Week 7 was loaded with byes, but Week 8 presents us with all 32 teams in action. Our staff has identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 8, including Breece Hall, for Jets-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Eagles-Commanders and more Week 8 action.
NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Breece Hall, DeVonta Smith & More
Jets-Giants Player Prop Bet | Week 8
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 29 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Who: Breece Hall at BetRivers
When I think of things I love to see, there’s nothing better that comes to mind than seeing dusty running backs getting shelved while the torch gets passed to the more dynamic, explosive back. Fire up the Michael Scott “It’s happening!” gif from The Office. Breece Hall has officially been unleashed as the No. 1 running back for the New York Jets, and we’re about to witness a legacy game.
Indeed, our Jets-Giants player prop bet this week comes in the form of Breece Hall going over 86.5 rushing and receiving yards.
The Giants are abysmal at stopping the run and have allowed 122 rushing yards per game this season. They’re also allowing opposing running backs to rush for five yards per carry. The Jets have been getting Hall more involved, and it started with a 22-carry game against the Broncos in Week 6 where he ran for 177 yards.
Since Week 5, the Jets have given Hall 17 touches per game (40 rushes, 11 receptions) while leaning on him to mask their obvious quarterback issues. If we’re getting 17 touches from Hall in a game against a defense as poor as the Giants, I’m betting on this 86.5 rushing and receiving yard prop every time. I’m firing it up with confidence.
Best NFL Week 8 Player Prop Pick: Breece Hall Over 86.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards for -113 at BetRivers
Vikings-Packers Player Prop Bet | Week 8
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 29 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
Who: Kirk Cousins at FanDuel
Kirk Cousins torched the San Francisco 49ers on primetime for 378 passing yards, a season-best performance for him. He’ll now get to take on the floundering Green Bay Packers as a 1.5-point road favorite. However, this matchup isn’t as easy as you may think — especially not when it comes to volume stats. The Packers have coughed up the third-fewest total passing yards to quarterbacks (1,284), which equates to 214 per game. There hasn’t been a ton of deviation from that number, either — no opposing quarterback has thrown for more than the 236 yards Desmond Ridder notched for the Falcons.
Cousins does a ton of work in the Minnesota offense, but he is down his best receiver and has played far worse on the road than at home this year. Sure, the Vikings pass 68.8% of the time. Cousins won’t have Justin Jefferson, which is bad. He threw for only 181 yards in his first game without Jefferson. That game was also on the road, which speaks to another one of Cousins’ flaws — he is averaging only 228 passing yards on the road this year, way down from the 343.3 he is averaging at home.
The books have set Cousins’ passing yardage total all the way up in the 250s. Using OddsShopper’s model, you’ll find that the best line widely available is the 258.5 at FanDuel, which is just slightly worse than the 260.5 at PointsBet. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the total at just 254.5 with the juice stacked heavily on the under. This play owns true odds of -138 (57.9%), per OddsShopper’s model, which indexes the lines available at both sharp and public books, weighs them and adjusts for hold. We’re getting 9% EV on this play, and a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll should wager $73.
Best NFL Week 8 Player Prop Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 258.5 Passing Yards -114 at FanDuel
Falcons-Titans Player Prop Bet | Week 8
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 29 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.
Who: Desmond Ridder at BetMGM
You probably don’t think much of quarterback Desmond Ridder as a passer. You shouldn’t — he isn’t efficient. He ranks 25th of 33 eligible quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per play. That’s bad, but he has managed to stuff the stat sheet despite his struggles. He is averaging 232.9 passing yards per game on 7.1 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown for 225-plus yards in his last three games after failing to do so in all but one of his first four. He now gets to face the injury-riddled Tennessee Titans who just shipped off star safety Kevin Byard to the Philadelphia Eagles. Byard was the heart and soul of the defense, and his departure will create some openings for Ridder to exploit.
Tennessee’s secondary was already bad, but the Byard trade makes it one of the league’s worst. The Titans rank 28th in EPA allowed per dropback through six games. They have coughed up 256.7 passing yards per game to quarterbacks as well. Byard’s departure thrusts newly acquired Terrell Edmunds into a big role, but he has a lot to learn in a short time — and he owns a dismal PFF grade of 59.7. The Titans also added K’Von Wallace from waivers, which is where he landed after recording a grade of 57.3 for Arizona through six games. For some perspective, Byard has a not-terrible 67.3. Fellow safety Amani Hooker has a 63.3. Starting cornerback Kristian Fulton owns a 45.1, though, so the Titans need good safety play to bail him out.
