Star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow will take center stage when the surging Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills in a battle of AFC Contenders on Monday Night Football. With bettors looking for the best value on the board, there’s one Josh Allen NFL prop bet that stands out above all else.
NFL Prop Bets: Best Josh Allen Prop Bet in Bills-Bengals
Josh Allen Prop: O/U 263.5 Passing Yards
When using Stokastic’s NFL Player Prop tool to key in on the Bills-Bengals matchup, the models have highlighted the UNDER 263.5 passing yards (DraftKings) as a strong value play for MNF. The projections have Allen finishing with 256.5 passing yards, giving the under a 59% chance of hitting. The expected ROI of 18% is the highest of any quarterback prop ahead of MNF.
Allen came into he 2022-23 NFL season as the consensus favorite to win the MVP Award. But he has been struggling (by his standards) of late. Playing in freezing Chicago temperatures in Week 16 against the Bears, Allen completed just 15 of 26 passes for 172 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Buffalo would lean on their running game in route to a 35-13 win. Allen has passed for over 260 yards just one time over his past six games.
Despite going up against a weak Bears defense, Allen had just 89 passing yards and receiver Stephon Diggs didn’t have a single target in the first half of the Bears. This has been a somewhat-concerning recent trend for Allen and the passing game. Over the last three weeks, Allen is the No. 18 ranked quarterback on PFF. He’s averaging a 60.2% completion percentage during that time, with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
While it may feel like Josh Allen and the Bills defense is just waiting to get back to their dominant ways at any point, there is a lot of value in fading the star quarterback on MNF. Feel free to use our Oddsshopper tools for the best odds on all Bills-Bengals sides, totals and prop bets.
Best Bills-Bengals NFL Prop Bet: Josh Allen UNDER 263.5 passing yards
