Welcome to week 6! As it remains important to pick the right side with these confidence pools, now begins the time of adding an element of strategy – namely placing underdogs higher on the list. There are some ugly games on paper and a couple of strong teams facing letdown spots. As brutal as it’s been for a couple of teams – redemption could be on the way, while one team still can’t get out of its own way. All this and more in our NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool picks post!
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-535) vs Denver Broncos
The Chiefs could start Taylor Swift at Tight End and still win this game – probably cover the spread too. Travis Kelce or not, Denver is in no position to take advantage of any breaks that come their way. The team is horribly coached, and Russell Wilson looks out of place – at times it seems by design.
It’s hard to tell at this point if Sean Payton is actively sabotaging this football team with some of the offensive gameplans. Andy Reid already suffered his disappointing loss in the first half of the season. Short week or not, this one ends ugly for Denver.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Buffalo Bills (-835) vs New York Giants
The New York Giants are the lone team remaining in the NFL yet to take a snap on offense with the lead. The New York Jets were the other team before snapping that skid with a win this past weekend. What exactly have the New York Giants done to instill confidence they can beat a college football team, let alone a Bills team hungry after losing in London.
Down Tre’Deveous White and maybe Von Miller isn’t enough to scare anyone into taking the Giants.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Los Angeles Rams (-278) vs Arizona Cardinals
Look, there is going to be an upset across the NFL – possibly two – so some strategy is moving up a game expected to be closer, or a division game like this one. While Arizona has certainly looked better, especially on offense, things might take a sharp dip.
They already looked lost after losing James Connor to a knee injury, and now with a Rams team coming off a bad loss, this could be a major issue for the Cards. Cooper Kupp is back and looked totally fine on the field. Another big problem for a struggling Arizona defense.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Miami Dolphins (-800) vs Carolina Panthers
The Dolphins are not in upset territory, but this is a large spread for a Panthers defense playing better than last week’s performance. The problem has always been Bryce Young keeping up with opposing offenses. This happens to be one of the best in the NFL, so Bryce vs. Tua should go about as expected.
The one area of concern would be simple regression taking on an opponent so much worse than Miami. The same can be said for the next game, but these two favorites will ultimately prevail winners. Take Miami at home against this pitiful Panthers team.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Las Vegas Raiders (-155) vs New England Patriots
It’s simply impossible to trust the Patriots and Bill Belichik right now to do anything other than lose a football game. The offense is a chore to watch, and their defense is too banged up to matter. All the trends and recent history of the Hoody vs former assistants, anything at all like that, just throw it out the window.
The Patriots are in such a bad spot right now they make the Raiders look like a competent organization. Vegas is bound to make some mistakes, but their QB is healthy, and they come off a tough win with some momentum.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (-285) vs New York Jets
The Eagles are bound to lose a game, in rather ugly fashion, but it won’t happen this week against the Jets. The better of the green teams keeps finding ways to win games as Jalen Hurts or the defense take turns in paying the bail. The Jets needed a huge performance out of Zach Wilson against what may be the worst offense in football.
There is concern the Eagles might simply sleepwalk through most of this game, which would allow the Jets to stay in some reach, but it will never be in question. This would be the biggest upset of the week based on matchups, especially the Eagles pass rush vs Wilson.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: New Orleans Saints (-122) at Houston Texans***
The first posted upset of the week comes in Houston as the Saints find themselves in a terrible spot. Mainly their head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr. Neither are anywhere near .500 as favorites, and are worse on the road while laying points. The Texans lost a close one last week to the Falcons as it was the Houston defense that let up late.
New Orleans exploded against a lifeless Patriots team and will look far worse on offense this week. CJ Stroud continues to amaze despite injuries in front of him, so don’t expect the Saints – as good as they can be on defense – to slow down Stroud.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Minnesota Vikings (-136) at Chicago Bears
People will look to short the Vikings because of the Justin Jefferson injury but that’s not being honest to this week’s opponent. The Chicago Bears are part of the disaster crew, one of the worst teams in the NFL despite getting their first win of the season last week.
