets for 63 yards and no touchdowns. Buffalo’s defense should pressure Tua Tagovailoa and prevent Miami’s star receivers from breaking off too many big plays, which is what they did early last season: Buffalo’s defense held Hill and Jaylen Waddle to only 135 yards and no scores when these teams met last September.
Buffalo’s offense should roll against the sketchy Miami defense. Remember, the Dolphins nearly lost to the Chargers in Week 1. They’ve benefited from playing a pair of below-average offenses since then, but this Buffalo offense is far better than anything they’ve faced to this point. The Dolphins rank an impressive eighth in pass-rush win rate (50%) but now face an offensive line that ranks seventh in pass-block win rate (63%). Miami’s 31st-place ranking in run-stop win rate (26%) will also prove to be a liability against a Buffalo line that ranks eighth in run-block win rate (73%).
Dolphins-Bills NFL Week 4 Pick & Prediction: Buffalo ML/Over 43.5 +100 at FanDuel
Broncos-Bears NFL Week 4 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Broncos: -166 | Bears: +140
Broncos -3.5: -104 | Bears +3.5: -118
Over 46: -110 | Under 46: -110
For updated Broncos-Bears odds and picks, click here!
Degenerates of the world, rejoice! In true sicko fashion, I’m getting some action in this awful battle between two 0-3 teams. The Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos are both coming off devastating blowout losses. If there is any morale left in these locker rooms, it’s sure to dissipate soon. With Chicago’s bad offense taking on a terrible Denver defense, I want exposure to the Bears’ team total, especially with it set at just 20.5. The Broncos coughed up 17 to the Raiders, 35 to the Commanders and 70 to the Dolphins, so this isn’t a big ask for Justin Fields and company.
Fields is a deeply flawed quarterback, just as this is a deeply flawed offensive scheme, but there are at least two silver linings to discuss: the run game and the offensive line. Chicago ranks a solid 14th in EPA per rush attempt, assisted heavily by an offensive line that ranks second in run-block win rate (76%). The line also ranks sixth in pass-block win rate (64%). Chicago draws a Denver defense that ranks a dreadful 25th in run-stop win rate (29%) and 32nd in pass-rush win rate (29%). The Broncos also rank dead last in EPA allowed per both rush and dropback.
The Fields-led Bears are averaging only 15.7 points per game this year, and they averaged only 19.2 per game last year, but even a broken clock is right twice per day. Fields’ Bears recorded 21 or more points seven times last year, doing so in 46.7% of his starts. They’re just yet to do so this season. Of the teams the Bears have played so far this year — the Packers, Buccaneers and Chiefs — two had lined up against Fields at least once before. Fortunately for them, neither the Broncos nor defensive coordinator Vance Joseph have faced Fields before. That bodes well for their offense.
The already-bad Denver defense is also dealing with some injury issues that should lead Chicago’s team total to close at 21.5 or higher. Inside linebacker Josey Jewell suffered a groin injury against Miami and could not return. Pass rusher Frank Clark and safety Justin Simmons both missed Week 3 with injuries after failing to practice all week as well. They are both questionable at best for Week 4’s game against Chicago. Justin Fields and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy are trending in the wrong direction, but they’ll get to show out at least once more for the Chicago faithful.
Broncos-Bears NFL Week 4 Pick & Prediction: Chicago Team Total Over 20.5 -120 at Caesars
Raiders-Chargers NFL Week 4 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Raiders: +205 | Chargers: +205
Raiders +6: -115 | Chargers -6: -105
Over 47.5: -115 | Under 47.5: -105
The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Las Vegas Raiders in a battle between two of the worst head coaches in the game right now. Josh McDaniels made one of the worst head-coaching decisions of all time last week by choosing to attempt a field goal late in the fourth quarter while trailing by eight points. The Steelers bailed him out by committing a penalty, which McDaniels accepted — only to then kick another field goal later that same drive. His mind-bogglingly poor coaching deserves to be called out more than it has been, but I digress.
