Green Bay needs a win. So does Minnesota. Both teams come into Sunday Night Football at 7-8 on the outside looking in. The Packers are not only behind the Vikings in tiebreakers, but they also trail the Falcons. This is as close to a regular season playoff game as it gets, and the Vikings just made another move at quarterback. Jaren Hall — the rookie out of BYU — will get his second start in the NFL, this time against a Packers defense that’s 30th in the league in stopping the run. It doesn’t take a magnifying glass to see that correlation, which ties nicely into our first touchdown play. Here are the best Packers-Vikings first touchdown bets for Sunday Night Football.
Packers-Vikings First Touchdown Picks for SNF
Green Bay Packers First Touchdown Scorer
Jordan Love needs this win for multiple reasons, but it will have to come against one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL. A top-10 unit in rushing yards allowed, the Vikings will make things as one dimensional as possible for Love — forcing some uncomfortable situations. That doesn’t eliminate a running back from impacting this game, nor does it take him away from a possible first score. In the case of Aaron Jones, it actually bolsters his case at 9-1 on PointsBet.
Jones will clearly face a monster of a challenge in moving the ball on the ground, but that opens lanes for him in the passing game. The first touchdown play doesn’t care how you cross the goal line — pass or catch, just get there. Jones will be heavily involved in quick and underneath routes to establish his versatility. He’s dangerous with the football, so get him in some open space. This also allows Love to take a breath and find a comfort zone.
Jones is the play here. He’s at +900 primarily because his position doesn’t match up well with the opposing defense, but it shorts his ability to score in the air.
Packers-Vikings First Touchdown Picks: Aaron Jones +900 at PointsBet for 0.25 Units
OddsShopper’s betting model found a key pricing disparity in the odds for this Packers-Vikings game. Quarterback Jordan Love is -130 on PointsBet to go over 5.5 rushing yards, which is below the true odds of -138. That makes this wager on Love a +EV Bet by 3%. For the rest of our model’s projections — more than just the NFL — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium!
Minnesota Vikings First Touchdown Scorer
Boring. Another chalk play much like CeeDee Lamb, who scored first in Saturday’s game. While we missed that, don’t consider this chasing by any measure. Ty Chandler simply has the best matchup on the field, and his anytime touchdown market already paid the price. The Vikings are down T.J. Hockenson, playing a banged-up Jordan Addison and starting a rookie quarterback. All signs point to Chandler, who has already performed well in this role, being able to take over as a workhorse back for Minnesota.
Minnesota needs to control the football and establish a lead, but it also can’t just hand over the ball to Green Bay either. Taking the ball out of Hall’s hands helps boost Chandler’s value even at +550. It also keeps Green Bay’s offense cool on the sidelines, as Minnesota is already down one of its top pass rushers in D.J. Wonnum. Chandler is going to see a ton of touches right from the start, so let’s jump on this play now before it takes another hit.
Packers-Vikings First Touchdown Picks: Ty Chandler +550 at PointsBet for 0.25 Units
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