We went 5-2 on early picks in Week 3 and 6-1 on them in Week 4. I’m looking to keep that momentum going in Week 5, and, fortunately for us, value abounds on this week’s NFL card. Let’s dive into my NFL Week 5 predictions so that we can talk about the best NFL picks for Bears-Commanders, Bills-Jaguars Cowboys-49ers and more NFL Week 5 action.
NFL Week 5 Predictions: Picks for Bears-Commanders, Bills-Jaguars, Cowboys-49ers & More
Bills-Jaguars NFL Week 5 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bills: -245 | Jaguars: +200
Bills -5.5: -110 | Jaguars +5.5: -110
Over 48.5: -110 | Under 48.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 9:30 a.m. ET
The Buffalo Bills will head across the pond to play the Jacksonville Jaguars in London this weekend. The Jaguars got a solid win over the Atlanta Falcons here last weekend, and they’ll benefit from not having to do any mid-week international travel. However, they’ll have to face the third-best offense and fourth-best defense by EPA allowed per play, which bodes poorly for their underperforming squad. Jacksonville owns the 24th-best offense and seventh-best defense by EPA, but they have only faced one opponent with a record above .500 this year: the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bills just dismantled the Miami Dolphins in Orchard Park last weekend. Buffalo held Miami’s league-leading offense to just 20 points, limiting the elite combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to seven catches for 104 yards and no scores. The Bills also scored 48 points of their own. While Jacksonville’s defense is much tougher than Miami’s, the Bills shouldn’t have much of a problem. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 23rd in pass-rush win rate (37%), which should afford Josh Allen plenty of time to find his receivers downfield — especially since Buffalo’s offensive line ranks eighth in pass-block win rate (62%).
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Buffalo’s defense will cause major problems for Jacksonville in London. The Jaguars have gotten away with terrible pass blocking so far — their offensive line ranks an atrocious 29th in pass-block win rate — because of their low-quality opponents. The Colts, Chiefs, Texans and Falcons. Trevor Lawrence has only faced pressure on 23.5% of his dropbacks. Buffalo’s defense ranks 14th in pressure percentage (23.7%) and third in pass-rush win rate (56%), making them the first team the Jaguars will face that’s performing above the league average in both metrics. Lawrence ranks 33rd in pressured completion percentage this year (27.8%) and ranked 14th (43.8%) last year.
The Bills should win this one by at least a touchdown, so I’m thrilled to get under both the key numbers of seven and six. Sure, traveling abroad may have serious consequences for their preparation, especially since head coach Sean McDermott hasn’t been at the helm for any London games thus far, but McDermott is 37-26-4 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite, winning games by an average margin of 9.9, and is 2-0 in neutral-site games. McDermott is also a league-best 38-27-5 ATS in non-division games, the best such record since 2017. I also recommend parlaying Buffalo’s moneyline with Baltimore’s as long as you’re getting odds better than +105 (48.8%).
Bills-Jaguars NFL Week 5 Pick & Prediction: Buffalo -5.5 -110 at Caesars
Ravens-Steelers NFL Week 5 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Ravens: -188 | Steelers: +158
Ravens -3.5: -114 | Steelers +3.5: -106
Over 38.5: -105 | Under 38.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
The Baltimore Ravens will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pennsylvania this weekend, and they’re 3.5-to-4-point favorites for the road matchup. Baltimore is 1-5 against Pittsburgh since 2020, with their lone victory coming by two points in Pittsburgh last year. Quarterback Lamar Jackson played in just two of those games. Even though Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has had the number of his Ravens counterpart, John Harbaugh, of late, I’m still fading the Steel Curtain against a new-look Ravens offense. Baltimore ranks 15th in EPA per play, which, while not great, is categorically better than 31st-ranked Pittsburgh.
The Steelers have some injury issues to worry about this weekend. Quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered a knee injury last week and is day-to-day. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is also dealing with an injury, as are left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard James Daniels. Thrusting the ball into the hands of a banged-up Pickett or Mitch Trubisky behind a depleted offensive line won’t go well, especially not against a Baltimore defense that ranks a steady 13th in pass-rush win rate (47%) and fourth in EPA allowed per dropback. Pickett ranks 42nd in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/CPOE composite score of the 64 quarterbacks to play at least 64 snaps. Trubisky ranks 28th. Both trail 13th-ranked Lamar Jackson by a significant margin.
