The Las Vegas Raiders will host the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football this week. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into Monday’s Packers-Raiders betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 5 bet!
Packers-Raiders Pick & Betting Prediction | Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Packers: -130 | Raiders: +110
Packers -1.5: -115 | Raiders +1.5: -105
Over 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Monday, Oct. 9 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Packers-Raiders Pick & Prediction
The week of football action will come to a not-so-thrilling conclusion on Monday night. The Green Bay Packers will visit the Las Vegas Raiders. The Packers opened as a 1.5-point road favorite, but they are now a 1.5-point road dog. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels may be losing the locker room — or at least losing some of his veteran players — who are getting tired of playing for a bad coach on a poorly constructed roster. We’re fading the Raiders in this spot even though they’ve gotten some good injury news this week.
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Not much has gone right in Sin City this season. The Raiders rank 20th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 30th in EPA allowed per play. They are a full standard deviation below the league average in my EPA-based power ratings. In contrast, things have gone surprisingly well in Green Bay despite all the injuries — the Packers rank 12th in EPA per play and 18th in EPA allowed per play. They are right at the league average in my EPA power ratings and should only improve from here as players like Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and Elgton Jenkins get healthy.
The Packers will benefit from a few days of extra rest for this one. They may have gotten beat up by the Lions last Thursday, but head coach Matt LaFleur has gone 12-7 ATS with a rest advantage since taking over in Green Bay in 2019. Meanwhile, Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels is just 3-6 ATS with a rest advantage when we count his time in Denver.
The extra rest helped the Packers get some guys back for this one. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is expected to return after missing the last two games. Tight end Luke Musgrave cleared the concussion protocol after last Thursday’s injury scare. Wide receiver Christian Watson and guard Elgton Jenkins cleared the injury report. Cornerback Eric Stokes, who is yet to play a snap this season, is questionable, as is running back Aaron Jones.
The Raiders will get some guys back, too, like quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but wide receiver Davante Adams was a limited participant in practice on Saturday after missing Vegas’ first two practice sessions. Although he should play, he’ll likely be limited. Cornerback Nate Hobbs is out, and fellow cornerbacks Jakorian Bennett and David Long Jr. are questionable. Hobbs leads the cornerback room with a PFF grade of 72.7. Long owns a 73.7 but through only 54 snaps, while Bennett owns an atrocious 45.2 through 223.
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Instead of backing the Packers to cover, I’m buying them to win Week 5’s edition of Monday Night Football outright. The Raiders have shown little fight this year, and their poor rankings in most advanced metrics bodes poorly for this one. Although Jordan Love cracked when pressured heavily by the Lions in Week 4, getting Jenkins back will help keep the pocket intact longer, and the Raiders rank only 24th in pass-rush win rate.
Packers-Raiders NFL Week 5 Pick: Green Bay Moneyline +110 at BetMGM
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