Although bye weeks have started, which narrows the NFL slate by a decent margin, that hasn’t stopped our team from digging up plenty of sharp NFL player props for Week 5 — and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 5, including C.J. Stroud, for Texans-Falcons, Giants-Dolphins and more Week 5 action.
NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bets: Picks for C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes & More
Texans-Falcons Player Prop Bet | Week 5
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Who: C.J. Stroud at FanDuel
Few quarterbacks have begun their careers in better form than C.J. Stroud. He is averaging 303 passing yards per game thus far, which puts him on pace for the highest average since at least 2010. To give you some perspective, he is beating out Justin Herbert (289.1), Andrew Luck (273.4) and Joe Burrow (268.8) in the metric — and it’s not close. We bet on some regression to the mean last week, and, although Stroud ended up with 306 passing yards, he got 52 of them on a meaningless late-game touchdown pass to Nico Collins. Stroud benefited from multiple explosive plays against a Steelers defense that couldn’t get off the field and got no help from an offense that couldn’t stay on it.
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This Sunday’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons will go differently. The Falcons are yet to surrender 248 passing yards to any quarterback this season. Atlanta is allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game to the position (186.8). Three factors account for the Falcons’ success against opposing quarterbacks, two of which are defensive. For one, the Atlanta defense finally has a pass rush again. The Falcons rank fourth in pressure percentage (29.5%) and 17th in pass-rush win rate (45%). With Stroud’s offensive line missing multiple pieces, that could be a problem. Second, the pass rush and new safety Jessie Bates III have helped boundary cornerback A.J. Terrell get back on track — he owns a 71.9 PFF grade while Bates owns a 92.
But third, and most importantly, Atlanta’s brand of complementary football helps keep opposing quarterbacks off the field. Although the Falcons rank 11th in seconds per play (28), they rank ninth in rushing play percentage (45.6%) and 10th in opponent plays per game (61.8). Head coach Arthur Smith has put together a roster intended to win narrow games by keeping the opposing team off the field, which is exactly what he has to do with a quarterback like Desmond Ridder under center. Although Atlanta has gotten blown out the last two weeks, opposing quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence (204 passing yards) and Jared Goff (243) both failed to clear this number. Back the under at FanDuel Sportsbook and hope Stroud doesn’t make history.
Best NFL Week 5 Player Prop Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 247.5 Passing Yards -115 at FanDuel
Panthers-Lions Player Prop Bet | Week 5
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit
Who: Hayden Hurst at BetMGM
The Carolina Panthers haven’t seen much production out of tight end Hayden Hurst since Week 1, but it’s not for a lack of targets. Hurst is averaging four targets but only 2.5 receptions per game this year. However, he has recorded at least three targets in every game this season, and he owns a route participation rate of 60%-plus in all of Carolina’s games. He now draws a matchup with a Detroit Lions defense that has struggled to defend tight ends all season, a trend that shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon.
But before we dive into Detroit’s struggles, let’s talk about Hurst’s production — or lack thereof. Hurst was rookie quarterback Bryce Young’s go-to target in Week 1 against the Falcons, and he caught five of seven targets for 41 yards. Atlanta pressured Young on 33.3% of his dropbacks. In Week 3, Young returned from a one-game absence to face the Saints. Hurst caught all three of his targets for 20 yards and Young was pressured 28.2% of the time. In Week 4, Young was pressured only 15.4% of the time, and Hurst caught only one of his three targets for seven yards.
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Hurst works as a safety valve in this offense, so Week 5’s matchup with a Detroit defense that ranks seventh in pressure percentage (27.7%) and last in receiving yards allowed to tight ends per game (75.8) bodes well for Hurst. It’s not like the Lions have faced elite tight ends, either — in Week 1, they coughed up 43 yards to Noah Gray and Blake Bell. Last week, Luke Musgrave, Josiah Deguara and Tucker Kraft combined for 40 yards. Their season-worst showing came in Week 3. Gray, Deguara, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts have all gone for 22-plus yards against Detroit. Hurst should add his name to that list come Sunday.
Best NFL Week 5 Player Prop Pick: Hayden Hurst Over 21.5 Receiving Yards -115 at BetMGM
Giants-Dolphins Player Prop Bet | Week 5
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Who: Tua Tagovailoa at FanDuel
Reality may have set in for the Miami Dolphins after their Week 4 loss to the Buffalo Bills. After a shootout in the first quarter and a half, the Bills put on a clinic to quiet the Dolphins. Led by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, the Bills outscored the Dolphins 34-13 in the final three quarters.
It’s no secret that the game script dictates these quarterback props. We backed Tua Tagovailoa last week, assuming that the Bills offense would have the Dolphins playing from behind. We read the script to perfection. Thanks to a perfect 7-for-7 start from Tagovailoa, his pass completion prop cashed with ease. Let’s turn to Week 5, where the Dolphins will play host to the disastrous New York Giants, who may be without star running back Saquon Barkley again. The Dolphins are 11.5-point favorites according to FanDuel, where they are also -670 on the moneyline.
