Thanksgiving Day football without the Detroit Lions would be like sitting down to eat without a main course; be it turkey, ham, or lasagna. Unspeakable and difficult to get through would be apt definitions of watching three games without the Lions – a team now synonymous with the holiday. Nonetheless, we are going to have some other games, which allows us to provide our Packers-Lions first touchdown picks!
The Green Bay Packers hit Motown also on a short week coming off a big home win over the Chargers – just their second in their last five attempts. The Lions keep surviving, winning their 8th game of the year by holding off the Bears. Here are the best First TD props for the first of three Turkey Day games!
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Packers-Lions First Touchdown Bet | Week 12 Thanksgiving Day
Green Bay Packers Touchdown Scorer
Green Bay came alive late against the Chargers as they saw Jordan Love hit the 300 passing mark for the first time in his young career. While that should instill some confidence in the kid, it’s more a referendum on how bad the Chargers are on defense – specifically against the pass. Against the Lions defense it’s more likely the Packers will return to running the ball – at least early in this game. The benefit is also taking pressure off the Lions pass rush that should be in Love’s face most of the day.
The problem is who exactly will be running the ball for Green Bay. Aaron Jones is out with an MCL injury, AJ Dillon is extremely limited, and Emanuel Wilson remains questionable with a shoulder injury. It actually opens an interesting door for who can score the first TD, as it should be Dillon playing hurt carrying the majority of the workload. But don’t race to the window to bet Dillon, in fact look at another “leading” rusher for the team.
With all the injuries and good defenses faced this year, Green Bay is watching Love use his legs to an advantage – or out of desperation. Love is the third leading rusher on the team and tied for the lead with two rushing TDs. Green Bay would be smart to devise a couple of planned runs for Love early to also aliviate pressure from the pass rush. Be it flushed out of the pocket, a designed draw, or simply running for his life – Love is the best play for a First TD on Thursday.
Packers-Lions First Touchdown Picks for Thanksgiving Day: Jordan Love +2900 at FanDuel Sportsbook for 0.25 Units
Detroit Lions First Touchdown Scorer
Unlike Green Bay who wants to establish a ground game, the Lions have no choice based on how bad the Packers defend the run. Green Bay is just 28th against the run across the entire league, giving up north of 128 rushing yards per game. The Lions have a pair of healthy running backs making life increasingly difficult for the opposition, but also enabling some easier passing lanes for Jared Goff.
The Pack are strong against the pass but not if they are overcompensating to stop the run. For a team limiting the pass as much as the Packers – top 10 in opposing passing yards per game – they stand to be shredded right away by both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Both are less than 6-1 to score the first TD on Fanduel, and while both have appeal, there’s a better option.
Expect the Packers to adjust right away, even ahead of time, to try and limit the Lions on the ground. Everyone in the world knows the Pack stink against the run and the Lions have two capable backs. The better value actually lies with Goff’s favorite target in the air, taking advantage of solo coverage or a simple breakdown. Go with what you know, Mr. Goff and keep throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown!
Packers-Lions First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Thanksgiving Day: Amon-Ra St. Brown +650 at FanDuel Sportsbook for 0.25 Units
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