An action-packed Week 7 slate awaits bettors and fans alike. Although six teams are on a bye, plenty of value remains across the player prop markets. Our staff has identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 7, including Patrick Mahomes, for Chargers-Chiefs, Browns-Colts, Packers-Broncos and more Week 7 action.
NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Patrick Mahomes, Jonathan Taylor & More
Browns-Colts Player Prop Bet | Week 7
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Who: Jonathan Taylor at DraftKings
Is this the week Jonathan Taylor finally gets unleashed? After having to sit for the first four weeks due to being placed on the PUP list, Taylor has rushed for just 37 yards on 14 carries in the two games he appeared in. Last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the game script dictated Taylor’s usage. The Colts fell behind 21-6 in the first half, which resulted in Taylor running the ball just three times in the second half. This week, against the Cleveland Browns in a game that features only a three-point spread, I expect the Indianapolis offense to be able to move the ball down the field while their defense keeps them in this game.
There’s no debate about how elite the Browns rush defense is. They held Christian McCaffrey to 43 yards on the ground before he exited the game with an injury. But this line is too low for the expected snap share Taylor should see: Taylor saw 42% of the snaps last week compared to just 15% the week prior. He signed a three-year $42 million contract to be the focal point of this offense, not to back up Zack Moss.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew II is well regarded as a top backup quarterback in the league. He didn’t look like it last week. He threw three interceptions and attempted 55 passes. Those aren’t winning numbers. Barring a blowout, Taylor should see at least 12 attempts on the ground and is capable of breaking one off at any time.
Best NFL Week 7 Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 43.5 Rushing Yards -115 at DraftKings
Falcons-Buccaneers Player Prop Bet | Week 7
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
Who: Bijan Robinson at FanDuel
The eighth overall pick in this year’s draft has not disappointed. Bijan Robinson has been a workhorse for the Atlanta Falcons. He is coming off playing a career-high 64 snaps and recording 18 touches. Instead of attacking him in the run game against a stingy Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense, we’re backing him in the passing game, where he has been a mismatch nightmare for opposing defenses.
Quarterback Desmond Ridder is coming off a three-interception game that resulted in a career-high 47 pass attempts in a 24-16 loss against the Washington Commanders. Of those 47 attempts, Ridder targeted Robinson eight times, with the running back reeling in five balls for 43 yards, second most on the team. I don’t expect Robinson to get another eight targets, but it’s encouraging that Ridder relies on the top athlete on the field to help move the ball. Head coach Arthur Smith will look to make it as easy as possible on Ridder this week, which should result in dump-offs or screen passes to Robinson.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara totaled 33 yards through the air in Week 4 against the Buccaneers in his return from a suspension, while David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions reeled in his catch for 19 yards last week. Expect Ridder to look Robinson’s way early and often to control this NFC South showdown.
Best NFL Week 7 Player Prop Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 24.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Cardinals-Seahawks Player Prop Bet | Week 7
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: Lumen Field, Seattle
Who: Geno Smith at bet365
Geno Smith is a very good quarterback. This season, he has completed 67.6% of his pass attempts for 7.1 yards per attempt. He has thrown just three interceptions as well, good for an interception rate of just 1.8%. However, Smith has thrown seven interceptable passes, so he has benefited from good luck to this point in the year. Even though we’ve seen solid stuff out of Smith this season, the public books have far more faith in the veteran quarterback than the sharp ones.
Pinnacle, a sharp book, is listing Smith at odds of +131 to throw an interception. The public books universally have their odds at a longer price, but none stands out more than bet365. So what do the numbers OddsShopper’s model is spitting out actually mean? The model estimates a fair price for the over at +164, a conclusion it reaches by taking the odds available at sharp books and adjusting for hold. That means we’re getting plenty of edge relative to the number trading at bet365, and, using the Kelly criterion, a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll should wager $38 on it.
There are some non-market-based factors that support this play as well. The Arizona Cardinals could get safety Budda Baker back in time for this one. Baker has seven interceptions dating back to 2020. The Seahawks may also be without DK Metcalf, who is questionable with a hip injury. If Metcalf can’t go, Smith would be down to Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo at wide receiver, all of whom are solid, but Metcalf’s injury could throw things off for them.
New to Bet365? Check out our Bet365 bonus codes — turn $5 into $150 in bonus bets ➚➚
Best NFL Week 7 Player Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions +190 at bet365
Packers-Broncos Player Prop Bet | Week 7
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Who: Jordan Love at FanDuel
The Denver Broncos field one of the NFL’s worst defenses. It’s laughably bad. They have coughed up the most passing yards to quarterbacks per game this year (285.8). They have also surrendered the most expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Patrick Mahomes passed for 306 yards against them last week, Zach Wilson racked up 199, and Justin Fields put up 335. With the team selling edge rushers Randy Gregory and Frank Clark before the deadline, it’s only going to get worse from here. Denver’s defense already ranks last 31st in pass-rush win rate (32%).
We’re trusting Jordan Love to do some serious damage against the Broncos. If Fields can throw for 300-plus yards, what’s stopping Love from going off? Love is averaging 216.6 passing yards per game this season, which isn’t great, but the last time he faced a defense with a pass rush ranked similarly to Denver’s in pass-rush win rate, he threw for 259 yards against the Saints. Love has gone over the number where his prop total for passing yards is trading in three of his five starts on the year.
Love is also coming off a bye week, which means the Packers have had plenty of time to gameplan for the abysmal Denver defense. Running back Aaron Jones is listed as questionable for the game. If Jones is limited or can’t go, we can expect the Packers to pass at a higher clip. Green Bay ranks 11th in passing play percentage (59.7%) and third in passing play percentage over the last three games (65.2%). Back Love to throw for 250-plus passing yards at odds of +134 via FanDuel.
Best NFL Week 7 Player Prop Pick: Jordan Love 250+ Passing Yards +134 at FanDuel
Chargers-Chiefs Player Prop Bet | Week 7
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Who: Patrick Mahomes at FanDuel
I’ve bet this Patrick Mahomes player prop quite a few times already this year, and even I was stunned to see it had been a winning pick in five of six games. However, it probably shouldn’t be that surprising. Mahomes is pretty much a god and can do no wrong.
The Week 7 Chargers-Chiefs player prop I love the most is Patrick Mahomes over 24.5 rushing yards. Yes, indeed, Mahomes has gone over this bet 83% of the time this year and has rushed for 28 yards or fewer in one game all season. So, he’s not just covering the number, he’s clearing it by a pretty significant amount. The lone game he didn’t cash this prop? Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings where he, inexplicably, ran zero times. That’s definitely an outlier.
New to FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel promo code for $200 in bonus bets ➚➚
The Chargers have faced five statues at quarterback so far this year, with the most mobile likely being Tua Tagovailoa, you know, the guy who has an extensive injury history and the hips of a 70-year-old man. Mahomes has been quick to take off, in part because of the trash the Chiefs have been running out at wide receiver all year. What else can he do but throw it to Travis Kelce, hand it off or run out of harm’s way when these receivers refuse to get open?
Furthermore, Mahomes has played the Chargers nine times in his career and has gone over the 24-yard mark four times. He also has a pair of games with 21 or more. So, that’s six games with 21 or more rushing yards. He knows this defense well and is very capable. He is averaging just under five rushes per game and is right at 6.5 yards per carry. As long as we don’t get the zero-rush outlier game, I think we should see Mahomes scamper his way to another cash this week.
Best NFL Week 7 Player Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Rushing Yards -114 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 7 now!
