The Carolina Panthers head to South Florida for a date with Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins this weekend. The Dolphins are trending up, while the Panthers, are, well, trending down. Let’s dive into the Panthers-Dolphins player prop markets to pick the best bet for Week 6, which is a bet on Tua Tagovailoa. If you’re looking for the most up-to-date Panthers-Dolphins odds, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s shop pages!
Panthers-Dolphins Player Prop Bet for Week 6
Panthers-Dolphins Information
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Who: Tua Tagovailoa at Bet365
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Panthers-Dolphins Player Prop Pick for Tua Tagovailoa
The Miami Dolphins are a 14-point favorite over the Carolina Panthers this weekend, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to jump on the overs for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Opposing teams are beating the Panthers on the ground, not through the air. Carolina leads the NFL in opponent rushing play percentage (48.8%) and ranks 29th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.9). This corresponds to a meaningful decrease in passing production: the Panthers rank fifth-best in passing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks (204.4). No quarterback has thrown for more than 300 yards against them, and only one, Geno Smith, cleared the 275-yard mark.
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With Tagovailoa’s passing yardage prop trading at 274.5 across the market, the under stands out as a sharp bet. Tagovailoa has gone over that number in four of his five starts this season, but he has done so in only 16 of his 39 career starts, or 41%. Of course, it’s true that the Dolphins are more efficient under new head coach Mike McDaniel, but it’s not like McDaniel’s scheme is pass-dependent — the Dolphins actually rank just 20th in passing play percentage (56.3%). Tagovailoa may lead the NFL in passing yards (1,614) and yards per attempt (9.7), but he ranks just 12th in passing attempts (166) and is attempting just 33.2 passes per game. OddsShopper’s model agrees with me on this one:
I don’t mean to imply that the Carolina defense is all that great against the pass. It’s not. The Panthers rank 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7) and 12th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. The defensive front also ranks 12th in pass-rush win rate (47%). However, it’s worth noting that several pieces of the Carolina defense are banged up — pass rusher Brian Burns is questionable but is trending in the right direction after practicing in full on Friday. Safeties Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods are both out, but Jeremy Chinn should step up in their absence. Although Miami lost De’Von Achane, the combination of Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed should be enough for the Dolphins to move the ball without relying on Tagovailoa.
Best Panthers-Dolphins Player Prop: Tua Tagovailoa Under 274.5 Passing Yards -110 at Bet365
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