The Pittsburgh offense is broken, and the defense doesn’t look all that great, either. Sure, edge rusher T.J. Watt is still elite, but the Steelers rank only 21st in pass-rush win rate as a team (41%). Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 14th in EPA allowed per play, 16th in EPA allowed per rush and 15th in EPA allowed per dropback. Their inefficient offense has allowed opposing teams to average the third-most plays per game (70.8) and third-highest time of possession (33:50), likely wearing out the defense and making their life more difficult.
There are a number of competing Ravens-Steelers betting trends to consider for this one. You’ll likely hear that the Steelers are an NFL-best 16-5-3 ATS as home underdogs since Mike Tomlin arrived in 2007 and that they’re a second-best 55-41-6 ATS in divisional games. However, the Ravens are also an NFL-best 76-53-8 ATS on the road since John Harbaugh arrived in 2008. Those trends don’t mean much to me. Pittsburgh is just 2-2-1 ATS as a home dog and 4-3 ATS in divisional games since Ben Roethlisberger retired. Meanwhile, Baltimore remains an NFL-best 9-3 ATS on the road since 2022, and they have gone 4-2 ATS as road favorites.
Ravens-Steelers NFL Week 5 Pick & Prediction: Baltimore -3.5 -110 at Caesars
Giants-Dolphins NFL Week 5 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Giants: +430 | Dolphins: -590
Giants +10.5: -110 | Dolphins -10.5: -110
Over 49.5: -115 | Under 49.5: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
The New York Giants just got embarrassed in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. They now get to face the Miami Dolphins with a one-day rest disadvantage. New York managed to put only three points on the board against Seattle, but the Giants were without both star running back Saquon Barkley and star left tackle Andrew Thomas. Barkley recorded a PFF grade of 77.2 last year. Thomas recorded an 89.1. It’s safe to say this offense is much better when those two are around, and both could make their return as soon as next week.
The Giants also draw a matchup with one of the NFL’s worst defenses. For as electric as the Dolphins look on offense, their defense has left much to be desired. Miami ranks 27th in EPA allowed per play, 30th in EPA allowed per rush and 21st in EPA allowed per dropback. The Giants have played just one below-average team in EPA allowed per play, the Arizona Cardinals, and they put up 31 points against them. New York may not have the most effective offense, but with their team total set to a pathetic 18.5, it’s time to buy low.
New York’s offensive struggles stem from an underperforming offensive line, but the matchup with Miami and the chance Thomas returns are both encouraging. New York ranks 22nd in pass-block win rate (51%) and 17th in run-block win rate (71%). Miami ranks 10th in pass-rush win rate (49%) but only 22nd in pressure percentage (21.2%), and their best pass rusher, Jaelan Phillips, is dealing with an injury. They also rank only 29th in run-stop win rate (28%), which could create some openings for Barkley to exploit — if he returns.
Again, the 18.5 is just too low for any of Miami’s opponents. The Dolphins rank 28th in points allowed per game (29.8) and ranked 23rd last year (24.1). The Dolphins have gone 3-1 to the over so far this season, with only their road game against the Patriots failing to surpass the closing number. Miami is 12-10 to the over since head coach Mike McDaniel’s arrival. New York is 13-9-1 to the under since head coach Brian Daboll took over last season, but the Giants have rarely had to surpass a number this low. Everyone is eager to fade the Giants after they imploded in primetime, but it’s much sharper to anticipate a bounce-back showing — at least in the scoring department.
Giants-Dolphins NFL Week 5 Pick & Prediction: New York Team Total Over 18.5 -112 at DraftKings
Jets-Broncos NFL Week 5 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Jets: +108 | Broncos: -126
Jets +2.5: -115 | Broncos -2.5: -105
Over 43.5: -110 | Under 43.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The New York Jets will visit the Denver Broncos next week, and for the third time this season, we’re getting action on the team total for Denver’s opponents. Denver is 3-1 to the over this year, but their opponents are averaging an NFL-high 37.5 points per game. While the 70-point performance from the Miami Dolphins partially explains why that number is so high, the Broncos also coughed up 28 to the Bears and 35 to the Commanders. Only the Las Vegas Raiders failed to clear 28. With New York’s team total trading at only 20.5 in some spots, I’m locking in the over before that number ticks up.
