As the bye weeks begin to mount in the NFL, it gets harder and harder to identify high-value anytime touchdown scorers. Fortunately, our staff has two picks for Week 5, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL anytime touchdown betting markets for Week 5, including A.J. Brown, for Eagles-Rams and Giants-Dolphins.
NFL Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Bets: Picks for Giants-Dolphins, Eagles-Rams & More
Bills-Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: NFL Network
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Who: Dawson Knox at FanDuel
Everyone is acting like tight end Dawson Knox doesn’t exist anymore because the Bills drafted another option at the position, Dalton Kincaid. But through four weeks, Knox is Fuffalo’s second-leading target-getter inside the red zone with five, one of which went for a touchdown. He trails only Stefon Diggs in red-zone target share. Meanwhile, Kincaid has earned just two red-zone targets, neither of which went for a score.
Knox earned nine red-zone targets from quarterback Josh Allen last year, and he found paydirt on five of them. He now takes on a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has coughed up two touchdowns and 271 receiving yards to tight ends. Only two teams that have played only four games have surrendered more yards to the position. The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite for this one, and I agree that they should be favored — but Knox should have shorter odds to find paydirt. He does at Pinnacle, a sharp book, where this line sits at only +307.
Bills-Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Dawson Knox +360 at FanDuel
Giants-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Bet
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Who: De’Von Achane at DraftKings
The Miami Dolphins are 12.5-point favorites over the New York Giants on Sunday, so even with the total set at just 47.5, they’re projected for 30 points. The books have priced Miami’s offensive weapons accordingly: Tyreek Hill at -150, Raheem Mostert at -120, Jaylen Waddle at +110 and De’Von Achane at +105. Well, hold on — Achane (6) and Mostert (7) lead the Dolphins in rushing and receiving touchdowns by a healthy margin. Then it’s Hill (4) and, well, Waddle hasn’t found the end zone yet this season.
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Achane’s odds of +105 at DraftKings feel like a bit of a misprice. Achane is -111 on the anytime touchdown scorer markets at Pinnacle, a sharp book, and -130 at FanDuel. He is actually tied with Mostert in red-zone carries with eight, and while Mostert has the advantage in carries inside the 10-yard line, Achane has the speed and agility to score from further out. He also ranks second on the team in red-zone targets (4), all of which came within the 10-yard line.
The New York Giants are a juicy defense to target because they can’t stop anything it seems. Running backs have been an especially large problem, as the Giants have coughed up the third-most touchdowns to the position on the ground (5). Opposing teams haven’t often turned to their backfield weapons as receivers against New York, likely because the Giants have almost always been playing from behind, but a red-zone screen for Achane is well within his range of outcomes. Buy him at the off-market price you’ll find on DraftKings.
Best Giants-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Pick for Week 5: De’Von Achane +105 at DraftKings
Eagles-Rams Anytime Touchdown Bet
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Cal.
Who: A.J. Brown at Caesars
A.J. Brown has been unleashed over the last two weeks. He has totaled 306 yards through the air and broke his touchdown drought last week with two. Quarterback Jalen Hurts continues to trust him down the field and in the red zone. Hurts made an effort to find Brown near the goal line during their Week 3 victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Brown was unsuccessful. He dropped multiple touchdown opportunities and had a touchdown called back due to running back Rashaad Penny holding on the play. Against the Los Angeles Rams underwhelming secondary, Brown will be asked to put on a clinic.
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Brown’s deep ball playmaking makes him a threat at any given time. His 559 air yards rank second most in the NFL. His aDOT is just as impressive. It ranks just below Tyreek Hill and above Justin Jefferson. A prop angle that will undoubtedly be popular on Sunday will be his longest reception prop set at 26.5, the over for which has cashed in his last two games. His seven catches of at least 20 yards rank in the top 10 in football. The Rams have kept multiple premiere wide receivers out of the endzone to start the season, but to get Brown +145 on Caesars while BetMGM is laying -125 is too good to pass up in what should be a shootout of a game.
Best Eagles-Rams Anytime Touchdown Pick for Week 5: A.J. Brown +145 at Caesars
