Here we go again: Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers will take on Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers for a bid to the NFC Championship game. LaFleur and Shanahan aren’t even the only coaches from the Mike Shanahan coaching tree still alive in the playoffs, as Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is still in the mix, too. Let’s dive into the best Packers-49ers player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Saturday, including a pick for Aaron Jones. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Packers-49ers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Divisional
Packers-49ers Odds for Saturday
Odds via BetMGM
Packers: +350 | 49ers: -450
Packers +10: -110 | 49ers -10: -110
Over 50.5: -110 | Under 50.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Jan. 20 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Packers-49ers Player Prop Pick
Aaron Jones O/U 18.5 Receiving Yards
By keeping Aaron Jones fresh until late in the season, the Green Bay Packers have given themselves a massive advantage in the playoffs. Jones fried the Cowboys for 118 rushing yards and three scores last week.
Jones has run for 100-plus yards in his last four games, all of which were Green Bay wins. But in close or losing game scripts, he tends to do more work as a receiver, and with the Packers listed as 10-point dogs, that scenario appears likely.
Flash back to Week 1: The Packers came out of halftime with a narrow lead over the Chicago Bears. On the first drive after the break, Jordan Love found Aaron Jones on a screen that Jones turned into a 51-yard gain. The next drive, he caught a short pass over the middle on 4th and 3, which he ran 35 yards to the end zone for a score.
Jones’ and San Francisco’s averages point to value here as well. He averaged 3.9 targets, 2.7 receptions and 21.2 receiving yards per game in the regular season. Last year, he averaged 4.2, 3.5 and 23.2, respectively. Meanwhile, the 49ers are struggling against running backs who can catch. They have allowed the fifth-most receptions (5.3) and the eighth-most receiving yards (36.8) per game to the position.
San Francisco’s recent games demonstrate their vulnerability to pass-catching running backs. In Week 16, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill combined for 70 receiving yards on just four receptions. The next week, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson turned five receptions into 49 receiving yards. In Week 15, the Seattle Seahawks got 37 receiving yards on five receptions from Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, and in Week 14, the Philadelphia Eagles got 76 receiving yards on eight catches from their backfield.
Jones’ receiving yardage prop is sitting at only 18.5 on FanDuel, which you can buy for the standard juice of -110. There aren’t many alt markets open to ladder this with, but I bought the 25 (+152 at FanDuel) and 50 (+575 at Hard Rock) as well, and I advise you do the same.
Packers-49ers Player Prop Pick: Aaron Jones Over 18.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Packers-49ers Model Player Prop
Jauan Jennings O/U 14.5 Receiving Yards
Now that you’ve seen my top Packers-49ers player prop pick, let’s talk about what OddsShopper’s Premium tools think is a good bet. Our model works for the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB — as well as other sports — so no matter what time of year it is, you’re getting sharp bets to build your bankroll.
The model trusts slot receiver Jauan Jennings to go over 14.5 receiving yards this Saturday night. Jennings has been inactive for the last three games, but in his most recent outing, he caught two passes for 25 yards. Jennings has stuck around in San Francisco for so long because of his blocking, but any snaps are good snaps — Jennings has surpassed the 15-receiving yard mark in seven of his 13 games on the year.
So how does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
In this case, the model is identifying Jennings as sharp bet because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 16.5 for -111. Those odds — along with the odds at every other major book — lead it to believe a fair price for the over 14.5 to be -120, which is steeper than the -110 FanDuel is charging for it.
Packers-49ers Player Prop Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 14.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Packers-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I’m getting exposure to two members of the San Francisco 49ers on the anytime touchdown scorer markets. One of them will make a ton of sense: Deebo Samuel. At odds of +110 on bet365 and +105 on FanDuel, he sticks out as a high-value option because Pinnacle is taking action on him all the way down at -111.
Further, Samuel leads the 49ers in red-zone receiving volume. He earned 17 targets inside the 20-yard line this year, good for a team-high share of 24.3%. Samuel didn’t see as much work inside the 10, as he earned only three targets that close to the end zone, but what are we going to do — pay -340 for the main player he trails, Christian McCaffrey?
Samuel also sees some rushing attempts near the goal line. Although McCaffrey dominates the share of carries inside the 20 (62.4%), 10 (60.7%) and five (53.1%), Kyle Shanahan has been willing to get Samuel in the mix. His shares of the workload from those distances are 8.9%, 3.6% and 6.3%, respectively. Both of Samuel’s rushing attempts inside the five-yad line went for touchdowns.
Aside from his personal red-zone volume, I’m targeting Samuel because of San Francisco’s red-zone volume as a team — and Green Bay’s red-zone volume allowed. The Packers rank 26th in red-zone scoring attempts allowed per game (3.4). While they allowed a touchdown on only 53.2% of those possessions, they’ll have to find a way to stop a San Francisco offense that ranks third in red-zone scoring attempts per game (3.9) and first in red-zone touchdown rate (67.2%). I don’t think they’ll keep Samuel out of the end zone.
if you’re looking for a fun long-shot anytime touchdown scorer bet, trust fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The eight-time Pro Bowler (and first-time All-Pro selection as of this year!) found the end zone twice this season, both times as a receiver. He’s no stranger to the end zone in playoff games, either — he scored a touchdown in San Francisco’s Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Juice is trading at +775 on Pinnacle but is +1300 on FanDuel.
Packers-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Deebo Samuel +110 at bet365 & Kyle Juszczyk +1300 at FanDuel
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