Denver’s defense is jaw-droppingly bad. The Broncos and 32nd in EPA allowed per play, 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback. Injuries may explain some of their struggles, as safety Justin Simmons, edge rusher Frank Clark and inside linebacker Josey Jewell have all missed time, but it’s unclear how close those three even are to returning. Denver is also bailing out its opponents with penalties — the Broncos rank 30th in penalties per game (8.3). Denver has also failed to control the clock effectively, as the Broncos have allowed their opponents to average the 23rd-most plays per game (65.5) and the eighth-highest time of possession (32:11).
New York’s offense isn’t efficient, but Zach Wilson deserves some credit for looking better than expected on Sunday Night Football. The Jets lost, but it wasn’t his fault, and he even ranked as the 17th-best quarterback in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/CPOE composite score. I’m not adjusting my Wilson priors after one good game, but, when you consider he was supposed to back up Aaron Rodgers in a new-look offense designed by new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, his abysmal performance to this point is slightly more forgivable. Further, buying the over for New York’s team total doesn’t mean we’re putting our faith in Wilson to actually win — we just need him to beat up on the NFL’s worst defense.
I’m also justifying my exposure to New York’s team total because of the Denver defense’s complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Denver ranks 32nd in both pass-rush win rate (30%) and pressure percentage (14%). The terrible Jets offensive line has allowed Wilson to face pressure 34.3% of the time because it ranks just 27th in pass-block win rate (47%), so this weekend’s matchup is a welcome reprieve. Wilson isn’t a great quarterback, but his clean pocket completion percentage this year (58.2%) is dramatically better than his pressured completion percentage (29.4%), and the total is low enough for me to plug my nose and trust him.
Jets-Broncos NFL Week 5 Pick & Prediction: New York Team Total Over 20.5 -110 at DraftKings
Cowboys-49ers NFL Week 5 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Cowboys: +158 | 49ers: -188
Cowboys +3.5: -110 | 49ers -3.5: -110
Over 45: -110 | Under 45: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET
The Dallas Cowboys will face off with the San Francisco 49ers in an actually good edition of Sunday Night Football. The 49ers are 3.5-point home favorites for the matchup. These teams are two of the NFL’s best, per the advanced metrics — San Francisco is 1.8 standard deviations above the NFL average in my EPA-based power rating, while Dallas is 1.7 standard deviations above it, so I’m not eager to get action on the side for this one. Instead, I’m really interested in the total, which I think is a few points too high.
The total for Sunday’s game sits at a lofty 45. These teams combined for only 31 when they met in the playoffs last year, and 10 of those points were garbage-time scores by Dallas. The Cowboys held the 49ers to five yards per play, below both their 2022 average (5.9) and their current average (6.3), while the 49ers held Dallas to 4.7 yards per play, below both their 2022 average (5.4) and their current average (5.1). This year, they’re both fielding good defenses: through four weeks, Dallas ranks second in EPA allowed per play, while San Francisco ranks ninth.
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Both Dallas and San Francisco have limited opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys lead the NFL in EPA allowed per dropback and pass-rush win rate (61%). The 49ers rank sixth in EPA allowed per dropback and ninth in pass-rush win rate (50%). The two defenses have been more beatable on the ground — Dallas ranks sixth in EPA allowed per rush, while San Francisco ranks 28th; their defenses rank 15th and 16th in run-stop win rate, respectively. Both Dallas and San Francisco rank top five in rushing play percentage, so I expect the ball to stay on the ground come Sunday night.
Because the Cowboys and 49ers have run the ball so much, they rank among the league’s slowest teams. San Francisco ranks 31st in seconds per play (31.7) while Dallas ranks 26th (29.5). They are also both in the top six for average time of possession, with Dallas in second (34:37) and San Francisco in sixth (33:09). Whichever team gets out to an early lead will try to wind the clock, and the opposing offense will likely need to rely on the run to move the ball, which will keep the clock moving. Jump in before the total ticks any lower
Cowboys-49ers NFL Week 5 Pick & Prediction: Under 45 -110 at BetMGM
Packers-Raiders NFL Week 5 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Packers: -130 | Raiders: +110
Packers -1.5: -115 | Raiders +1.5: -105
Over 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Monday, Oct. 9 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The week of football action will come to a not-so-thrilling conclusion on Monday night. The Green Bay Packers will visit the Las Vegas Raiders. They are currently a 1.5-point road favorite, but that number could increase if any more concerning news comes out of Vegas this week. Head coach Josh McDaniels may be losing the locker room — or at least losing some of his veteran players — who are getting tired of playing for a bad coach on a poorly constructed roster. We’re fading the Raiders in this spot, and I recommend getting your action down sooner rather than later.