McDaniels has designed neither an effective offense nor chosen an effective defensive coordinator, and it shows. The Raiders may rank 12th in EPA per dropback, but they rank 32nd in EPA per rush. The defense ranks 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 22nd in EPA allowed per rush. Worse, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is now in the concussion protocol, leaving the Raiders with career backup Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell. Despite Las Vegas’ quarterback woes, the Chargers are only a 5.5-point home favorite.
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I may not like Staley, but I did like his choice to hire offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and it has paid early dividends. The Chargers rank fourth in EPA per dropback and 13th in EPA per rush. Their defense may be awful — the unit ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback and 12th in EPA allowed per rush — but those numbers are skewed by two games against two top-10 quarterbacks by EPA, Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa. Sunday’s game against a shaky backup or an unproven rookie is a great get-right spot.
I’m buying the Chargers to cover this spread and to go over their team total of just 27.5. They should cover a surprisingly narrow spread despite their poor defensive play to this point because the Las Vegas offense won’t be able to keep up with their L.A. counterparts, especially with the Las Vegas defense ranking 28th in pass-rush win rate (32%) and 24th in run-stop win rate (29%). This is by far the worst pass rush and secondary combination Justin Herbert has faced all season, and it’s a smash spot for the franchise quarterback, making this one of my top NFL Week 4 picks.
Raiders-Chargers NFL Week 4 Pick & Prediction: L.A. -5.5 -110 at BetMGM
Chiefs-Jets NFL Week 4 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Chiefs: -500 | Jets: +385
Chiefs -9.5: -115 | Jets +9.5: -105
Over 42.5: -110 | Under 42.5: -110
The Kansas City Chiefs will visit the New York Jets on Sunday in what should devolve into another beatdown of Zach Wilson and company. It’s become abundantly clear that Wilson is not an NFL quarterback — since 2021, he ranks a distant 45th of 45 signal-callers to have played at least 250 snaps in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/CPOE composite metric. He is the only one with a negative score. Head coach Robert Saleh risks losing the locker room if he keeps trusting Wilson under center.
Say what you will about Zach Wilson, but at least he—oh, wait, nevermind. pic.twitter.com/qokpZn5OhB
— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) September 26, 2023
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football could be the last time we see Wilson as New York’s starter. The Jets signed veteran quarterback Trevor Siemian, and they have Tim Boyle currently working as Wilson’s backup. A blowout loss to the Chiefs would be the perfect opportunity for Saleh to guiltlessly re-bench the former second-overall pick and end the Wilson era in New York. Wilson is sure to struggle against a Kansas City defensive front that has looked much better since the return of Chris Jones and is pressuring quarterbacks on 27% of their dropbacks.
The Jets are 9.5-point home underdogs to the Chiefs this week. Although New York’s defense ranks a solid fourth in EPA allowed per rush, the unit also ranks 25th in EPA allowed per dropback, which is a virtual death sentence against Patrick Mahomes. A proximate cause of that decline is the worsening pass rush, which ranked third in pressure percentage (25.4%) last year but is down to 20th (19.2%) this year. Mahomes should get plenty of points on the board, easily outscoring a Jets offense that ranks 28th in EPA per rush and 32nd in EPA per dropback.
Maybe it’s a square move, but I’m buying a same-game parlay with slightly worse odds than the spread to minimize the risk of a backdoor. Not because I have any faith in Wilson, of course — but because I expect Saleh to finally pull the plug and make a quarterback change during this game. I’m buying the Chiefs to win by at least seven while holding the Jets to less than 21.5 points, which you can buy for odds of -130 (56.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook — that outcome has a far higher probability than the implied odds suggest.