As we saw on Monday Night Football between the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks, quarterback Geno Smith didn’t have to do much at all. He attempted just 20 passes and failed to sustain drives. I expect Miami to have much more success sustaining drives, but with the run game being the main factor. The two-headed monster between Raheem Mostert and rookie De’Von Achane led the Dolphins to wins in Weeks 2 and 3 — resulting in Tagovailoa staying under this line. Miami’s rushing attack leads all of football in yards per game.
The rest of the market has this player prop settled at 33.5 pass attempts with the vig on the under. We’ll gladly take the better number and price for a prop that has hit in two of the three Miami wins this season.
Best NFL Week 5 Player Prop Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 34.5 Pass Attempts -114 at FanDuel
Eagles-Rams Player Prop Bet | Week 5
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Cal.
Who: DeVonta Smith at Caesars Sportsbook
If you ask any fantasy football player or person around the NFL right now, Puka Nacua is a mix of Jerry Rice, Calvin Johnson and Terrell Owens … only better. I mean, don’t get me wrong, the fella has been great and all, but, uh, let’s chill out. For this game, we’re targeting a wide receiver, but it’s not who you think.
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Puka? Nope. A.J. Brown? Guess again. Cooper Kupp?!? Bruh … no.
It’s a DeVonta Smith week — and for all of the reasons why it took you so many guesses to get to the third-year wideout. He is getting overlooked in the markets, and, obviously, teams are scheming more to mitigate A.J. Brown. As a result, I want some exposure to DeVonta Smith’s receptions.
Smith has 22 catches through four games this season, bookended by seven-reception games in Weeks 1 and 4. He had four receptions in Weeks 2 and 3. We saw how Jalen Hurts wanted to distribute the ball when the Eagles were forced to air it out. His eyes were locked on Brown and Smith. The Rams seem frisky — or, frisky enough — to keep this one somewhat close, so the targets should be there for Smith. Expect him to garner six to nine more targets, getting us over the 4.5 reception mark to cash this one for us.
Best NFL Week 5 Player Prop Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions -139 at Caesars
Bengals-Cardinals Player Prop Bet | Week 5
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ari.
Who: James Conner at Bet365
There are only two things worse than Cincinnati’s rushing yards allowed per attempt average (5.1) in the NFL — one of them is the Broncos. Not that this needs to be said, but anytime you’re in the vicinity of the Broncos in any defense statistic in the year of our lord 2023 … it ain’t a good thing.
Cincinnati’s run defense has been gashed for 628 yards through 4 weeks — highlighted by Derrick Henry’s 122 yards a week ago. Now, I’m not saying James Conner is King Henry, so don’t put those words in my mouth. But, he could be made to look like King Henry in this matchup. I mean, the Bengals even let Gus Edwards run for 6.2 yards per carry this season (no shade intended, Gus Bus).
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Conner has quietly been one of the best runners in the NFL this season and is averaging the seventh most yards per carry (5.1) among running backs with 40 or more attempts. That list includes names like Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and D’Andre Swift. Conner is averaging 15.5 carries per game, so at his current per-carry average, this seems like a prime spot to attack his rushing yardage props. Getting this line at 58.5 at Bet365 for -110 feels like a gift from the betting gods. You can’t turn that down on a Sunday.
Best NFL Week 5 Player Prop Pick: James Conner Over 58.5 Rushing Yards -110 at Bet365
Chiefs-Vikings Player Prop Bet | Week 5
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Who: Patrick Mahomes at FanDuel
It’s sometimes as simple as backing the best player. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a two-interception game and barely squeaked together 200 passing yards. The New York Jets secondary is as talented as they come, but it’ll get much easier against a Minnesota Vikings defense with just three takeaways through four games.
Week 5’s Chiefs-Vikings game has the highest total on the slate for many reasons. One is that Mahomes and company are on one side of the ball. He has showcased his legs in each of the season’s first four games, but the books have adjusted. His rushing line of 23.5 yards on FanDuel is as high as we’ve seen it all season. So, naturally, we’ll pivot to his passing yards prop that he has hit in just one game this season.
The Vikings secondary features an aging Harrison Smith and free-agent acquisition Byron Murphy, who has allowed 18 receptions on the young season — the 12th-most amongst cornerbacks. The glaring holes are ones that Mahomes can expose while racking up the yards through the air. Bryce Young picked on the Minnesota defense last week, completing 25 of his 32 attempts for a rating of 93.2. We’re trusting that the Vikings can do their part on offense and put up points against a Chiefs defense that will have their biggest test to date.
Best Chiefs-Vikings Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 285.5 Passing Yards -114 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 5 now!
