The NFL rolls on with an action-packed Week 6 slate. The afternoon card could be better, but it’s still better than what Sunday Night Football has to offer. Giants-Bills? Gross. Our staff has identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 6, including Bijan Robinson, for Commanders-Falcons, Eagles-Jets, Vikings-Bears and more Week 6 action.
NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Bijan Robinson, Tua Tagovailoa & More
Commanders-Falcons Player Prop Bet | Week 6
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Who: Bijan Robinson at Caesars
The Washington Commanders will visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, and I want action on star running back Bijan Robinson. Both teams have looked shaky and are a combined 5-5. The Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites for the matchup, so if everything goes according to plan, you can expect plenty of rushing attempts from them on Sunday. The Falcons rank seventh in rushing-play percentage (46.3%) but jump to fourth when we isolate stats teams have recorded on their home fields (53.5%). Let’s trust Robinson to do his job on the ground in Week 6.
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Robinson, a first-round draft selection this year, has excelled in his debut season. He is averaging 72.8 rushing yards per game with two 100-plus yard performances on the ground. He is also averaging exactly 102 all-purpose yards per game. Robinson draws a matchup with a Washington Commanders defense that ranks 17th in total yards allowed to running backs (433) but 26th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8) and 31st in run-stop win rate (27%). The Commanders haven’t faced a running back of Robinson’s caliber thus far.
The books are taking action on Robinson’s rushing yardage at 68.5 or 69.5, but we’re teasing this up to 75 at Caesars. BetMGM is charging -125 for Robinson to get 75-plus yards, but we’ll find this one priced all the way up at +111 on Caesars. Although Robinson has cleared that threshold just twice in his short career, he is yet to face a defense that has struggled as much as Washington’s in the trenches. The rising star could cash the over with just a few breakaway runs. If James Cook can put up 98 rushing yards on 15 carries and Khalil Herbert can get 76 on 10, Robinson has better than coin-flip odds of recording at least 75 on Sunday.
Best NFL Week 6 Player Prop Pick: Bijan Robinson 75+ Rushing Yards +111 at Caesars
Vikings-Bears Player Prop Bet | Week 6
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago
Who: D.J. Moore at Bet365
It took a few weeks for the dreadful Chicago Bears to figure out exactly what the hell they were doing with wide receiver D.J. Moore, but they seemed to have figured it out in the last two weeks. Moore has been a target hog in Weeks 4 and 5, getting 19 combined looks from Justin Fields in those games. After his eruption game against Washington, Moore is averaging 106 receiving yards per game. I can already hear you goblins saying, “Well, his averages are messed up after a 230-yard game.” Yeah, well, how about we remove his absolute cucking of the Commanders and see what we’re left with?
Surprise, surprise — in the four games NOT against the Commanders, Moore is still averaging 75.3 receiving yards per game, which, by my calculations, is greater than 60.5. Throw in the fact that the Bears get to face this abysmal Vikings defense this week — at home, no less — and we’re primed to take this over. If you need a little more convincing, the Vikings have allowed 1,200 passing yards this season (ninth-most in the NFL) and an astounding 76% completion rate.
Moore has basically gone #ToTheMoon since all the Bears drama happened a few weeks back. And like I said earlier, we’re going to milk it for all it’s worth. How are we attacking the books with D.J. Moore this weekend? I bought the over for the absurd line of 57.5 receiving yards I found at Bet365 for -110. I got on this one early thanks to OddsShopper’s tools, but the number has since ticked up to 60.5, which they’re still charging -110 for. As a heads up, every other book has a much steeper price. Make yourself some extra money by firing this NFL player prop pick at Bet365.
Best NFL Week 6 Player Prop Pick: D.J. Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards -110 at Bet365
Panthers-Dolphins Player Prop Bet | Week 6
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Who: Tua Tagovailoa at Bet365
The Miami Dolphins are a 14-point favorite over the Carolina Panthers this weekend, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to jump on the overs for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Opposing teams are beating the Panthers on the ground, not through the air. Carolina leads the NFL in opponent rushing play percentage (48.8%) and ranks 29th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.9). This corresponds to a meaningful decrease in passing production: the Panthers rank fifth-best in passing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks (204.4). No quarterback has thrown for more than 300 yards against them, and only one, Geno Smith, cleared the 275-yard mark.
With Tagovailoa’s passing yardage prop trading at 274.5 across the market, the under stands out as a sharp bet. Tagovailoa has gone over that number in four of his five starts this season, but he has done so in only 16 of his 39 career starts, or 41%. Of course, it’s true that the Dolphins are more efficient under new head coach Mike McDaniel, but it’s not like McDaniel’s scheme is pass-dependent — the Dolphins actually rank just 20th in passing play percentage (56.3%). Tagovailoa may lead the NFL in passing yards (1,614) and yards per attempt (9.7), but he ranks just 12th in passing attempts (166) and is attempting just 33.2 passes per game. OddsShopper’s model agrees with me on this one:
I don’t mean to imply that the Carolina defense is all that great against the pass. It’s not. The Panthers rank 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7) and 12th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. The defensive front also ranks 12th in pass-rush win rate (47%). However, it’s worth noting that several pieces of the Carolina defense are banged up — pass rusher Brian Burns is questionable but is trending in the right direction after practicing in full on Friday. Safeties Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods are both out, but Jeremy Chinn should step up in their absence. Although Miami lost De’Von Achane, the combination of Raheem Mostert, Jeffrey Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed should be enough for the Dolphins to move the ball without relying on Tagovailoa.
Best NFL Week 6 Player Prop Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 274.5 Passing Yards -110 at Bet365
Eagles-Jets Player Prop Bet | Week 6
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Who: D’Andre Swift at FanDuel
There are two things that came to mind when I saw this D’Andre Swift player prop. The Eagles have made Swift look like one of the best running backs in football this season, and the Jets have made running backs look like Jerry Rice catching the ball out of the backfield. Both are good things for us. FanDuel set the total for Swift’s receptions at 2.5 for odds of +106, which I think we should really get after in Week 6.
We’ve seen Swift’s targets rise consistently over the last three weeks. He had two in Week 3, four in Week 4 and six in Week 5, which shows you the Eagles are starting to understand his pass-catching prowess more and more. Throughout his career, he has been a more than capable pass-catcher, averaging just a shade under four receptions per game with the Lions (3.9 to be exact). Swift has caught all 10 balls thrown his way in the last two games, and he should see some looks this week against the Jets.
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The Jets have allowed the third-most targets per game to running backs this season at 8.2. They have also allowed the fifth-most receptions per game to the position (6.2). With Sauce Gardner roaming around in the secondary trying to mitigate one of DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown, it only makes sense for Jalen Hurts to look for Swift a few times this game.
There’s a high probability that Swift will catch at least one or two screen passes, and he could see another two to three targets as a safety valve if the coverage is good in the secondary. Give me the sure-handed Swift to cash a plus-money ticket for us in Week 6.
Best NFL Week 6 Player Prop Pick: D’Andre Swift Over 2.5 Receptions +106 at FanDuel
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