Although the NFL’s Week 9 slate isn’t the most interesting, there are still a handful of standout games to watch — and plenty of standout player props to bet. Our staff has identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 9, including Jonathan Taylor, for Colts-Panthers, Giants-Raiders and more Week 9 action.
NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams & More
Cardinals-Browns Player Prop Bet | Week 9
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Who: Jerome Ford at bet365
The Arizona Cardinals have a problem: they cannot stop the run. The Cardinals currently rank sixth-worst in total rushing yards allowed to running backs (877). Worse, they rank 32nd in run-stop win rate (27%). This is a recipe for disaster against a stocky Cleveland offensive line that has helped numerous running backs put together solid numbers. Cleveland’s new lead back, Jerome Ford, should reap the benefits of this advantage.
Ford isn’t the most impressive runner, but he is more than solid enough to capitalize in this spot. The Browns are a 10-point home favorite, so Ford should also benefit from a positive game script. He is averaging 54.4 rushing yards per game despite not starting every week and having to split work with the likes of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Ford has been efficient with his touches and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
The books have set Ford’s rushing yardage total to just 42.5. That underestimates just how lethal he can be against a bad Cardinals defense. Although he saw just nine carries last week, fewer than both Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr., he was nursing an ankle injury that had held him out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He managed to practice all week this time around, and he was a full participant for the first time since Week 7 on Friday. Trust him to surpass a rock-bottom rushing yardage prop on Sunday.
Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Pick: Jerome Ford Over 42.5 Rushing Yards -115 at bet365
Rams-Packers Player Prop Bet | Week 9
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
Who: Aaron Jones at FanDuel
The Green Bay Packers do not have a viable offense. Quarterback Jordan Love has struggled to move the ball downfield, and head coach Matt LaFleur has been reticent to let him. The Packers are coming off a 14-point home loss to the Minnesota Vikings in which Love went 24-for-41 for just 4.4 net yards per attempt (NY/A), largely because he routinely opted for short-yardage looks. Although Green Bay’s inefficient offense is bad for Packers fans, it creates an opportunity for sports bettors.
The Packers will take on the Los Angeles Rams this weekend. While the Rams have struggled to stop many types of offensive plays, dump-off passes to running backs haven’t been one of them. The Rams have coughed up a league-low 132 receiving yards to the position on the year. However, they haven’t faced an offense with as miserable of a receiving corps as Green Bay’s this season. Despite having missed multiple games, Jones is sixth on the Packers in receiving yards (121). He is fourth in receiving yards per game (30.3).
One look at OddsShopper’s model reveals that there is plenty of value in backing Jones to go over 20.5 receiving yards. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has his total set to 21.5 with the juice stacked heavily on the over, but we can get a one-yard discount for a much friendlier price at FanDuel. While other offenses have looked to wide receivers and tight ends against the Rams, Jones often does his damage as a receiver when split out wide. His high route participation rate (33.1%) means he should get plenty of chances to contribute. Look for the Packers to feature their star running back in a must-win home game.
Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Pick: Aaron Jones Over 20.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Bears-Saints Player Prop Bet | Week 9
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Who: Chris Olave at Bet365
There are absolutely zero reasons why this Chris Olave reception prop should be 4.5 unless the dude has two broken arms. And even then, I still might be firing on it.
I fired up OddsShopper’s model, and it took all of about .2 seconds for it to spit out the over as a great bet. In fact, it not only told me this bet should win about 61% of the time, but it also found the best odds at bet365 for me. So I snap-bet this prop over there. There’s nothing I love more than someone else doing the work for me. Ironically, that’s basically what I’m doing for you. Working hard — er, not so hard by using that tool — to give you the picks.
Olave has eclipsed the 4.5 reception mark in six of eight games this season, which is pretty impressive considering he has the corpse that is Derek Carr throwing him the ball. All jokes aside, Olave has double-digit targets in five games this season and is averaging 5.5 grabs per game. This Bears defense is a sieve, and they’re bottom 10 in the NFL in receptions allowed to opposing receivers. Olave should be able to cash this ticket for us with relative ease.
Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Pick: Chris Olave Over 4.5 Receptions for -145 at bet365
Commanders-Patriots Player Prop Bet | Week 9
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Who: Mac Jones at FanDuel
It’s been an up-and-down year for third-year quarterback Mac Jones. The Patriots fell to a brutal 2-6 last week with a road loss to the Miami Dolphins in which Jones threw for only 161 yards. However, the Patriots were coming off a four-point win over the Buffalo Bills a week before, and Jones had thrown for 272 yards in that contest. The Patriots now return home for a must-win game over a Washington Commanders team that sold at the trade deadline.
