After going 5-2 on early picks in Week 3 and 6-1 on them in Week 4, we fell back to Earth — hard — in Week 5. We went an absolutely embarrassing 1-6. I’m eager for the opportunity to bounce back, and, fortunately, there are plenty of high-value spots to exploit on this card. Let’s dive into my NFL Week 6 predictions so that we can talk about the best NFL picks for Ravens-Titans, Giants-Bills, Cowboys-Chargers and more NFL Week 6 action. For more picks, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s shop pages.
NFL Week 6 Predictions: Picks for Ravens-Titans, Giants-Bills, Cowboys-Chargers & More
Ravens-Titans NFL Week 6 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Ravens: -200 | Titans: +170
Ravens -4: -110 | Titans +4: -110
Over 41: -110 | Under 41: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 9:30 a.m. ET
For updated Ravens-Titans odds and picks, click here!
The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will do battle across the pond from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday morning. Both teams are coming off bitter divisional losses. The Titans had a chance to get a go-ahead touchdown against the Colts but failed to convert on fourth and short with Derrick Henry. The Ravens were beating the Steelers despite numerous offensive blunders until late in the fourth quarter, at which point Kenny Pickett threw a long go-ahead touchdown pass to George Pickens — and Lamar Jackson fumbled on a potential comeback drive to seal the defeat.
The Ravens may have dropped the ball by losing in Week 5 — Lord knows that their receivers did — but they’re still the far better team. Unlike last week, neither side in the London matchup will have spent the prior week across the pond. Both teams are making the trip after road games. The Ravens outrank the Titans in almost every EPA-based metric: Baltimore is sixth in EPA per rush, 24th in EPA per dropback, sixth in EPA allowed per rush and second in EPA allowed per dropback; Tennessee is 15th in EPA per rush, 15th in EPA per dropback, 11th in EPA allowed per rush and 27th in EPA allowed per dropback.
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Tennessee’s struggles against the pass make this a fantastic get-right spot for a talented but underperforming cast of receivers in Baltimore. The Titans have coughed up the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts (984) and the ninth-most passing yards to quarterbacks (1,317). The Titans have struggled to stop the pass despite ranking seventh in pass-rush win rate (52%), which falls on the secondary — starting cornerback Kristian Fulton owns a disastrous PFF grade of 43.6 due to surrendering 12.7 yards per target and a passer rating of 118.7. He starts opposite Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has coughed up 8.8 yards per target and a passer rating of 117.9.
Baltimore’s passing offense may be inefficient, but it is loaded with potential, and that will be on full display in London on Sunday. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken was brought in to rejuvenate the passing offense, so the fact Baltimore owns a higher rushing play percentage through Week 5 than it did through all of last season speaks to some growing pains. But with the line they’re hanging this week, the books are asking us whether the Ravens are a 4-point better team than the Titans, and, given their untapped potential and the defense’s comparative advantage over Tennessee, I’m willing to buy Baltimore to cover against a bad secondary.
Ravens-Titans NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: Ravens -4 -110 at Bet365
49ers-Browns NFL Week 6 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
49ers: -245 | Browns: +205
49ers -5.5: -110 | Browns +5.5: -110
Over 37.5: -110 | Under 37.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
For updated 49ers-Browns odds and picks, click here!
After last week’s beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys, what does quarterback Brock Purdy have left to prove? Even after the brutal loss, the Dallas defense still ranks fourth in EPA allowed per dropback and first in pass-rush win rate (60%). Purdy now gets another tough defense, and he’ll have to play this one on the road, but I’m willing to trust him to cover. The Browns may rank third in EPA allowed per rush and first in EPA allowed per dropback, but their impotent offense will make it incredibly difficult for them to keep this close. Cleveland ranks a dreadful 24th in EPA per rush and 30th in EPA per dropback. Some of that underperformance falls on a bad start for backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but Deshaun Watson only ranks 23rd in adjusted EPA per dropback. Purdy ranks first.
The spread for Sunday’s game is wide, to be sure — the 49ers are trading as a 5.5-point favorite. It’s worth asking if that’s a wide enough margin. The 49ers rank 10th in EPA per rush, first in EPA per dropback, 19th in EPA allowed per rush and third in EPA allowed per dropback. They have won each of their five games by at least seven points. San Francisco’s defensive front also ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate (51%) and 13th in run-stop win rate (32%). Cleveland’s offensive line may lead the NFL in pass-block win rate (70%), but the unit ranks 24th in run-block win rate (69%). Because the Browns have struggled to set up runs, largely relying on the talent of their backs, they are poorly positioned to capitalize on San Francisco’s primary defensive vulnerability.
