Are you ready to delve into some Packers-Niners same-game parlay picks?
All week there’s been clamor about how this line is simply too big for the San Francisco 49ers to cover. Maybe it’s recency bias as the Green Bay Packers are fresh off ending the Cowboys season. Maybe it’s Jordan Love showing a level of poise in the pocket seen by few this year in the NFL. Either way, it’s not going to happen. The 49ers hold a key trend that makes them near impossible to beat, so covering a spread of anything less than 14 is far more attainable than what’s been discussed on TV.
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Packers-Niners Same-Game Parlay Picks
Leg 1. Niners -9.5 ALT (NFL Betting Pick)
There are two ways to move the spread for this game but it depends on a solo play versus a parlay. Since we build the SGP with a base bet, the Niners will win and cover a 9.5 point spread. This dipped to 9.5 later in the week but sits at 10 across most boards. The buyback on 9.5 is telling in its own right as sharp bettors jumped on a number just below the 5th highest key number. Games land on 3, 7, 6, 14, then 10 more often than any other numbers. That’s why a bet of -13.5 is fine for a .5u solo play.
The Niners are unstoppable when they out gain their opponents. They are 21-3 SU with more total yards than their opponents, they also cover spreads, 19-5 ATS in that same stretch. The Packers are a good road team, especially putting points on the board, but San Fran is designed to win any game in any manner, especially with a home field.
The Packers earned their spot in this game; they destroyed a paper champion Cowboys team never ready for prime time. The Niners are rested and have multiple levels of offense. Christian McCaffery will play, and that’s all the news we needed.
Leg 2. George Kittle 60+ Receiving Yards (NFL Player Prop)
The Niners rested players in week 18, including George Kittle who has a fantastic matchup this weekend. Kittle may be the healthiest he’s been in the playoffs in some time, another added advantage to this high powered Niners offense. Brock Purdy has options; Deebo Samuel, Brandon Ayiuk, and McCaffery among others. But Purdy’s tight end might be the secret to getting ahead early.
Kittle does two things well that can kill this Packers defense, especially early in drives. We know he’s a dynamic pass catcher and solid route runner, getting down field in the middle of defenses. With Ayiuk’s speed and Samuel’s versatility, Kittle is already a difficult matchup.
Where things get tricky for the Packers is when the Niners decide to run, or any delayed route by Kittle. Kittle is a heck of a blocker and now becomes a key cog in SF moving the ball on the ground. He can slip behind defensive lines off delayed routes and secure some quick yardage.
Be it down field or quick throws, Kittle is going to be open. It’s now on Purdy to find his tight end for some big plays too, as he’s had long receptions over 30 yards in four of his last five games.
Leg 3. Jordan Love Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
Yes, you can lose a rushing yards prop on a QB kneel down. Thankfully that’s not going to impact Jordan Love running the ball. The Niners are going to win this game, even if SF finds a way to let it be close. The Pack did whatever they wanted against Dallas, including keep Love in a comfortable spot inside the pocket. The lack of disruption to the passing game won’t be anywhere near the same on Saturday in San Francisco.
The general perception of game flow is the Packers will either be playing down big or down enough to keep throwing. Even in a close game, the Packers will just have a little more flexibility in the passing game, than asking Aaron Jones to plow through the Niners front. This was at 7.5 and moved up a yard because of the buy low opportunity. He’s failed to go over this number in three straight games because the Packers won comfortably in those games. Love hit 12 yards rushing four games ago in a 33-30 win over Carolina, a game where similar to today, he will be flushed out and forced to run.
Final Packers-Niners Same-Game Parlay Picks Today
Leg 1: San Francisco -9.5 ALT
Leg 2: George Kittle 60+ Receiving Yards
Leg 3: Jordan Love O 8.5 Rushing Yards
= +575 DraftKings
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