The Green Bay Packers earned the privilege to play the Dallas Cowboys in the opening round of the playoffs, which is a brutal matchup because they’ll have to play this one on the road. The Cowboys are undefeated at home this year with a very impressive 6-2 record against the spread. Let’s dive into the best Packers-Cowboys player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, including a pick for Jordan Love. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Packers-Cowboys Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Wild Card
Packers-Cowboys Odds for Sunday
Odds via BetMGM
Packers: +275 | Cowboys: -350
Packers +7: -110 | Cowboys -7: -110
Over 50.5: -110 | Under 50.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Jan. 14 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Packers-Cowboys Player Prop Pick
Jordan Love O/U 0.5 Interceptions
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has put together a solid season, but it hasn’t been a mistake-free campaign. Love threw 11 interceptions on 20 interceptable passes in the regular season.
Love won’t get away with throwing 1.2 interceptable passes per game against the Cowboys’ defense. Dallas is averaging a full interception per game, largely thanks to DaRon Bland.
Love’s interceptions have come in a few specific situations. He threw seven interceptions in nine road games as well as 10 interceptions in eight losses. With the Packers listed as a 7.5-point road dog, the splits aren’t favorable for Love this week.
You’ll find Love trading at odds of -152 to throw a pick at FanDuel. That same bet will cost you -168 at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Even though Love cleaned up his turnovers down the stretch, he benefited from playing several bad teams in favorable game scripts.
Packers-Cowboys Player Prop Pick: Jordan Love Over 0.5 Interceptions -152 at FanDuel
Packers-Cowboys Model Player Prop
Jordan Love O/U 22.5 Pass Completions
We’re just going to keep on fading Jordan Love with this pick from OddsShopper Premium. The odds for him to complete fewer than 22.5 passes sit at +123 on Caesars, which is a steal relative to the rest of the market. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it at +101. Love is completing 21.9 passes per game this year, so he’ll need to have an above-average showing on Sunday to go over this number.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
In this case, the true odds of this wager are +114, which means we’re getting 1.9 percentage points of edge relative to a breakeven price. That’s enough edge for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $15 on this bet.
Packers-Cowboys Player Prop Pick: Jordan Love Under 22.5 Pass Completions +123 at Caesars
Packers-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
We’re going for a correlation angle with our Packers-Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer pick. If Love throws a pick, especially if he throws a pick to DaRon Bland, the Cowboys should have a chance at a return. They have scored six defensive touchdowns as a unit this season.
Of Dallas’ six defensive touchdowns, four took place at AT&T Stadium. Six of Bland’s nine total interceptions also took place in Arlington. The Cowboys were listed as 7-point favorites or more for four of their defensive touchdowns as well.
You’ll find Dallas’ defense and special teams trading at odds of +310 to score at DraftKings and +230 at BetMGM. Those are terrible numbers and you shouldn’t even think about playing them. The +650 for just Dallas’ defense to score at FanDuel is far more appealing.
With defensive touchdowns in five games this year, the implied odds for the +650 (13.3%) are worse than the actual win rate (29.4%). Lock this one in and hope Bland makes a splash in the postseason.
Packers-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Dallas Defense +650 at FanDuel
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