Ridder should cook against a secondary that features two struggling players who must now adjust to a new scheme. Again, although he isn’t that efficient, he has some of the NFL’s most athletically gifted players catching his passes: Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London. This Titans defense won’t be able to stop them before the catch, and they could easily let them break off big gains after it, too. You’ll find the total for his passing yardage set to 220.5 in most spots, although a few books like BetRivers are hanging a 216.5. But if you’re like most of the country, you’re probably stuck playing the 220.5 for -115 at BetMGM with me.
Best NFL Week 8 Player Prop Pick: Desmond Ridder Over 220.5 Passing Yards -115 at BetMGM
Cowboys-Rams Player Prop Bet | Week 8
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 29 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Who: Tony Pollard at FanDuel
The last time we backed Tony Pollard, he reeled in a Dak Prescott pass and took it 60 yards to cash our over on Monday Night Football. Instead of targeting him in the passing game in what I read as a negative game script, we’re turning to Pollard’s rushing props, as we expect the Cowboys to feed their star back who are fresh off their bye week.
The Cowboys find themselves as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday against the Rams. There are a couple of angles to attack for Pollard, but his rushing attempts line seems best. That number is set at a whopping 16.5 on DraftKings — the books expect a positive game script for the Cowboys and for them to run Pollard into the ground. Reasonably so, as the Cowboys have yet to have success relying on just the arm of Dak Prescott.
Let’s dive into the Cowboys’ recent games and how Pollard has fared. Before their bye week against the Los Angeles Chargers, Pollard couldn’t get anything going. He ran the ball 15 times for only two yards per carry. The two weeks prior were much of the same in terms of production. Against the San Francisco 49ers, Pollard ran the ball just eight times in what was a dumpster fire of an offensive showing for the Cowboys, and against the New England Patriots, he ran just 11 times in a blowout victory. I expect Pollard to showcase his work on the ground against a Rams rush defense that has allowed over four yards per carry this year.
Best NFL Week 8 Player Prop Pick: Tony Pollard Over 66.5 Rushing Yards -114 at FanDuel
Eagles-Commanders Player Prop Bet | Week 8
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 29 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Md.
Who: DeVonta Smith at DraftKings
Do you believe in bounce-back weeks? I do. DeVonta Smith has been quiet the last few weeks. The production of A.J. Brown isn’t helping Smith’s case. Brown has put together five straight games of at least 125 yards through the air. He’s on the verge of breaking the record set by Calvin Johnson. That isn’t going to stop me from backing Smith against a Washington Commanders defense that he knows very well.
Smith has had some of the biggest games of his career against this Commanders defense. In Week 4, he reeled in a season-high seven catches for 78 yards against them. Last year, he had a 169-yard game with eight catches. A wide receiver like Smith is hard to keep in check, and I expect the Eagles to get him involved in their patented screen game to get his confidence back up after weeks of drops. He was targeted 11 times in the Eagles’ only loss this season, which came against the New York Jets two weeks ago. He squeaked by this prop then but failed to do so last week against the Miami Dolphins in primetime.
You’ll find most major books offering Smith to record over 4.5 catches in the plus money. DraftKings is leading the way at +120, while FanDuel is offering this player prop at +116. With a hobbled Jalen Hurts, short dump-offs will be just fine to cash this prop.
Best NFL Week 8 Player Prop Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions +120 at DraftKings
Chiefs-Broncos Player Prop Bet | Week 8
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 29 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver
Who: Isiah Pacheco at DraftKings
This Isiah Pacheco player prop has hit in three of his last four games, so we’re going to ride the streak and make it four of his last five games. For Sunday afternoon’s Chiefs-Broncos game, we’re going to ride with Pacheco to record over 2.5 receptions. Through seven weeks, he has managed three or more catches in four games, including a six-catch performance against these same Broncos in Week 6.
The Broncos are one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping opposing running backs. How bad, you ask? Extremely bad. They’re giving 198.6 combined rushing and receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Need some more numbers? How about the fact that the Broncos are coughing up almost seven receptions per game to running backs? You’re smelling what I’m stepping in here, right? I mean … you have to be.
Getting this line at only 2.5 feels like we’re stealing, but you never look a gift horse in the mouth. Snatch that value and hammer this bet.
Best NFL Week 8 Player Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 2.5 Receptions -120 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 8 now!
