It may seem a bit early to start betting on NFL futures in March, but that’s exactly what I like to do this time of year. Last March, we placed a five-unit wager on the Tennessee Titans to stay under 7.5 wins. We also placed a 2.6-unit wager on the Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs. Both bets hit, netting a six-unit return and a 78.9% ROI. While the board isn’t as good this year as it was last year, I’ve still found one NFL future bet worth taking early. Let’s dive into our top NFL win total bet for 2024. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NFL betting tools or the rest of our NFL betting articles!
NFL Win Total Bets: This Team Looks Majorly Overrated (2024)
NFL Win Total Bets: Miami Dolphins O/U 10.5 Wins
The Miami Dolphins have one of the worst salary cap situations in the NFL right now. Their cap issues have forced the team to part ways with several key pieces, but not ones most fans pay much attention to. Miami’s attrition along both the offensive and defensive lines as well as in the secondary should be much bigger red flags.
Let’s look at a quick recap of Miami’s offseason departures to date, including their position and approximate value. Note that several current free agents who played for Miami last season are excluded, including Bruce Irvin, Justin Houston and Eli Apple, despite the unlikelihood that they return to Miami Gardens:
| Player | Position | AV |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Wilkins | DT | 8 |
| Robert Hunt | G | 5 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | LB | 6 |
| Brandon Jones | S | 3 |
| Raekwon Davis | DT | 4 |
| Jerome Baker | OLB | 6 |
| DeShon Elliott | SS | 5 |
| Cedrick Wilson | WR | 3 |
| Xavien Howard | CB | 4 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | 2 |
| Connor Williams | C | 5 |
Dolphins’ Front Seven Loses Big
The Dolphins’ front seven got plundered at the trade deadline. Christian Wilkins (74.9 PFF) is off for the Las Vegas Raiders on a huge contract. Andrew Van Ginkel (91.1) is off for Minnesota, too, while Raekwon Davis (58.8) is off to the Indianapolis Colts and Jerome Baker (66.6) is off to the Seattle Seahawks. These players accounted for 24 points of approximate value last season.
The Dolphins did add some players to replace them, but they didn’t get great talent. They added Jordyn Brooks (57.3 PFF, 6 AV) to replace Baker, but he costs much more money than Baker will cost Seattle. Shaquil Barrett (75.3 PFF, 8 AV) should fill in for Van Ginkel well and gives the Dolphins some savings. They’ll hope Jonathan Harris (52 PFF, 3 AV) can help in the interior, but he isn’t much of a replacement for Davis or Wilkins.
Brooks, Barrett and Harris join a front seven that was already pressed for depth. Currently, Benito Jones (37.4 PFF, 6 AV) projects as a starter alongside Harris and Zach Sieler (68.1 PFF, 9 AV) along the defensive line with questionable reserve options in Isaiah Mack, Da’Shawn Hand, Neville Gallimore and not much else. Wilkins was getting double-teamed at a 65% rate last year, so expect some regression from his teammates now that he’s gone.
It doesn’t help that Miami lost edge rushers Jaelan Phillips (79.2 PFF, 3 AV) to an Achilles tear in late November and Bradley Chubb (88.8 PFF, 8 AV) to an ACL tear in late December. While Phillips will probably be ready by Week 1, it’s not guaranteed, and I suspect Chubb may begin the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Their absences would put a ton of pressure on Barrett or Melvin Ingram III (54.3 PFF, 0 AV), longtime vets whose best days are likely behind them.
The Secondary Got Even Thinner
The Dolphins may have added Jordan Poyer (73 PFF, 5 AV) at safety, which is a great net gain over the Buffalo Bills, but they lost both Brandon Jones (76.8 PFF, 3 AV) and DeShon Elliott (72.6 PFF, 5 AV) at the position. Poyer is a battle-tested veteran, but he’s entering his age-33 season this year. He currently projects to start alongside Jevon Holland (90.4 PFF, 5 AV), which is a good duo — except the Dolphins are down to only have one reserve, Elijah Campbell, at the position.
Poyer and Holland will likely have to bail out a secondary lacking cornerback depth. Jalen Ramsey (66.4 PFF, 7 AV) wasn’t his usual dominant self last year and is entering his age-30 season. Miami brought in Kendall Fuller (83.3 PFF, 5 AV) to replace Xavien Howard (55.1 PFF, 4 AV) and Eli Apple (55.3 PFF 2 AV), who should be an upgrade, but again, depth is an issue — aside from Kader Kohou (64.5 PFF, 5 AV), most of Miami’s reserves in the secondary are special-teamers.
Can the Offensive Line Keep Tua Tagovailoa Upright?
The Dolphins have a lethal passing attack engineered by head coach Mike McDaniel, but it all revolved around quick reads and throws. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in seconds in the pocket per dropback (2.1), releasing the ball so quickly as to only face pressure 15.7% of the time. While these quick-read passes were effective, they were also the only ones the Dolphins could get due to their poor offensive line play. When forced to take longer dropbacks, Tagovailoa struggled — watch his tape from late in Miami’s games versus Philadelphia, Buffalo and Baltimore.
The Dolphins need some way to let routes develop for longer periods, especially with Tyreek Hill entering his age-30 season. Their offensive line ranked a dismal 31st in pass-block win rate last year (49%). Unfortunately, they won’t get much help in the trenches. Star center Connor Williams (86.5 PFF, 5 AV) is currently a free agent and will miss at the least the start of the season with an injury. The Dolphins also lost guard Robert Hunt (77.1 PFF, 5 AV) to the Carolina Panthers. They added center Aaron Brewer (71.6 PFF, 6 AV), but that’s a downgrade from Williams, and they have yet to bring in anyone new.
Is Tua Tagovailoa Even That Good?
I’m sure you saw this one coming, but it’s a question worth asking: is Tua Tagovailoa a system quarterback? Sure, it looked like he was in the MVP race at some points this season, and yes, he ranked well in expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) metrics, but how much of that falls on his shoulders, and how much falls on the shoulders of McDaniel and his elite cast of receivers?
Tagovailoa will still have McDaniel calling the shots next season, so it’s not like that advantage will disappear. However, the edge his support cast has given him in recent years may evaporate. Tyreek Hill may regress or get injured. Jaylen Waddle has struggled to stay healthy so far, too. Running back Raheem Mostert, known for his game-breaking speed, is now entering his age-32 season.
The Dolphins only won 11 games last year. I don’t know how they’ll repeat that feat this season. I’m betting on them to stay under 10.5 wins for 2.5 units and wagered a half-unit on them to miss the playoffs for +140.
NFL Win Total Bet: Miami Dolphins UNDER 10.5 Wins -145 at DraftKings