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Bettors thinking about putting their action down on this game early must also consider whether Deshaun Watson is even playing. He was supposed to suit up against the Ravens in Week 4, but news that he would sit broke late — and the betting market that had favored the Browns all week quickly swung in the Ravens’ favor, and correctly. Watson is dealing with a rotator cuff injury in his throwing shoulder and is day-to-day. Head coach Kevin Stefanski called him “day-to-day.” If Watson sits, it’s up to either rookie Thompson-Robinson or P.J. Walker to take the reins, neither of whom is at all well-equipped to face the 49ers defense.
The vagueness surrounding Watson’s injury is strange, and it’s difficult to project whether or not he’ll play in Week 6. However, considering I would favor the 49ers by a full touchdown for Sunday’s 49ers-Browns game even if he did play, buying San Francisco as a 5.5-point favorite now is a sharp early play. It helps that Stefanski is an NFL-worst 1-8 ATS with a rest advantage and 0-3 ATS when coming off a bye. This number will only move in San Francisco’s favor if any more bad news about Watson reaches the public. Get in under the key number of six while you still can.
49ers-Browns NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: San Francisco -5.5 -108 at DraftKings
Colts-Jaguars NFL Week 6 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Colts: +175 | Jaguars: -210
Colts +4.5: -110 | Jaguars -4.5: -110
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
For updated Colts-Jaguars odds and picks, click here!
After the Indianapolis Colts drafted Anthony Richardson, I was pretty excited about the prospect of watching Gardner Minshew II and Jonathan Taylor work together for the early part of this season. But then Taylor held out and Richardson won the starting job, so I didn’t get to see what I had hoped for. That all changed last week, as Taylor finally ended his holdout, and Richardson went down with an injury against the Titans. The Colts will now visit the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are just getting back from a two-week stay in London, and I expect plenty of scoring in this one.
With or without Richardson, the Colts have an exciting offense. Minshew helps get the most out of wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs’ route-running savvy, and, while he lacks Richardson’s mobility, he more than makes up for it in accuracy and veteran decision-making. Minshew is 30-for-37 (81%) as a passer through two relief appearances this year. He has yet to commit a turnover or take a sack. He has led 10 drives for the Colts this season. Three of those ended in touchdowns, three ended in field goals, three ended in punts and one ended with a turnover-on-downs in the red zone.
The Colts draw the Jaguars on Sunday, and, after an inefficient start to the season, Jacksonville finally found its footing in London. In Weeks 4 and 5, Jacksonville’s offense ranked eighth in EPA per play, 20th in EPA per rush and seventh in EPA per dropback. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranked fifth in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/CPOE composite score through that span as well. That’s far more in line with what we saw out of the Jaguars and Lawrence last season. Although wide receiver Zay Jones is day-to-day with a knee injury, Lawrence will still have Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne at his disposal, which could prove lethal.
The Colts and Jaguars combined to score a whopping 52 points in Week 1, but the total for their Week 6 rematch sits at only 45.5. Although their defenses will have plenty of film to assess, that won’t help the Jaguars much, as Richardson is sidelined. Jacksonville ranks a solid fourth in EPA allowed per rush attempt but is only 14th in EPA allowed per dropback, which could prove problematic against a more traditional pocket passer like Minshew. Indianapolis’ defense ranks 12th in EPA allowed per rush but only 18th in EPA allowed per dropback. The last two meetings between these teams produced more than 47 points, and I expect that streak to continue this Sunday.
Colts-Jaguars NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: Over 45.5 -110 at Bet365
Eagles-Jets NFL Week 6 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Eagles: -245 | Jets: +245
Eagles -7: -110 | Jets +7: -110
Over 41.5: -110 | Under 41.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 4:25 p.m. ET
For updated Eagles-Jets odds and picks, click here!
Sunday’s Eagles-Jets game could get messy. The New York Jets just hung 31 points on the Denver Broncos, but they entered that contest averaging only 15.5 points per game, and their offense ranks near the bottom in most advanced metrics. On the other side, the Eagles boast a well-above-average offense but have underperformed relative to expectations on defense. However, they have made up for their defensive inefficiency by controlling the clock — the Eagles lead the NFL in plays per game (71.8) and rank 10th in plays allowed per game (61.2). Last week’s game against the Rams saw them embark on multiple drives of five-plus minutes, which, when combined with their red-zone inefficiency, depressed scoring substantially.