The reality is their opponent was in prime position to go down – Washington coming off their biggest game of the year and on a short week – which won’t happen against the Vikings. Minnesota still has the better QB/Head Coach combo and have seen the Bears give up 35 more total points across the same number of games. It’s the Vikings, even though it may not look too pretty.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Detroit Lions (-160) at Tampa Bay Bucs
The Lions destroyed the Panthers this past week as Tampa took off for 11 days. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense has played admirably well this year, enough to put some points up on a banged-up Lions defense. Detroit’s offense looked effortless at times against Carolina, but they face a much tougher task – especially on the ground.
A couple of injuries on offense – St. Brown and Gibbs – could impact how much they play, but the real issue is the interior offensive line. The Bucs are a tough out on defense and Mayfield is protecting the ball for the most part. Everyone is riding Detroit from their major performance last week, but this has upset printed on the ticket.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-225) at Cleveland Browns
Dropping this game mainly because of the travel involved and weather. It’s supposed to be nasty in Cleveland and whether Deshaun Watson starts doesn’t truly matter. While Cleveland may look better with Watson on paper, he hasn’t played well enough to warrant any significant drop with the spread/line.
Cleveland’s defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has his unit playing much better at home, and the Niners hit the road after walloping the Cowboys at home. It’s a major letdown moment and nobody will fault you for not giving Brock Purdy the benefit of the doubt. Cleveland will be super prepared on defense and give the Niners everything they can handle on offense.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Atlanta Falcons (-134) vs Washington Commanders***
Washington follows up their embarrassing loss to the Bears with a road trip to Atlanta. Desmond Ridder comes off his first 300-yard game as a passer and continues to be perfect at home. The problem is just how much will Washington bounce back. They just experienced a massive letdown against the Bears and are still talented enough to bounce back.
Washington is better coached on both sides of the ball and has the better thrower at QB. They have weapons in the pass game they actually use and are healthy on that defensive line. It’s not going to be easy for Atlanta to run the ball which hurts their chances in any game. Either way the game gets dropped on the list, but this one is an upset.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Dallas Cowboys (-126) at Los Angeles Chargers
Is it too obvious to just pound the Cowboys here? Dallas comes off one of their worst regular season losses since Dak Prescott took over as QB and they face a Chargers defense that’s non-existent at times. If there was ever a game and defensive opponent for an offense to bounce back, it would be this game and this Chargers team.
The only issue for Dallas is just how much – and how fast – the Chargers can get down the field. If It’s a shootout then Dallas still has the edge, only in that their defense will eventually make a stop. The same simply can’t be said for the Chargers, not under this coaching regime.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (-148) vs Seattle Seahawks***
The Bengals won a game, Joe Burrow threw the ball, and Ja’marr Chase caught everything. This line opened at 3 and has since been bet through the biggest key number in football. Despite the Bengals finally looking like the Bengals, Burrow looking as healthy as he’s been, enough sharp money still came in on Seattle to push this through 3.
That’s not to be overlooked here as Seattle has won three straight and is keeping pace with the Niners. They are still one of only six teams in the conference to not allow 100 total points or more this year and have won both of their road games. It didn’t make the final cut, but this was the second favorite choice for the NFL Upset of the Week column!
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars (-200) vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is a division game for the Jags as they return from a two week winning trip in London. The Colts are down their rookie QB in Anthony Richardson but have one of the most capable backups in Gardner Minshew. Indy’s defense is fine in this matchup, good enough to limit some things Jacksonville will want to do on the ground.
At some point, the Colts offense is going to have to take some shots and try to soften this Jaguars pass defense. Jonathan Taylor should see more action too, especially in the pass game as Minshew needs help. It’s a close call and the money line doesn’t accurately reflect how close this game should be. Best to leave it at the bottom of your list no matter who wins.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-186) at Tennessee Titans***
I hate London games. The city is beautiful, the culture is layered, even the food is underrated. The problem lies in betting these games because the variables are too far out of the norm. A team bouncing back from a loss or in a spot as a dog, none of that matters with the venue shifting to England.
Technically Mike Vrabel is a home dog against a team and QB he’s had success against, especially in the playoffs. Baltimore’s loss to Pittsburgh was totally avoidable, but they don’t get the benefit of returning home to take on a non-divison opponent. If the Titans can outrush the Ravens by 30+ yards then they win the game outright, it’s worth a shot under these circumstances.
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