Chiefs-Jets NFL Week 4 Pick & Prediction: Kansas City -6.5/New York Team Total Under 21.5 -130 at DraftKings
Seahawks-Giants NFL Week 4 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Seahawks: +102 | Giants: -120
Seahawks +1.5: -110 | Giants -1.5: -110
Over 46.5: -115 | Under 46.5: -105
The New York Giants enter their Week 4 Monday Night Football game against the Seattle Seahawks as slight favorites. They’ll benefit from both home-field advantage and a few days of extra rest, but I’d list Seattle as the favorite for this one. Sure, head coach Brian Daboll has gone 3-0 against the spread and 2-0-1 straight up when playing with a rest advantage. His team also ranks among the NFL’s worst in several key metrics, including EPA per pass attempt — the Giants rank 27th in that metric, far behind the seventh-ranked Seahawks. Those worried about New York’s home-field advantage should note that Seattle is tied for the NFL’s fifth-best record as a road underdog since 2022.
New York deserves some slack for having played a tough schedule thus far, but this team needed to string together a wild second-half comeback just to beat the Arizona Cardinals. The lone silver lining for the Giants has been the running game, but the injury to Saquon Barkley could hold him out — or at least limit him — in Week 4. Further, Seattle’s defense ranks 10th in EPA allowed per rush attempt, largely because of a defensive front that ranks seventh in run-stop win rate (33%).
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The Giants have a talent-poor roster that requires their few above-replacement-level players to produce at an elite level for the team to find any success. Unfortunately, several of their big names, including Barkley, are already hurt. Star left tackle Andrew Thomas missed Week 3 with an injury after logging limited practice sessions all week. Although he could be back by Monday, he may even less help than before — left guard Ben Bredeson is in the concussion protocol, and right tackle Evan Neal suffered an ankle injury against the 49ers.
Geno Smith may not be the NFL’s best quarterback, but Seattle’s offense is stacked with elite weapons. Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III form an elite offensive core, drawing defensive attention away from rookie-year Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Noah Fant, helping the overall unit look that much better. Seattle’s seventh-ranked passing offense by EPA is a great complement to its top-ranked rushing offense. The once-terrible Seattle offensive line now ranks 10th in pass-block win rate (62%) and 11th in run-block win rate (72%), and it should help power this team to a road win on Monday.
Seahawks-Giants NFL Week 4 Pick & Prediction: Seattle ML +102 at DraftKings
Lions-Packers NFL Week 4 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Lions: -124 | Packers: +106
Lions -1.5: -105 | Packers +1.5: -110
Over 46.5: -115 | Under 46.5: -105
For updated Lions-Packers odds and picks, click here!
The Detroit Lions will visit the Green Bay Packers in an actually good Thursday Night Football matchup. In the two Thursday night games played following a short rest this season, we’ve seen the favorites go off for 30-plus points. The Eagles hung 34 on the Vikings and the 49ers hung 30 on the Giants. Although the Lions are the slimmest of favorites for this matchup, I expect plenty of points in this game, and Detroit’s offense is the best equipped to put them on the board.
The Lions have looked like one of the NFL’s best offenses again this year. They rank a steady ninth in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, which is a credit to Jared Goff, who ranks sixth among quarterbacks in the metric this season. Goff has an elite offensive line in front of him and impressive weapons in wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who owns an elite PFF grade of 79.4, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who owns an 80.7.
Green Bay’s defense isn’t all that threatening, especially with all of the key pieces on the initial injury report for this game. Cornerback Jaire Alexander, safety Zayne Anderson and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell were all estimated as DNPs for Monday’s session. Alexander missed Week 3’s game with a back issue that popped up on Friday’s injury report and could easily miss Week 4. His absence would open up plenty of opportunities for Goff to find his receivers open downfield.
Thursday Night Football is notoriously profitable for over bettors, and while I’m not getting action on the full-game total, it’s not a bad bet. Still, I’d rather just target the Lions to go over the 23.5-point team total for -102, a price that you can find at FanDuel. The Lions are averaging 24 points per game thus far after averaging 26.6 last season. They had some brutal home/away splits last season, but the short rest should make up for them having to play this one in Lambeau Field.
Lions-Packers NFL Week 4 Pick & Prediction: Detroit Team Total Over 23.5 -102 at FanDuel
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