The Eagles should stymie a bad Jets offense on Sunday. New York ranks 18th in EPA per rush and 29th in EPA per dropback, but the offensive line took another big hit with guard Alijah-Vera Tucker now out for the year, which bodes poorly for a unit that already ranked 27th in pass-block win rate (48%) and 13th in run-block win rate (72%). The Jets are not prepared to deal with a Philadelphia defensive line that ranks sixth in pass-rush win rate (54%) and second in run-stop win rate (37%). Quarterback Zach Wilson has completed 42.9% of his throws under pressure this year but completed only 20.4% last year, so expect plenty of New York’s drives to stall out.
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But even though the Jets will struggle on offense, their defense should at least cause some problems for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. New York ranks fifth in EPA allowed per rush and 14th in EPA allowed per dropback. The relatively solid defensive front ranks 14th in pass-rush win rate and 16th in run-stop win rate. More importantly, New York’s defense ranks third in red-zone touchdown rate (31.3%), which bodes poorly for a Philadelphia offense that ranks 27th in red-zone touchdown rate (42.1%). Even if the Eagles can drive downfield with ease — or force turnovers from Wilson to set them up in good situations — they’re unlikely to cash in for touchdowns.
We’re playing the under for this one down to the key number of 41. I struggle to see how this game goes over that number barring multiple defensive scores. The Jets will struggle to move the ball much against the Eagles, just as they struggled against the Cowboys, Patriots and Bills. New York was averaging just 12 points per game before Week 4. Meanwhile, the Eagles will likely employ a game plan similar to the one they used last week, which saw them drain the clock on multiple lengthy drives, most of which ended in field goals due to their inefficient red-zone offense. I’m still a believer in this Eagles offense, but the matchup with the Jets isn’t exactly a get-right spot.
Eagles-Jets NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: Under 42 -115 at FanDuel
Giants-Bills NFL Week 6 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Giants: +575 | Bills: -850
Giants +14: -110 | Bills -14: -110
Over 45: -110 | Under 45: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 8:20 p.m. ET
For updated Giants-Bills odds and picks, click here!
NFL fans, rejoice! The New York Giants will make their fourth primetime appearance this weekend. They have just one more left on the schedule, a Thursday Night Football contest against the Green Bay Packers, so we’re almost done with watching the Giants flounder in primetime spots. New York has totaled a hilarious 15 points and one touchdown in primetime this year. With starting quarterback Daniel Jones questionable at best with a neck injury, it’s possible that the Giants have to roll with backup Tyrod Taylor. But regardless of who they start, no player should be throwing or running from behind this offensive line.
New York’s blockers are laughably bad. The Giants had to play without starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and center John-Michael Schmitz last week, and, unsurprisingly, it went terribly. Jones took six sacks, while Taylor took one more. The offensive line now ranks 28th in pass-block win rate (46%) and 17th in run-block win rate (71%), although those numbers don’t fully capture how awful this unit is without Thomas, who missed all of last week’s practices and is highly questionable for Sunday Night Football. To illustrate the severity of the situation, New York’s highest-graded starter along the offensive line in Week 5, guard Mark Glowinski, owns a 51.1. The rest of the starters own grades below 40. Right tackle Evan Neal owns a 36.1.
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It goes without saying that you cannot move the football without an offensive line. Last week’s game against the Miami Dolphins still saw the Giants score 16 points, but seven of them came from a pick-six. The Giants averaged 3.9 yards per play for a total of 268 despite possessing the ball for nearly 36 minutes. They’ll now have to line up against a Bills defense that ranks second in pass rush win rate (58%) and ninth in run-stop win rate (33%). Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Giants are two-touchdown underdogs for Sunday Night Football, but even that might be giving them too much credit. They own a team total of 15.5 points, but they have reached that threshold just once all season. Although the Giants are averaging 15.5 points per game, their median point total is 12.
It will probably take another defensive score for the Giants to surpass their team total of 15.5. I’m not sure how Jones or Taylor will move the football against this defense, which, despite suffering serious injuries in recent weeks, still features two elite edge rushers in Leonard Floyd and Von Miller, along with two elite safeties in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The situation is getting dire at cornerback and inside linebacker, but if the Bills can win at the line of scrimmage and get after the quarterback effectively, they could easily shut out the Giants. There will be some growing pains for sure, but who is trusting the Giants to score at least 16 on Sunday? I’m not.
