It’s another crazy week in the NFL headlined by the Chiefs bouncing back in Germany, the battle for the NFC East, and possible upset spots like with Seattle and the Jets winning outright. How we get there is always the fun part so take a look at the 14 games and where they rank in this week’s confidence pool. The season is deep enough where upsets can be pushed up higher on the list, especially if anyone is trying to gain some ground on the field. Thanks for reading!
NFL Week 9 Confidence Pool Picks
NFL Week 9 Confidence Pool Picks Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with ***
14- Kansas City Chiefs (-139) vs Miami Dolphins
Let the leverage game begin. Did you know the Chiefs are now 1-10 ATS off a double-digit win? This following their outright disaster in Denver. Now, they bounce back against a Dolphins team that’s faced some battles over the past few weeks. The concern seems to be who Patrick Mahomes is throwing to, not named Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, but the Chiefs defense is playing better this year, especially against the run. Miami is in a truly unfortunate spot as this is prime bounce back mode for the heavily experienced Chiefs even it’s it being played in Germany.
13- New Orleans Saints (-325) vs Chicago Bears
No need to overthink this one, the Chicago Bears are a disgrace to the NFL. If you haven’t noticed, the Bears are awful no matter who lines up as the quarterback. The Saints survived a shootout against the Colts and got a decent boost on offense. Derrick Carr is a no-no when favored on the road, but at home it’s a different story – especially against a team that might get shutout.
12- Atlanta Falcons (-198) vs Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have a quarterback issue whereas the Falcons used to have one. Making the move from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke will be the smartest thing Arthur Smith has done in years. The Falcons are significantly better with a QB that actually looks downfield. The Falcons defense will be just fine against a backup QB situation with the Vikings. Trade deadline or not, nothing is going to change how bad the Vikings currently are.
11 – Cleveland Browns (-360) vs Arizona Cardinals
Another heavy favorite up top as it’s not the Browns time to go down, not to this Cardinals team and not at home in Cleveland. DC Jim Schwartz historically sees his defensive units play better at home versus on the road, adding a vulnerable opponent in the Cardinas. Cleveland has some health issues at the QB spot but even their backup is good enough to ride a run game and defense. The Cardinals have been able to hang in some games but it’s too tough of an environment to overcome.
10 – Philadelphia Eagles (-155) vs Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is 5-12 SU in road games between two home games, including a 21 to 16 TD to INT ratio. He’s played well before leading up to those games so this isn’t a first time or something new. There are two games that fit this bill remaining on The Cowboys schedule, with Philadelphia and Carolina. The other game? Arizona. Yes, Jalen Hurts isn’t 100 percent but has an MVP-type WR in AJ Brown, a huge offensive line, and a competent run game. Not to mention a front seven that can put immense pressure on Prescott. The Cowboys aren’t tough enough to hang with the Eagles this week.
9 – Green Bay Packers (-159) vs Los Angeles Rams***
The Rams come off a rough loss to the Cowboys, but it was more about Dallas needing that win. LA is catching points this week partly because of that loss but also being on the road in a hostile environment. The truth is anyone who’s watched Jordan Love play football is incapable of being hostile to the other side. He just zaps the life out of a fandom used to Hall of Fame level talent behind center. Green Bay is sliding fast as Detroit is the new king of the division. Expect a healthy return to normalcy for a Rams offense capable of lighting up defenses with multiple threats in the air. Sean McVay has won games without Matthew Stafford, while Matt LeFleur is struggling without Aaron Rodgers.
8 – Houston Texans (-145) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers***
A big component of a bounce back game is being talented enough to do so, lacking that quality usually results in a team just being bad. There’s certainly some middle ground for this year’s Texans team but that was a crazy loss to Frank Reich’s Panthers last week. Houston has been playing above their expected results for a while so it’s more likely they go down again than bounce back with some emphatic victory. The Bucs should be ok here pending health, but they return rested, and Baker Mayfield has played well enough to beat Houston.
7 – Cincinnati Bengals (-142) vs Buffalo Bills
For all the focus on the offensive firepower boasted by the Cincinnati Bengals, it’s their defense carrying them at times to victory. Good for them as there will be plenty of chances to disrupt Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense. Cincy came off the bye and hammered the Niners and hit this game with a ton of momentum. Buffalo has been spotty this year and is dealing with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. It’s not the QBs who will win this, even though Joe Burrow has an 8-2 TD to INT ratio over the past three games, as it will be won by defense – Cincinnati’s defense.
6 – New England Patriots (-166) vs Washington Commanders
This is more about fading the Commanders than riding with the Patriots, but it is dropped a bit to a 6-point play. The Pats were in a physical battle against Miami this past week while the Commanders traded their two best defensive linemen. They also played their most important game of the year and lost against the Eagles. Tough to come back from all of that even if your opponent is the Patriots offense.
5 – Baltimore Ravens (-240) vs Seattle Seahawks
This has cover written all over it in Seattle Seahawks font. Granted, it’s not easy against Baltimore, but Seattle is no stranger to the cross-country trip, nor is there anything they are doing that’s not sustainable on the road. It’s rather the opposite, as their defense is starting to resemble the old Legion of Boom, which will travel anywhere on the planet. The play is dropped as there is legit threat of an outright win by Seattle, but ultimately the Ravens 2nd ranked defense at home is reason to still take them to win the game.
4 – Indianapolis Colts (-148) at Carolina Panthers***
For a more detailed look at how much revenge does impact an NFL game, be sure to check out this week’s NFL upset of the week column. The Panthers are heading in the right direction, at least not in the same winless one before last week. Meanwhile the Colts dropped their third straight game and seem to truly enjoy turning over the football. People will tell you that Carolina doesn’t turn over their opponent to win this game, those people are wrong. Gardner Minshew is a gracious guest and will ensure there will be plenty of chances for the Panthers.
3 – Los Angeles Chargers (-155) at New York Jets***
No real reach here but Brandon Staley is not Pete Carroll. While the latter mastered the longest road trip, nobody should be banking on the Chargers coach for being that prepared. It’s more of a mitigating factor than an outright edge for the Jets, but it should help keep some scoring off the board. The Chargers’ run defense isn’t bad, but the Jets have found creative ways to get Breece Hall in the open field. Zach Wilson will always be the concern for as long as he’s starting, but the Jets defense is good enough to do the carrying. At 4-3 the Jets aren’t out of anything and will be playing accordingly.
2 – Pittsburgh Steelers (-142) vs Tennessee Titans
Both teams on the short week but it’s the first time ever for Will Levis. Just his second start of his young career so don’t expect another 4-TD extravaganza. Instead, it’s more likely he faces an insurmountable hurdle in whatever the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers defense throws. The Titans are still sellers even if that means waiting until the end of year, and their locker room is a wastel
1 – Las Vegas Raiders (-135) vs New York Giants***
Don’t watch the game. Spend time with your family, and know that at the 1-point line, this is ultimately a coin flip. The difference is the Giants can parade out Daniel Jones and they are still better on offense than Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders are a farce and drop one at home.
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