Happy Thanksgiving! As we kick off the holiday season, three NFL games will also kick off this Thursday, the first of which is between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are at home for this one and will look to secure the season sweep over their longtime division rivals. Let’s dive into the best Packers-Lions player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thanksgiving, including a Jordan Love pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model and the rest of our NFL articles for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Packers-Lions Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thanksgiving
Packers-Lions Thanksgiving Odds
Odds via bet365
Packers: +280 | Lions: -360
Packers +7.5: -110 | Lions -7.5: -110
Over 47: -110 | Under 47: -110
Time: Thursday, Nov. 23 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Packers-Lions Player Prop Pick
Romeo Doubs Prop O/U 39.5 Receiving Yards
The Green Bay Packers have ruled out tight end Luke Musgrave. Running back Aaron Jones is unlikely to play, as are wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks, running back Emanuel Wilson and tight end Josiah Deguara. Good luck, Jordan Love.
The team’s top two wide receivers, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, are both healthy at least. We’re locking in some action on Doubs because he leads Watson in targets per game (6.6 to 5.5), route participation (83.9% to 92.4%) and, most importantly, yards per game (39.7 to 36.7).
Doubs gets slept on compared to Watson, a former second-round pick. But while Watson has elite physical traits — his 6-foot-4, 208-pound frame and 4.36 40-yard dash time are a lethal combination — Doubs is the more reliable target, which is why he leads Watson in the aforementioned metrics. Doubs’ targets are also more valuable because they come closer to the line of scrimmage: he owns a 71.6% catchable target rate, while Watson owns a 61.5% rate. With the Packers trading as 7.5-point underdogs, we can expect plenty of passing, and Doubs tallied 95 receiving yards on nine receptions against the Lions earlier this year. Watson caught just two passes for 25 yards in that game.
Packers-Lions Player Prop Pick: Romeo Doubs Over 39.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Packers-Lions Model Player Prop
Jordan Love O/U 32.5 Passing Attempts
With my pick out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It wants action on Green Bay’s quarterback, Jordan Love, to go over 32.5 pass attempts. Love threw the ball 36 times against Detroit back in Week 4. With the Packers listed as sizeable dogs, they should have to pass a bunch.
But how does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!
In this case, the model wants action on Love because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at -128, but ESPN Bet, a public book, has it all the way up at -105. That’s a steal! If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off!
Packers-Lions Player Prop Pick: Jordan Love Over 32.5 Pass Attempts -105 at ESPN Bet
BONUS Packers-Lions Player Prop
Aidan Hutchinson O/U 0.25 Sacks
Happy Thanksgiving! I’m thankful for everyone who reads my content, so here is a bonus Packers-Lions player prop as a treat. When I covered the previous Packers-Lions game, which was also on a Thursday, we bet on Aidan Hutchinson to record over 0.25 sacks. He delivered with a sack on Green Bay’s first dropback. Although he has tallied only 5.5 sacks this season, he is tied for the NFL lead in quarterback pressures (33) with T.J. Watt, who has 11.5. Positive regression is coming.
The Packers’ offensive line is weird. Star left tackle David Bakhtiari remains out, and replacing him is Rasheed Walker, who has a not-terrible PFF grade of 62.5 but an impressive pass-block win rate of 93%. Helping him on the left side is Elgton Jenkins, who has a steady 67.4 grade, but he has been dealing with a knee injury that limited him in practice this week. Green Bay’s offensive line ranks an impressive second in pass-block win rate, but the Packers rank only eighth in sacks allowed per game (2.2).
With the Packers likely to be trailing for most of the day and several of Love’s top receiving options hurt, Green Bay’s offense could look shaky enough for Hutchinson to capitalize with a sack — or at least a half-sack. I locked his one in for odds of -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and you should, too.
Packers-Lions Player Prop Pick: Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.25 Sacks -120 at DraftKings
Packers-Lions Anytime Touchdown Scorer
I was on David Montgomery to score a touchdown in each of the last two weeks, and he delivered twice, both times in spectacular fashion: he scored on a 75-yard breakaway run in Week 10 before scoring the game-winning touchdown with just second on the clock in Week 11. He is now no shorter than -143 to score a touchdown after consecutive weeks in the plus money, so we’re looking elsewhere for our Packers-Lions anytime touchdown scorer bet this Thanksgiving.
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been awesome so far. He has racked up 50 receptions for 492 yards and four scores, which is seriously impressive considering how often rookie tight ends struggle to make the jump to the NFL. LaPorta is coming off a pair of scoreless weeks in which he totaled only seven receptions for 58 yards, but I think this is a great spot for him to bounce back, and we’re getting a good price for it, too.
LaPorta trails only wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in targets inside the 20-yard line (5 to 8) and targets inside the 10-yard line (4 to 7). But while St. Brown’s odds sit only +110, we can find LaPorta priced at +175 on FanDuel. That’s an off-market number: LaPorta is no shorter than +160 elsewhere, and he is +156 at Pinnacle, a sharp book. I can’t guarantee that LaPorta will find paydirt on Turkey Day, but we’re getting enough value here to warrant a wager.
Packers-Lions Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Sam LaPorta +175 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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