Giants-Bills NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: New York Team Total Under 15.5 -110 at Caesars
Cowboys-Chargers NFL Week 6 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Cowboys: -130 | Chargers: +110
Cowboys -2: -110 | Chargers +2: -110
Over 51: -110 | Under 51: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Monday, Oct. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Dallas Cowboys just got embarrassed on national television this Sunday. In a matchup that some billed as an NFC Championship preview, the Cowboys managed only 10 points, three of which were scored after quarterback Dak Prescott was benched for the evening. Prescott had thrown three interceptions before getting relieved by Cooper Rush. The Cowboys will play another game out in California, this one against the Los Angeles Chargers. Former Dallas offensive coordinator (and quarterback) Kellen Moore leads the Chargers’ offense, and for as much confidence I have in him as a play-caller, the Chargers lack the personnel necessary to take care of business against the visiting team.
Prescott goes from facing a top-six pass defense in EPA allowed per dropback to a bottom-six unit in the metric. The Chargers’ defense is so bad that the team’s big-name signing before the 2022 season, cornerback J.C. Jackson, had to get shipped back to the New England Patriots. The Chargers are coming off their bye for this matchup, but I’m not all that worried in this case — an off week won’t help a defense that ranks 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and 16th in EPA allowed per rush. The offense may get a shot in the arm with the return of running back Austin Ekeler, but both he and quarterback Justin Herbert will have a tough time beating a brutal Dallas defense.
Dallas’ defense comes into Week 6 ranked highly in most EPA metrics despite last weekend’s blowout loss. The Cowboys rank ninth in EPA allowed per rush and fourth in EPA allowed per dropback. They also rank first in pass-rush win rate (60%). The Chargers’ offensive line ranks a dreadful 26th in pass-block win rate (50%), so it’s unlikely that Herbert will have much time to through. Worse, Dallas’ defenders will be well-versed in Moore’s scheme. While that does cut both ways — the L.A. offense will be well-versed in what Dallas’ defense will do — the Chargers just don’t have the personnel or talent to stop Micah Parsons.
I’m siding with Dallas to get a much-needed bounce-back win against Los Angeles on Monday Night Football. I’m generally skeptical of the Cowboys, but this is a must-win spot after Week 5’s embarrassing defeat. Dallas is an impressive 14-6 after a loss dating back to Mike McCarthy’s arrival in 2020. They are also a steady 10-5 as a road favorite with an average margin of 9.9, which is +4.2 relative to the spread. The Chargers are just 1-2 as a home underdog under Brandon Staley, and they are only 2-4 with a rest advantage. While I would love to see Moore score some revenge against his former employer on Monday night, the odds of that are far worse than the market suggests.
Cowboys-Chargers NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: Dallas ML -126 at FanDuel
Broncos-Chiefs NFL Week 6 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Broncos: +450 | Chiefs: -600
Broncos +10.5: -110 | Chiefs -10.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Denver Broncos are not a good football team. Their decision to ship off pass rusher Randy Gregory well before the trade deadline signals that they’re aware of this fact. Last week’s embarrassing loss to the New York Jets, in which a team that entered the game averaging 15.5 points per game put up 31, should be the nail in the coffin for any hopes this team had of competing in 2023. Denver’s defense ranks 31st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush attempt and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback. No team can compete with a defense that terrible.
Unfortunately, the rest of the world knows how awful Denver’s defense is. The Broncos are a 10.5-point underdog for Thursday Night Football, and the Chiefs’ team total sits at a lofty 29.5. Although it’s tempting, let’s not jump at that number. Yes, the Broncos are allowing 36.2 points per game, but opposing offenses have only surpassed that number three times. Further, Kansas City is averaging only 25.6 points per game, and, as we saw against the New York Jets, they care more about winning football games than their either individual or team stats.
Instead of playing Kansas City’s full-game team total, I recommend playing their first-half team total. Head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are excellent at milking the clock after building an early lead, but for them to do that, they’ll have to build the early lead first. Kansas City ranks fifth in points scored per first half (17.6) while Denver ranks 31st in points allowed per first half (17.6). Both of the teams they have faced on the road thus far scored at least three first-half touchdowns, but Kansas City’s first-half team total sits at just 14.5.
The Broncos haven’t beaten the Chiefs since quarterback Peyton Manning was still at the helm, and their recent losses to Kansas City have featured plenty of early points. The Chiefs are averaging 15.4 points per first half over their last 10 games against the Broncos, dating back to the start of the Patrick Mahomes era, and those games often featured far better defenses. The Chiefs should coast to an early lead in Arrowhead on Thursday Night Football, so take advantage of their relatively low first-half team total for this week’s action.
Broncos-Chiefs NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: Kansas City 1H Team Total Over 14.5 -110 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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