Week 5 is upon us as the first month of the NFL season comes to a close. There are some upsets brewing this week, so be careful in Atlanta and Indy! It’s getting to that point of the season where upsets can be moved up a little on your confidence sheet, but laying favorites remains the best strategy. The idea is if one of these heavy favorites does lose, losing fewer points is nearly as good as a low option upset. Here are the best confidence pool picks for Week 5 in the NFL!
NFL Week 5 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 5 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
Detroit Lions (-400) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Lions are really good this year and have improved on defense. The Panthers are struggling to move the ball with their rookie quarterback and face an insurmountable task in slowing down Detroit’s pass rush. The Lions can move the ball and score at a clip that Carolina simply can’t match. Even if it’s a lower-scoring game, the Lions will dominate.
Miami Dolphins (-530) vs. New York Giants
Another team that has better fortunes on defense than the stats may seem is the Dolphins, who should cruise to victory. The Giants are so bad it’s just hard to come up with rational reasons as to how they can stay in games, let alone win any. Daniel Jones is a disaster, Darren Waller is a ghost, and the head coach is reminiscing about the old days with Josh Allen. Fins roll.
Kansas City Chiefs (-225) at Minnesota Vikings
The Chiefs haven’t looked like themselves, at least to the eye test. The short week might push people toward taking Minnesota, but that’s better from a spread standpoint. As we have seen, the Chiefs are still good enough to beat anyone, and they are top five in both offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA). Sorry, Kirk, but Minny goes down.
Baltimore Ravens (-190) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Injuries have clearly caught up to the Steelers, but they just don’t seem to matter for the Ravens. Baltimore dominated another division foe last week and has a great chance to beat up Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers had a chance to take advantage of a banged-up Houston offensive line, but they instead gave up 30 points. There is absolutely nothing in Pittsburgh’s offensive game plan that would indicate they can keep up with Lamar Jackson, even if Baltimore’s offense is only Jackson.
Washington Commanders (-278) vs. Chicago Bears
I’m dropping this lower only because I love the Bears to cover the 6.5-to-7-point spread. There’s always the threat of an upset, but Chicago is still an awful football club with horrible leadership and questionable play. Washington came up short against a better Philadelphia team but is starting to find a rhythm on offense with quarterback Sam Howell and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. The biggest key here is for them to not have a letdown showing against the team with the most issues in the NFL. The good news for Commanders fans and confidence pool pickers is they won’t.
San Francisco 49ers (-170) vs Dallas Cowboys
The Niners may be the most complete team in the NFL with the most dangerous weapon in Christian McCaffery. Dallas comes off a necessary bounceback against a hapless Patriots offense, one that saw Mac Jones benched late. How bad would things have to get for Brock Purdy to land on the bench against the Cowboys? Exactly. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys showed a few issues still against the Pats’ defense, so expect the Niners rush to exploit that and make their lives difficult.
Buffalo Bills (-240) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Dropped just a tad here is the London game, as Jacksonville stayed the week following a win over Atlanta. The Bills rolled the Dolphins by suffocating them on defense. This just seems way too easy for Buffalo and any bets. The issue with the Jags hasn’t been talent or coaching but underachieving. They are a better team than their season would indicate so far, but the same coaches and players have been the culprit. That’s changeable, especially in this type of setting where there’s a small travel advantage. Buffalo wins, but it’s far from any blowout.
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Philadelphia Eagles (-210) vs. Los Angeles Rams
This is about as low as this play can go before moving to upset territory. The Eagles are good, undefeated, and super-talented. They have played three one-score games and could easily have been on the opposite side of the outcome. They remind us of this year’s Minnesota Vikings team from last year, skating by at times on one-score wins. L.A. is much better than expected without the services of Cooper Kupp, and they bring a tenacious and aggressive pass rush. The Rams should fall in line with other teams and keep Jalen Hurts in or around the pocket. L.A. can run the ball and play hard defense while getting after the quarterback. Hurts wins but barely.
Atlanta Falcons (-124) vs. Houston Texans***
What exactly has Desmond Ridder done to be favored in any contest? Nothing. Houston keeps exceeding expectations, especially with a banged-up offensive line. C.J. Stroud is light years better than Ridder, and it’s only been four games for Stroud. Houston is better coached even though it’s only been four games for DeMeco Ryans. Atlanta just suffered its first loss of the year with a solid performance on the ground, so even running the ball well doesn’t guarantee a Falcons win.
Indianapolis Colts (-110) vs. Tennessee Titans**
Mike Vrabel relishes the role of an underdog. His team just crushed last weekend and may have found some consistency on offense. That’s what is missing with the Colts as injuries at the quarterback position have forced them to go back and forth between offensive strategies. Ultimately, Anthony Richardson should be a fine talent in the NFL, but he goes up against one of the better schemers on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans should get enough out of Ryan Tannehill so they can pound Derrick Henry to paydirt. The Colts’ defense will put up a fight but not enough to win.
New England Patriots (-120) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints were a disaster last weekend in their blowout loss to the Bucs. The Patriots are so bad on offense they had to swap quarterbacks last week. Expect New England to emphasize the run in what should be the lowest-scoring game of the week. Neither team is well-equipped to deal with the other’s defense, so expect the Pats to squeak by with a narrow win.
Cincinnati Bengals (-160) at Arizona Cardinals
This works as either a low confidence play or an upset pick, but both are predicated on the REAL Joe Burrow not walking through that door. Not anytime soon. The Cards are a solid group on defense that’s been able to play well despite some key injuries. Josh Dobbs is actually okay a moving the ball and making a throw or two when needed. The Bengals are just so dead without their All-Pro quarterback fully healthy that it takes so much shine off their squad. This is probably an Arizona win, so the game drops this far, and you better believe Arizona is better than what you saw last week against the Niners.
Denver Broncos (-120) vs. New York Jets
Flip a coin. Both teams are brutal and neither have a quarterback to trust. Neither has a head coach who knows what they are doing. Neither team has any confidence and looks like a bunch of mercs thrown together to win a battle. The only thing that will change from last week is that Zach Wilson won’t look nearly as sharp as he did at times against the Chiefs. Fire this game into the sun as fast as possible.
Green Bay Packers (-130) at Las Vegas Raiders ***
The concern here is more on the Packers’ defense just allowing the Raiders to stay in this football game. We shall see the health of Jimmy Garoppolo but even if he’s banged up and plays, nothing is truly guaranteed in how long he stays in the game. Jordan Love and the Packers need help on the ground, as they have one of the worst run games in the NFL. Even holding a lead isn’t safe when a team struggles to run like Green Bay. This is another tight toss-up, but the Raiders get a minimal advantage at home.
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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