Jones’ splits point to some meaningful value here. He has played far better at home than on the road — Jones is averaging 232.3 passing yards per game in Gillette Stadium versus 178 yards per game outside of it. This trend has held true throughout Jones’ career — he is averaging 226.9 passing yards per game in home contests versus 205.4 passing yards per game in road contests. Jones has gone over the number where the books have set his passing yardage prop, 222.5, in three of his four home starts this year.
I recommend teasing Jones’ passing yardage prop up to 225 at FanDuel, where you’ll find the over priced at -108. Jones has beaten this number in 20 of his 39 career starts, including 13 of his 20 starts at Gillette Stadium. Jones will also face a bad pass rush now that the Commanders have dealt defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young. New England’s offensive line may rank a dismal 32nd in pass-block win rate (44%), but that shouldn’t matter against the bad defensive front the Commanders trot out in Week 9.
Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Pick: Mac Jones 225+ Passing Yards -108 at FanDuel
Colts-Panthers Player Prop Bet | Week 9
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Who: Jonathan Taylor at FanDuel
This player prop will be a popular one come Sunday, so let’s get ahead of it. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 95 yards last Sunday. All 95 of those yards came in the first half. Taylor ran the ball one more time in the second half on the Colts’ first drive to open up the third quarter. That can’t happen. Fast forward to this week against the Carolina Panthers, where the Colts are 2.5-point favorites on the road, which should lead to Taylor getting extensive work on the ground.
After Taylor’s four-game hiatus, he has appeared in four games and has gradually gotten a larger workload each time out. In the first two weeks, Taylor combined for 14 carries on 37 yards. He answered that with 170 yards on the ground the next two weeks. The Colts are making Taylor work for the massive contract he received weeks ago, and it’s paying off for bettors.
The Panthers have been killed on the ground this season. The list of running backs that have had success against them this season is a long one. Before their bye week, they allowed four straight starting running backs to rush for at least 90 yards. Their 140 rushing yards allowed per game is the fourth most in the NFL. We may see another small dosage of backup running back Zack Moss, but most of the work on the ground should work through Taylor, who has surpassed this line in back-to-back games.
Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 65.5 Rushing Yards -114 at FanDuel
Giants-Raiders Player Prop Bet | Week 9
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Who: Davante Adams at FanDuel
When a book hangs a bad line, you insta-smash it. Well, first you pull a Rod Farva and point at them and say, “Hah! I got you good you f*cker!” Super Troopers … classic. No, but on the real, friends, you snap bet those bad lines. And we got one at FanDuel.
I can’t take all the credit. This one comes courtesy of OddsShopper’s model, which found the Davante Adams over 5.5 receptions prop at FanDuel Sportsbook, while other books like DraftKings, BetMGM and bet365 have it set at 6.5. You don’t have to be a genius to know that it’s easier to hit over 5.5 than it is to hit 6.5.
According to our projections, Adams should cash the over on 5.5 receptions about 61% of the time. You can also read that as 100% of the time because there is no way he’s not getting featured heavily by Aidan O’Connell.
Adams voiced his frustration after Jimmy Garoppolo missed him time after time in Week 8. If there’s one thing the new coaches told the rookie quarterback, I’m sure it’s, “get Adams the damn ball.” We could be looking at a massive target game here, and the revenge narrative vibes are off the charts.
Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Pick: Davante Adams Over 5.5 Receptions for -155 at FanDuel
Cowboys-Eagles Player Prop Bet | Week 9
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Who: Dallas Goedert at FanDuel
A.J. Brown has taken all the headlines of this loaded Philadelphia Eagles offense. Rightfully so, as he just broke the record for most consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith broke out last week, just like we called it, as we took his over in receptions. Let the books keep disrespecting Dallas Goedert during Dallas week — we’re jumping on him for Week 9 in Cowboys-Eagles.
The looks have been there all year long for Goedert. He is averaging six targets per game, seventh most amongst tight ends. He is also coming off a four-reception game against the Washington Commanders that resulted in just 36 yards through the air. But I’m banking on the Cowboys’ full attention turning to Brown and Smith, who have destroyed defenses down the field.
Even with the Eagles playing at home, they are listed as just three-point favorites, as divisional games typically stay close. The Cowboys’ elite defense can give quarterback Jalen Hurts problems, which would force the Eagles into a passing-heavy game script. Playing from behind is right where we want the Eagles, as Goedert would get short work in the middle of the field while the Cowboys focus on preventing Brown and Smith beating them over the top.
Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 42.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
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