The NFL season is winding down, and the playoff picture becomes a little clearer each week. Tonight’s matchup in Denver pits two teams going in opposite direction — at least, that’s what the Broncos are out to prove. The Patriots are done. Their season has been over for weeks and they are down their top two players, one on each side of the ball. This might be the final year in New England for Bill Belichick, while Sean Payton is reviving his career and team in Denver. Let’s get to the best Patriots-Broncos first touchdown picks for Sunday’s game!
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Patriots-Broncos SNF First Touchdown Picks
New England Patriots Touchdown Scorer
There aren’t many options to bet both first touchdown and for the New England Patriots offense as a whole. It has an all-too-obvious matchup with Ezekiel Elliott facing off against the worst run defense in the NFL — yards per carry per game. Things have certainly looked better for Denver, but it is exploitable on the ground. The Patriots might be bad, but they aren’t dumb — at least, not on purpose. They will come with a plan to get Elliott the football as much as possible.
Sitting at +725 on BetMGM, Elliott is the best option with buy-low opportunity. It’s not so much the opportunity for the running back as much as it is the entire team hitting rock bottom. The other Bill, O’Brien, has no other choice but to get Elliott 18-plus carries and 22-plus touches. Expect a heavy dose of Elliott with the Pats’ first drive, plus they are good enough on defense to stop Denver’s first attempt.
Patriots-Broncos First Touchdown Picks: Ezekiel Elliott +725 at BetMGM for 0.25 Units
Denver Broncos First Touchdown Scorer
Not many can do more with so little than Courtland Sutton. The man is a walking touchdown, scoring in seven of his last nine games — sometimes needing as few as two receptions to score. Russell Wilson clearly trusts Sutton more than any other pass catcher on the team and should immediately work Sutton into the game. Denver’s first drive should play into the Patriots’ main weakness — stopping the pass. At the very least, they aren’t anywhere as good defending the pass as they are the run.
Injuries also factor into this, and it’s still amazing Sutton is a 7-1 shot to score first. The Patriots are down a bunch of guys, but none more severe on defense than Jabrill Peppers. The deep middle and extra help are significantly weakened by the absence of Peppers, so Sutton stands an even greater chance of breaking free. We’ve seen long grabs of 40-plus in two of his last three games. Red zone, goal line or 45 yards out, Sutton is the best chance to score first.
Patriots-Broncos First Touchdown Picks: Courtland Sutton +700 at BetMGM for 0.25 Units
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