We put together a 3-0 card (4-0 if you count my side bet) last Thursday night in this space, cashing tickets on Will Levis, Najee Harris and the Pittsburgh Steelers. But we’ve got another Thursday game on tap this week, and it’s another unappealing matchup: the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears will do battle. Gross. Let’s dive into the best Panthers-Bears player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday Night Football. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Panthers-Bears Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Panthers: +155 | Bears: -175
Panthers +3.5: -115 | Bears -3.5: -105
Over 38.5: -110 | Under 38.5: -110
Time: Thursday, Nov. 9 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Panthers-Bears Player Prop Pick
Chuba Hubbard Prop O/U 13.5 Receiving Yards
Sometimes the books do math that doesn’t add up. Thursday’s Panthers-Bears game is the perfect example: quarterback Bryce Young’s passing yardage prop sits up in the 215.5-yard range, but when you add up the receiving yardage props for Carolina’s four available receiving options at FanDuel — Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, Hayden Hurst and Chuba Hubbard — you’re left with 127. DJ Chark Jr., the team’s second-leading receiver, is doubtful. Someone must pick up the slack, especially against a Bears defense that ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game.
So who steps up for Carolina on Thursday? It could be multiple players. I expect big things from running back Chuba Hubbard, who has usurped Miles Sanders for the starting job. Hubbard has run double-digit routes in all of Carolina’s games and owns a steady route participation rate of 42.8%. Hubbard is averaging only 11.8 receiving yards per game but should benefit from facing a Chicago defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to running backs (578) on 10.5 yards per reception. Again, if the books are right to project Young for so many passing yards, somebody’s got to do the work in the receiving game.
Panthers-Bears Player Prop Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Panthers-Bears Model Player Prop
Hayden Hurst O/U 13.5 Receiving Yards
Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It’s in agreement with me about Carolina’s receivers: it wants action on an over, too — this one for tight end Hayden Hurst. Hurst is averaging 21.3 receiving yards per game with a median showing of 18, but his receiving yardage prop sits at only 13.5.
The Bears fare worse against running backs in the passing game, but they’re still not great against tight ends. Chicago has allowed 462 total receiving yards to the position on 8.4 yards per reception. The Bears coughed up 65 combined receiving yards to New Orleans’ tight ends last week.
So the model likes this play. How does it work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!
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Panthers-Bears Player Prop: Hayden Hurst Over 13. Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Panthers-Bears Anytime Touchdown Scorer
What DraftKings Sportsbook is doing to Hayden Hurst right now is flat-out disrespectful. You’ll find the veteran tight end listed at odds of +750 to find paydirt over there which is far longer than what another book is willing to sell. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Hurst at +553. FanDuel lists him at +420, while BetMGM lists him at +400. Hurst ranks third among all Carolina Panthers receivers in red-zone targets with three, good for a 12% share. He trails only Adam Thielen and DJ Chark Jr. in the metric. Yes, that’s the same DJ Chark Jr. who is doubtful for Thursday’s game. Hurst has the second-highest share of red-zone targets among available Carolina receivers yet he is +750 to score a touchdown at DraftKings.
Of course, you can argue that the Panthers may struggle to move the ball and won’t have many red-zone opportunities. That would be fair, but this is a Chicago Bears defense that allows a mediocre 3.1 red-zone scoring changes per game — and allows opposing teams to convert 75% of those trips into touchdowns! Tight ends have scored four receiving touchdowns against the Bears this year. Hurst may just have on receiving touchdown to his name on the year, but he is one of the few viable red-zone receiving options available to Bryce Young on Thursday, so getting him at such long odds feels a bit like stealing. We only need him to score one out of every nine times for this bet to be a profitable one.
Panthers-Bears Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Hayden Hurst +750 at DraftKings
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