Not much has gone right in Sin City this season. The Raiders rank 20th in EPA per play and 30th in EPA allowed per play. They are a full standard deviation below the league average in my EPA-based power ratings. In contrast, things have gone surprisingly well in Green Bay despite all the injuries — the Packers rank 12th in EPA per play and 18th in EPA allowed per play. They are right at the league average in my EPA power ratings and should only improve from here as players like Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and Elgton Jenkins get healthy.
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The Packers will benefit from a few days of extra rest for this one. They may have gotten beat up by the Lions last Thursday, but head coach Matt LaFleur has gone 12-7 ATS with a rest advantage since taking over in Green Bay in 2019. Meanwhile, Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels is just 3-6 ATS with a rest advantage when we count his time in Denver. The extra rest will help guys like Jones and Watson get back to 100%. Jenkins also returned to practice this week, along with PUP-list cornerback Eric Stokes. Tight end Luke Musgrave, who suffered a concussion last Thursday, was seen practicing on Tuesday as well.
Instead of backing the Packers to cover the 1.5-point spread, I’m just buying them to win Week 5’s edition of Monday Night Football outright. The Raiders have shown little fight this year, and their poor rankings in most advanced metrics bodes poorly for this one. Although Jordan Love cracked when pressured heavily by the Lions in Week 4, getting Jenkins back will help keep the pocket intact longer, and the Raiders rank only 24th in pass-rush win rate. Trust Love and company to get the job done come Monday.
Packers-Raiders NFL Week 5 Pick & Prediction: Green Bay ML -130 at FanDuel
Bears-Commanders NFL Week 5 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bears: +225 | Commanders: -275
Bears +6: -110 | Commanders -6: -110
Over 44.5: -105 | Under 44.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 5 at 8:15 p.m. ET
When will the Chicago Bears end their losing skid? The team hasn’t won a regular-season game since last October’s victory over the New England Patriots. The sportsbooks don’t expect much out of Chicago on Thursday — the Bears are 6.5-point road underdogs — so it’s safe to expect their losing streak to continue. Nothing has gone well for the Bears this year, and it shows up in the advanced stats: Chicago ranks 23rd in expected points added (EPA) per play and 31st in EPA allowed per play. They rank 1.7 standard deviations below the league average in my EPA-based power rating.
Although the Commanders aren’t a great football team, they’re more than good enough to feast against this Bears defense. Chicago coughed up 38 points to the Packers, 27 to the Buccaneers, 41 to the Chiefs and 31 to the Broncos, yet the Commanders’ team total sits at only 25.5 on DraftKings. Are the Commanders that much worse than the rest of the Bears’ opponents? No, especially not when you consider how these teams match up — Chicago allows the second-most EPA per dropback of any defense, and Washington attempts to pass at the fourth-highest rate of any offense.
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Let’s get some action on the over for Washington’s team total. We’re trusting Sam Howell and a passing offense that ranks only 21st in EPA per dropback, but that hasn’t kept them from averaging the 17th-most points per game (22.3). That average is all the more impressive when you remember they were held to just three points against the Bills. Buffalo showed that the way to limit Washington’s scoring was an effective pass rush, but Chicago ranks a bad 20th in pass-rush win rate (42%), which partially explains why the club ranks 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.4).
We’ve also getting exposure to an over because this is a Thursday night game. Both defenses are working on short rest, which will limit their ability to keep the other side from scoring. Chicago is already 4-0 to the over this year and is 14-7 to the over under head coach Matt Eberfus. They may have held the Commanders to 12 points in a Thursday night game last year, but Washington was starting Carson Wentz, and the Bears got a 12-tackle, one-sack performance from Roquan Smith. This year’s Commanders should easily hang at least 26 points on this year’s Bears.
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